Thu, 20 Jan 2005

Mark J. Valencia, Honolulu, Hawaii

In an ideal world, rich nations would help the less fortunate in times of natural disasters because it is "the right thing to do." But in the real politik world of the present, it has become painfully and publicly obvious that such assistance to the tsunami victims is not motivated purely by righteousness and generosity.

Indeed it seems that many nations have ulterior motives or will gain political benefits in their giving. For example, the United States has realized somewhat belatedly that many of the victims of the natural disaster are Muslim, and that its robust and visible assistance may go a long way toward winning the "hearts and minds" of the Muslim "street" while ameliorating its overly "muscular" and unilateral foreign image.

In U S Secretary of State Colin Powell's own words the American relief effort will give "the Muslim world and the rest of the world...an opportunity to see American generosity, American values in action." "We are supporting [humanitarian relief] because we believe it is in the best interests of those countries and it's in our own best interest, and it dries up those pools of dissatisfaction which might give rise to terrorist activities". And for the U.S. military the situation offers the opportunity to demonstrate to friends and potential foe alike the awesome U.S. capacity to mobilize and deploy large amounts of troops and equipment at short notice to remote parts of the globe.

The enhanced U.S. "soft power" that has been badly eroded in recent years would be particularly useful in Indonesia with whom relations have deteriorated because of the Iraq war and alleged human rights violations by the Indonesian military. As a result of the emergency, the U.S. has temporarily lifted its ban on military aid to Indonesia imposed by Congress because of those violations.

As a start, the U.S. will supply spare parts for Indonesia's C-130's even though they are alleged to have been used against Aceh rebels. U.S. Rear Admiral Douglas Crowder said he expected the joint efforts to increase the possibilities for resuming full military links with Indonesia which the Bush administration wants and needs in the war against "terrorism".

Analysts also believe Japan sees an opportunity in this disaster to enhance its image as a "real" country worthy of a seat on the UN Security Council. It has promised one of the largest monetary aid packages. And in its most expansive foreign military operation since World War II -- except Iraq, has sent two destroyers and a supply ship and committed more than 1000 troops to the region. Moreover, a senior Defense Agency official, Yoshinori Ohno, the Director-General of Japan's Defense Agency traveled to the region to discuss Japan's emergency aid for tsunami victims.

China is also using this situation to make its debut on the world stage of caring capable nations. Indeed, China is particularly interested in using this opportunity to enhance its influence and deepen its ties with ASEAN and other Asian nations. At the Special ASEAN meeting on the "Aftermath of the Earthquake and Tsunami", Premier Wen Jiabo made several proposals including China-ASEAN Workshops on Tsunami Warning, a China-ASEAN Fund for Public Health, and an Asian Conference on Disaster Reduction, all apparently excluding the United States.

Perhaps the entity with the most to gain or lose in this situation is the United Nations. The Bush Administration has criticized the body the U.S. helped create as bloated, inefficient and ineffective and has bypassed it when it felt it could not get the support it needed. Indeed, in its initial response to the disaster, the U.S. tried to again bypass the UN by cobbling together an ad hoc "core group" of "capable" nations to respond to the disaster. But that group has now been dissolved and responsibility for coordinating a response to what UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan has called "the largest natural disaster the UN has faced" has been turned over to the UN. It now has the opportunity to demonstrate that it can do the job. To fail would be to imperil its credibility, and perhaps even its very existence.

Of course some of the above may be dismissed as the carping of Voltaire -- like cynics. And there does not appear to be any ready alternative than to rely on the response of capable nations, whatever their ulterior motives. But that does not disprove that they exist. In the real politik world of today, recipient countries should accept the assistance with eyes wide open.

Indeed , suspicions and sovereignty concerns are already rising to the fore. Indonesia has asked all foreign troops to leave the Aceh region by end March and has refused permission for pilots on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to continue their training flights over Indonesian waters. And India has barred foreign aid agencies from the Andaman-Nicobar Islands which harbor strategic and sensitive naval installations.

However, there may also be a political "up side" to this catastrophe if one can speak of such amid all the suffering. Countries who do not normally work together nor even have positive relations can repair or build trust and confidence by coming together in this common effort against a common foe -- nature and its aftermath.

This includes the U.S. and its European naysayers in the Iraq war, as well as "problematic" nations for the U.S. like Russia and China. It also includes the U.S. and the UN. If they can work together successfully it will build trust and confidence on both sides and hopefully lead to greater U.S. support for the UN in general.

Nature did not discriminate in its destruction. And the enormity of the disaster and the commonality of suffering could build a feeling of solidarity and trust between Aceh and Tamil separatists and their respective governments and dominant ethnic groups. Hopefully the leadership on both sides of these serious conflicts -- as well as the aid givers -- will seize the opportunity to make compromises that would otherwise be politically impossible and establish firmer ground for negotiations.

And maybe -- just maybe -- this experience will have a lasting spill-over effect in addressing other humanitarian tragedies of our time which have been relatively neglected -- for example in the eastern Congo where 3.8 million have died, or Darfur where millions have been displaced -- as well as those sure to come. Indeed, the reduction of the role of self-centered realpolitik in disaster relief could be the legacy the tsunami victims leave to the world.

The writer is Political Commentator and can be reached at mjvalencia@hawaii.rr.com.