Bogor meeting expected to endorse Indonesian vision

Bogor meeting expected to endorse Indonesian vision

JAKARTA (JP): Noted Australian economist Ross Garnaut
predicted yesterday that the meeting in Bogor today will produce
what he terms the Indonesian formula for realizing the long-term,
economic vision of APEC leaders.

Garnaut told an open forum on the future of APEC that the
Indonesian formula or statement to be issued by the APEC leaders
will commit them to liberalization towards free and open trade in
the region along the principles of GATT. He also projected that
the leaders will set a target date for that goal.

But he cautioned the forum's participants about the wording
"liberalization towards free and open trade in the region" rather
than "free trade".

Garnaut, the head of the Department of Economics at the
Australian National University, foresees a different pace for
different countries for achieving the goal.

But rather than repeating the reservations on part of some
developing members of APEC economies regarding the timetable,
Garnaut expressed doubt as to whether even the United States can
implement genuinely free trade by the year 2010.

Garnaut spoke after C. Fred Bergsten, chairman of the Eminent
Persons Group (EPG), briefed the hundreds of participants who
filled the Ballroom of the Dai-Ichi Hotel to capacity, on the
thoughts behind the EPG Report and the convergence of views and
vigorous discourses among the EPG members before concluding their
report.

The open forum, held under the theme "APEC: Where do we go
from here", presented 12 speakers. The one-day meeting, which was
opened with an address by Chile's Economics Minister Alvaro
Garcia Hurtado, was jointly organized by the Indonesian National
Committee for the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council and the
Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The EPG has recommended to the APEC leaders specified
proposals for realizing the APEC long-term vision of free trade
and investment liberalization in the region.

Recommendations

The recommendations call for the developed members to achieve
the goal fully by the year 2010, the newly-industrializing
members by 2015 and the least developed ones by 2020.

Garnaut noted that even for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan it
is a big step to announce a goal of free trade in agriculture.

"It is something new for the United States to commit itself
even to treating Chinese imports on the same basis as other
economies," he added.

In China, Garnaut said, the debate about liberalizing
agricultural trade has barely begun.

Garnaut acknowledged that even though the commitments will be
to a direction of movement rather than an end point, they will
represent a major shift in the Asia- Pacific landscape on
protection and trade liberalization.

He stressed the importance of the APEC leaders's reaffirming
the principle of non-discriminatory trade liberalization as that
assertion would end the debates about the character of APEC free
trade.

Mari Pangestu, head of the CSIS Economics Department, shared
Garnaut's view that the best thing that could come out of the
leaders' meeting would be a call for free trade in the region on
a non-discriminatory most-favored nation basis by a certain time
frame, say the year 2020.

"But it is highly unlikely that more details and substance can
be agreed upon at the this APEC meeting," she pointed out.

Mari argued nonetheless that a lot of progress towards the
goal of enhancing trade and investment flows in the region could
be achieved through trade and investment facilitation programs
without resorting to tariff cuts and reduction of non-tariff
barriers.

She defined trade and investment facilitation programs as
agreements, programs and initiatives to achieve greater
consistency of policies, standards, or procedures that will
reduce transaction costs and technical barriers.

In this context, Mari welcomed the endorsement by the APEC
Ministerial Meeting over the weekend of the principles of a non-
binding investment code and the work underway to harmonize
standards and conformance and customs procedures.(vin)