BI sees Q1 GDP growth at 4.3-4.8%

BI sees Q1 GDP growth at 4.3-4.8%

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The central bank has predicted economic growth of 4.8 percent
in the first quarter of this year from the same period last year,
citing strong domestic consumption and an expected improvement in
exports.

"Based on the development of various macroeconomics indicators
throughout January, Bank Indonesia sees the economy improving in
the first quarter of the year," it said in a statement issued
after its monthly board of governors meeting.

"Economic growth is predicted to be in the range of 4.3
percent to 4.8 percent during the quarter, in line with the
(central bank) forecast at the beginning of the year."

Predictions of increased domestic consumption, according to
the central bank, were based on the results of its consumer
survey, which saw consumer confidence in the economy improving.

Domestic consumption has been the main driver of the economy
in the past several years, accounting for about 70 percent of the
country's gross domestic product.

The central bank also sees exports, another growth engine,
improving in the first quarter, assuming the current global
economic recovery process is maintained.

"In accordance with the improving world economy -- as can be
seen in the steady rise in global trade volume and the prices of
non-oil and gas commodities, exports will also improve as we
earlier predicted," the statement said.

Exports and investment have been generally weak over the past
several years due to various problems both at home and overseas.
This has caused the economy to grow at an unspectacular less than
4 percent over the last couple of years. Analysts have said that
investment and exports must increase to allow the economy to
enjoy a higher growth rate of 6 percent to 7 percent, which is
necessary to provide jobs for the millions of unemployed.

Bank Indonesia also expects inflation to remain low and the
rupiah to stabilize against the U.S. dollar in the range of 8,300
to 8,500.