Bird flu won't hurt economy

Bird flu won't hurt economy

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Minister of Finance Boediono said on Thursday that the bird flu
outbreak would not seriously harm the country's economy.

He argued that bird flu was considered to be as dangerous as
SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), because it had not
killed anybody in Indonesia.

"I think it (bird flu) will not have a (serious) impact on the
economy. But we must move quickly (to curb the disease) so as not
to disrupt the economy," he said.

According to one estimate, the livestock industry accounts for
less than two percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Only
about 4.7 million chickens of the total chicken population of 1.3
billion, or 0.36 percent, has been killed by bird flu.

Tourism and travel experts have also expressed optimism that
tourism, a major contributor to the GDP, would not suffer any
significant impact from bird flu.

Although the government has confirmed a bird flu outbreak in
the country, no human fatalities have occurred as yet.

Ten people in the region have so far died from the disease.

The World Health Organization (WHO), however, has warned that
bird flu could be more dangerous than SARS, especially if a new
viral strain emerges with the ability to spread from human to
human.

The government is projecting the economy to grow by around 4.8
percent this year; last year saw a 4 percent growth.

Boediono's optimism may be justified, considering how Asian
economies performed last year despite the SARS epidemic.

Asia's economies emerged from SARS and the Iraq war with
surprising strength in 2003.

SARS had the biggest impact on Asia's economies in the first
semester of 2003, as was reflected in the slowing of exports,
tourism and the airline industry.

The disease claimed the majority of victims in East Asia and
killed 774 of more than 8,000 infected people globally before
being brought under control in June 2003.

At the height of the crisis, fears abound that the impact of
SARS on the region's businesses would be equally deadly as
regional travel and tourism ground to a near standstill and
economies in the region either shrank or slowed significantly.

The Asian Development Bank estimated SARS cost Asian economies
as much as US$60 billion, or more than 1.5 percent of the
regional GDP.

The Iraq war, which began when SARS peaked, and the terrorist
attacks in Indonesia also affected trade and business sentiments,
while the poor performance of the U.S. economy further created a
gloomy outlook.

Yet the Asian economies proved unexpectedly resilient, thanks
partly to the U.S. economy strengthening in the second half of
2003, China's continued growth and quick recovery in travel and
tourism.

Analysts have said that a turnaround in the U.S. economy and
continuing rapid growth in China's economy will provide a major
boost for other economies in the world this year.