Bird flu outbreak impacts Asian politics

Bird flu outbreak impacts Asian politics

Eric Teo Chu-cheow, The China Daily, Asia News Network, Beijing

In Southeast Asia, avian or bird flu has infected poultry in
five of the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries:
Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Indonesia. A regional
meeting convened by Thailand on Jan. 28 in Bangkok clearly
highlighted the flu's "regional dimension" and the utmost
necessity for regional co-operation and a regional approach in
eradicating it.

But avian flu is also affecting politics in Southeast Asia,
given that Indonesia and Thailand are holding elections in 2004
and 2005 respectively.

Any untoward repercussions could have serious political
implications for the incumbents, whose political futures might
now depend on how quickly the virus is eradicated.

In Malaysia and the Philippines, which are holding elections
this year, authorities fear that any avian flu contamination from
their neighbors could complicate the electoral campaigns of the
incumbent administrations.

Politically, the avian flu could be a very powerful electoral
tool. It has clearly created in Southeast Asia a renewed
awareness for good governance and especially government
transparency and accountability.

The buoyant Thai economy could be adversely affected,
depending on how fast the flu is eradicated from the kingdom.
Poultry farmers, especially in the poor rural areas, have had
millions of their chickens culled and are demanding more
compensation and benefits.

Fighting cock farms are also affected, which will likely
result in huge losses for the breeders of these prized birds.

Furthermore, containers of slaughtered chickens are being
returned to Thai ports, resulting in huge losses for Thai poultry
exporters as Thailand is the world's fourth largest chicken
exporter.

Chicken consumption has plunged and overall confidence is
eroding in an economy that was touted as the third fastest-
growing in Asia, after China and Viet Nam, this year.

A sagging economy and confidence would definitely have a major
political impact on Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's re-
election bid in February 2005, should the avian flu epidemic not
be quickly and effectively contained. Thaksin, who has been
dubbed "Thailand's superman," is suddenly feeling vulnerable a
year before the next election.

In Indonesia, which initially resisted the mass culling of its
affected poultry, President Megawati Soekarnoputri finally
succumbed to pressure from the World Health Organization and
international opinion to take drastic action in order to protect
public health.

The move incurred the wrath of poultry farmers across the
country, ahead of crucial legislative and presidential elections
this year.

Public confidence is of the utmost importance to the leaders
and to their electoral chances. This confidence could plunge
should bird-to-human contagion of the virus be confirmed in the
coming weeks.

Government accountability and transparency are now de rigueur
and form the basis for good corporate governance, thanks first to
the SARS epidemic last year, followed by the current avian flu
outbreak.

But perhaps one of the most important lessons unfolding in the
avian flu crisis is the utmost importance and urgency of bridging
the socio-economic gap between richer urban communities and
poorer rural ones.

The rapidity of the flu epidemic has again revealed the extent
of poverty in rural Asia and the socio-economic cleavages in
Asian societies today.

A controversy is already brewing in Thailand over the
"injustice" of culling chicken in the poorer rural farms, given
only modest compensation, whereas poultry bred by big
agricultural conglomerates and those in the Bangkok periphery
need only be vaccinated to be spared.

In Indonesia, there were initial concerns that unfair vested
interests had prevented the culling of millions of fowl,
especially when poor farmers, who had their chicken mass-culled,
were not financially compensated, given the nation's huge budget
deficits. Agricultural Southeast Asia needs urgent and
coordinated socio-economic policies.

The avian flu underscores the importance of a more aggressive
policy in wiping out poverty and balancing gains in society.
Beneath Asia's vertiginous boom still lie some "poor" economies
and marginalized societies, which not only breed diseases but sow
the seeds of social unrest and political destabilization.

Social policies need to be urgently designed and effectively
implemented in order to safeguard stability; this is indeed the
true political dimension and reality check on the current avian
flu epidemic in the region.

ASEAN governments and public opinion are bracing themselves
for a challenging year ahead as threats of avian flu, SARS and
terrorism complicate politics, especially in a crucial electoral
year in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.