Bogor to take APEC one step forward

By Endy Bayuni

BOGOR, West Java (JP): Leaders of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum gather here today to take the grouping one step further forward from their last meeting in Seattle, Washington, last year, on the question of a regional free trade zone.

But whether this will be a giant or a small step for APEC will be determined by the eight-hour informal discussions which the 18 leaders, or their representatives, are slated to hold during their retreat to the Presidential Palace, a grand Dutch colonial- style white building set in spacious green surroundings.

Much will also depend on the ability of host President Soeharto, the oldest and the most experienced statesman in the pack, to steer the discussions towards some kind of commitment on the question of free trade, widely regarded as the most important item on today's agenda.

The 18 APEC leaders will be going to the Garuda Hall, where the meeting will be convened, by themselves. They will be accompanied only by their interpreters.

No aides

No aides will be around them to advise, a condition seen as ideal for the leaders to speak their minds and give their personal visions on the future of APEC and the region.

This is the same format that was used at the first APEC leaders meeting in the quiet of Blake Island in Seattle, 12 months ago. The Blake Island meeting, which was attended by leaders and representatives from 14 of the 15 APEC member countries, then came up with an "Economic Vision Statement" that outlined their views on the economic future of the region.

The vision also refers to the establishment of some kind of a community of Asia-Pacific countries, although it refrained from trying to define the kind of community they will strive for.

Instead, the leaders then decided to ask APEC's Eminent Persons Group (EPG) to once more conduct a study based on the outline of the statement. The EPG report, presented to APEC chairman Soeharto in August, recommends the establishment of a free trade area by the year 2020 if not before.

Today, the leaders are back together again to take up the recommendation. Most of them were present in Seattle.

Second timers

Besides Soeharto, the second timers are U.S. President Bill Clinton, Canadian Prime Minister Joseph-Jacques Jean Chretien, Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating, New Zealand Prime Minister Jim Bolger, Chinese President Jiang Zemin, South Korean President Kim Young- sam Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, Philippine President Fidel Ramos and Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah. Taiwan state minister Vincent Siew and Hong Kong Financial Secretary Sir Hamish Macleod, who are representing their governments, were also in Seattle last year.

The first timers are Japanese Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama (who was elected only last June) and Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad (who declined Clinton's invitation to attend the Seattle meeting). Then there are the three new kids on the APEC bloc: Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, Chile President Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Sir Julius Chan.

President Soeharto, as APEC chairman and host of today's leaders meeting, has made extensive and elaborate preparations for the event, both in terms of the meeting's substance as well as the proceedings.

He has already visited the Bogor Presidential Palace on two occasions in the past two weeks to go over details of the meeting, the arrival of the leaders and the schedule. He also inspected the rooms and facilities and also checked up on the menu.

Informal

Despite elaborate preparations, the Indonesian organizers have repeatedly emphasized that the Bogor meeting today, like in Seattle, is informal.

There are two main reasons for this: One is to create an atmosphere conducive to open and frank discussions without the usual restrictions required under state protocols.

Another reason is to appease China, which is reluctant to participate at a meeting in which its representative has to sit together with those of Chinese Taipei, the official name of Taiwan, and Hong Kong. Host Indonesia has refrained from inviting Taiwan's president or Hong Kong's governor for the same reason.

Despite the informality of it all, including the attire the leaders will be wearing today, the outcome of the leaders' meeting is crucial, especially if it decides on a deadline for a free trade area.

There is also concern, echoed by Malaysia, that the leaders meeting is another step towards the institutionalization of APEC, which as it has constantly reminded other APEC members, was founded as a loose consultative forum.

The leaders meeting was the initiative of Clinton when he envisioned an Asia-Pacific community. President Soeharto apparently decided to hold the second meeting this year in view of the unfinished business left at APEC on the question of the EPG recommendation.

Whether or not there's a need for a third leadership meeting in Japan, the chair of APEC as of January, will also to a large extend depend on Bogor, according to political analysts.

If the national leaders can settle the crucial issue today, then there may not be a need for a third meeting next year. It will then be left to the APEC ministers to work out the details of the APEC free trade.