Bird flu won't hurt economy
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Minister of Finance Boediono said on Thursday that the bird flu outbreak would not seriously harm the country's economy.
He argued that bird flu was considered to be as dangerous as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), because it had not killed anybody in Indonesia.
"I think it (bird flu) will not have a (serious) impact on the economy. But we must move quickly (to curb the disease) so as not to disrupt the economy," he said.
According to one estimate, the livestock industry accounts for less than two percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Only about 4.7 million chickens of the total chicken population of 1.3 billion, or 0.36 percent, has been killed by bird flu.
Tourism and travel experts have also expressed optimism that tourism, a major contributor to the GDP, would not suffer any significant impact from bird flu.
Although the government has confirmed a bird flu outbreak in the country, no human fatalities have occurred as yet.
Ten people in the region have so far died from the disease.
The World Health Organization (WHO), however, has warned that bird flu could be more dangerous than SARS, especially if a new viral strain emerges with the ability to spread from human to human.
The government is projecting the economy to grow by around 4.8 percent this year; last year saw a 4 percent growth.
Boediono's optimism may be justified, considering how Asian economies performed last year despite the SARS epidemic.
Asia's economies emerged from SARS and the Iraq war with surprising strength in 2003.
SARS had the biggest impact on Asia's economies in the first semester of 2003, as was reflected in the slowing of exports, tourism and the airline industry.
The disease claimed the majority of victims in East Asia and killed 774 of more than 8,000 infected people globally before being brought under control in June 2003.
At the height of the crisis, fears abound that the impact of SARS on the region's businesses would be equally deadly as regional travel and tourism ground to a near standstill and economies in the region either shrank or slowed significantly.
The Asian Development Bank estimated SARS cost Asian economies as much as US$60 billion, or more than 1.5 percent of the regional GDP.
The Iraq war, which began when SARS peaked, and the terrorist attacks in Indonesia also affected trade and business sentiments, while the poor performance of the U.S. economy further created a gloomy outlook.
Yet the Asian economies proved unexpectedly resilient, thanks partly to the U.S. economy strengthening in the second half of 2003, China's continued growth and quick recovery in travel and tourism.
Analysts have said that a turnaround in the U.S. economy and continuing rapid growth in China's economy will provide a major boost for other economies in the world this year.