BMG predicts prolonged dry season

BMG predicts prolonged dry season

Moch. N. Kurniawan, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMG) announced on
Thursday that half of Indonesia would have a prolonged dry season
this year, meaning that crop failures and forest fires were
likely to continue threatening the country.

The BMG's statement came less than a week after a disaster
mitigation team warned that the drought would prevail until the
end of this year, and urged the government to take steps to
prevent, and mitigate the effects of forest fires.

"Fifty-one areas, or 50 percent of the country, will have a
late rainy season this year by up to one month," BMG director
Gunawan Ibrahim told a press conference.

According to the BMG prediction, the rains would fall between
October and March.

The 51 areas included Sukabumi, Subang, Cianjur, Garut,
Tasikmalaya, Majalengka (West Java); most of Central Java and
Yogyakarta; the southern part of East Java; central part of North
Sumatra; South Lampung and the western part of North Lampung; and
southeastern Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, the BMG said.

Some of these areas are the major rice producers in the
country. Thus, the extended dry season could endanger rice
output.

Over the last few months, drought conditions have reportedly
started hitting rice-producing areas and threatening rice output
in West Java, including Indramayu, Sukabumi, Subang; Central Java
including Sukoharjo, Sragen, Blora; and East Java in places such
as Bojonegoro, Lamongan, Ngawi, Jombang and Mojokerto.

But Minister of Agriculture Bungaran Saragih has repeatedly
downplayed fears that the drought would severely hit rice
production.

West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, North Sumatra,
Lampung and Aceh account for more than 60 percent of the
country's annual rice output.

This year, these provinces are expected to produce some 32.2
million tons of rice out of a planned total of 48.5 million tons,
said the Ministry of Agriculture.

Extended dry seasons would also affect the western part of
South Kalimantan, the eastern part of Central Kalimantan, and
Riau, all of which areas are prone to forest and ground fires.

Last month, the annual forest fires blanketed Kalimantan and
northern Sumatra, as well as parts of Malaysia, with choking
haze.

Several people reportedly died or were injured due to the
haze.

The government ignored early warnings about the possibility of
forest fires from the disaster mitigation team earlier this year.

The measures taken to cope with forest fires have also been
minimal, with forestry agencies in Kalimantan and Sumatra even
being reluctant to fully investigate the cause of the fires.

Gunawan went on to say that the extended dry season was due
mainly to the slow warming of the oceans surrounding the
Indonesian islands.

Rainfall ensues when air rises over warm water.

Mezak A Ratag from the National Aeronautical and Space
Institute (Lapan) said the currently weak El Nino effect would
continue to strengthen until early next year, but it would not
contribute significantly to the drought.

"This weak El Nino will have a small impact on us, not like
the El Nino in 1997-1998, which caused a serious drought," he
said.

The El Nino phenomenon refers to the abnormal warming of the
waters in the Pacific Ocean.

This brings warm water from the western Pacific Ocean
(Indonesia and Australia) to the east (western part of South
America), reversing the normal pattern.

Therefore, it sparks serious drought in Indonesia, such as in
1997-1998, but causes heavy rainfall in the western part of South
America.

According to Mezak, a weak El Nino occurs when the phenomenon
does not trigger major movement of warm water from the western
Pacific to the eastern Pacific.

A Ministry of Agriculture director general, Mohammad Jafar
Hafsah, refused to comment on the impact of the prolonged dry
season on rice output.