Bogor meeting expected to endorse Indonesian vision
JAKARTA (JP): Noted Australian economist Ross Garnaut predicted yesterday that the meeting in Bogor today will produce what he terms the Indonesian formula for realizing the long-term, economic vision of APEC leaders.
Garnaut told an open forum on the future of APEC that the Indonesian formula or statement to be issued by the APEC leaders will commit them to liberalization towards free and open trade in the region along the principles of GATT. He also projected that the leaders will set a target date for that goal.
But he cautioned the forum's participants about the wording "liberalization towards free and open trade in the region" rather than "free trade".
Garnaut, the head of the Department of Economics at the Australian National University, foresees a different pace for different countries for achieving the goal.
But rather than repeating the reservations on part of some developing members of APEC economies regarding the timetable, Garnaut expressed doubt as to whether even the United States can implement genuinely free trade by the year 2010.
Garnaut spoke after C. Fred Bergsten, chairman of the Eminent Persons Group (EPG), briefed the hundreds of participants who filled the Ballroom of the Dai-Ichi Hotel to capacity, on the thoughts behind the EPG Report and the convergence of views and vigorous discourses among the EPG members before concluding their report.
The open forum, held under the theme "APEC: Where do we go from here", presented 12 speakers. The one-day meeting, which was opened with an address by Chile's Economics Minister Alvaro Garcia Hurtado, was jointly organized by the Indonesian National Committee for the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The EPG has recommended to the APEC leaders specified proposals for realizing the APEC long-term vision of free trade and investment liberalization in the region.
Recommendations
The recommendations call for the developed members to achieve the goal fully by the year 2010, the newly-industrializing members by 2015 and the least developed ones by 2020.
Garnaut noted that even for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan it is a big step to announce a goal of free trade in agriculture.
"It is something new for the United States to commit itself even to treating Chinese imports on the same basis as other economies," he added.
In China, Garnaut said, the debate about liberalizing agricultural trade has barely begun.
Garnaut acknowledged that even though the commitments will be to a direction of movement rather than an end point, they will represent a major shift in the Asia- Pacific landscape on protection and trade liberalization.
He stressed the importance of the APEC leaders's reaffirming the principle of non-discriminatory trade liberalization as that assertion would end the debates about the character of APEC free trade.
Mari Pangestu, head of the CSIS Economics Department, shared Garnaut's view that the best thing that could come out of the leaders' meeting would be a call for free trade in the region on a non-discriminatory most-favored nation basis by a certain time frame, say the year 2020.
"But it is highly unlikely that more details and substance can be agreed upon at the this APEC meeting," she pointed out.
Mari argued nonetheless that a lot of progress towards the goal of enhancing trade and investment flows in the region could be achieved through trade and investment facilitation programs without resorting to tariff cuts and reduction of non-tariff barriers.
She defined trade and investment facilitation programs as agreements, programs and initiatives to achieve greater consistency of policies, standards, or procedures that will reduce transaction costs and technical barriers.
In this context, Mari welcomed the endorsement by the APEC Ministerial Meeting over the weekend of the principles of a non- binding investment code and the work underway to harmonize standards and conformance and customs procedures.(vin)