Bleak outlook

Bleak outlook

Yesterday saw a typical collection of news stories from
Indonesia; none of them startling but all of them illustrating
why outsiders are so deeply worried about the country's future.

Violence continued in Aceh province despite an official
extension of a cease-fire. At least eight people were killed on
Borneo in fighting between indigenous tribes and settlers from
other islands.

Efforts to try the eldest daughter of former president
Soeharto on corruption charges were denounced. Economics Minister
Rizal Ramli flew to Washington, hoping to get US$400 million from
International Monetary Fund officials who have lost faith in his
policies.

And, just to top it off, a volcano in eastern Java spewed lava
for the ninth consecutive day.

The Jakarta Government cannot do much about volcanoes. But the
other items are all examples of its continued inability to deal
with man-made problems. President Abdurrahman Wahid provides
faltering leadership at best and may not survive long in office.
Parliament threatens to oust him for reasons ranging from
corruption to incompetence.

But his likely successor, Vice-President Megawati
Soekarnoputri, keeps her sphinx-like stance, and it is not clear
if she wants him to go. She has criticized Wahid obliquely but
has not committed herself to anything in particular. Confusion
and squabbling continue, there is speculation about the army's
intentions and the economy sags even more.

Indonesia needs clear policies and firm leadership to reform
the economy and maintain stability. But Wahid apparently cannot
provide them and there is no great confidence in Megawati. The
outlook continues to be bleak.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong