Beijing's dangerous game

Beijing announced last Tuesday (July 18, 1995) through the official Xinhua news service that it will conduct week-long (July 21-28) tests of guided surface-to-service missiles by Chinese troops on waters 130 kilometers off Taiwan's northern port city of Keelung

We don't know what type of missile Beijing wants to test in its saber-rattling show-off this time. Maybe it is a M-11, the ones which Beijing sold to a foreign country in 1993 in violation of the international Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Or a M-9 or a more advanced type. According to western experts, the M-11 is a two-tier ground-to-ground rocket that uses solid fuel and is capable of carrying at least 500 kilograms of explosives as far as 400 kilometers.

According to report released last year by ROC on Taiwan's Defense Ministry, Beijing would resort to the use of M-9 and M-11 missiles to attack the western coast of Taiwan in the event of an invasion of the island. Beijing military officials have said they did not need massive military power to reunify Taiwan. All Beijing needs to do is to announce a submarine blockade around the island. Whether the blockade is effective or not, the official said, a large number of Taiwanese business people will immediately flee the country. Then if the government does not come around and negotiate, China could fire one or two precision missiles at high-visibility targets, such as off-shore military installations, to get Taiwan to the table.

Beijing's choice of a location so close to Taiwan for the week-long missile tests harbors several designs which Beijing thinks would serve China's interests. The foremost one is to contain efforts by Taiwan to claim a larger international role which has gained momentum after President Lee Teng-hui's visit to the United States. However, from Taipei's prospective, what ROC is doing internationally is based on the needs of the 21 million people to carry on a normal life. We need room for breath. We are not doing this to challenge Beijing in any way. The more Beijing tries to suffocate Taipei, the more setbacks the grand design of unification will encounter. The announcement of the test itself has already hurt Taiwanese people's feelings towards the mainland.

The missile tests will certainly disrupt the security and peace of this area. The move is likely to bring to the fore the secretly-held fears of many Asian nations that the struggle to succeed Deng Xiaoping will lead to military adventurism. Vietnam, and those nations which still have border disputes with mainland China, will feel particularly vulnerable. Countries laying claim to the Spratly islands may feel a need to reassess their defensive or even offensive capabilities. Beijing's missile test move has introduced a dangerous new element in this part of the world.

ROC on Taiwan will not react to the missile drill unreasonably and will seek mutual interest instead of conflict with PRC. However, the people of Taiwan will not remain idle in defense of their fundamental rights and interests. They don't live to be easily intimidated.

DAVID Y.S. TZOU

Information Director

Taipei economic &

Trade Office, Jakarta