Beijing should engage with, not bully, Taiwan

Frank Ching, Journalist, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

The paper-thin electoral victory of Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian comes as an unpleasant surprise to Beijing.

Mainland China had, understandably, expected his challenger, Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan, to become the new leader, which could have meant that Taiwan would return to the "one China" principle, even if Taiwan's interpretation of "one China" differed from that of Beijing.

Now, it is faced with four more years of Democratic Progressive Party rule, with the pro-independence party determined to write a new constitution for Taiwan two years from now, and to have that charter come into effect in 2008. Despite Chen's denial, this scenario has been condemned by the mainland as a timetable for Taiwan independence.

Chen should realize that Beijing is serious. If Taiwan declares independence, China will have no choice but to take military action. He should also realize that Washington may not come to his aid if the outbreak of war stems from provocative action on his part.

That said, China must give serious consideration to what its Taiwan policy should be for the next four years. The DPP has increased its electoral support from 4.97 million votes in 2000 to 6.47 million votes this year, reflecting a significant expansion of its constituency. Four years from now, the pro- independence party is likely to be even more strongly entrenched.

In 1979, Beijing appealed to its "Taiwan compatriots" as fellow descendants of the Yellow Emperor. Twenty-five years later, instead of preaching brotherhood, Beijing brandishes missiles.

But threats and bullying have proved to be counterproductive, and Beijing must now consider what it should do instead to win the goodwill of the 23 million people of Taiwan. It has to review its policy of the last 10 years, which has resulted in increasing alienation in Taiwan.

If Beijing wants to show that it really cares about its "Taiwan compatriots", it should do everything it can to help, not hinder, Taiwan in all spheres, whether health care, economic ties or international standing. There are many things that can be done.

In 1999, for example, when Taiwan was hit by a devastating earthquake, Beijing was more interested in scoring political points than in seeing to it that international relief efforts were expedited. It created obstacles, insisting no relief be sent to Taiwan without its permission.

This stand did not win any friends in Taiwan. Similarly, last year, when Taiwan was struck by SARS, Beijing blocked efforts to allow Taiwan to become an observer -- not a member -- in the World Health Organization, even as a "health entity", not as a country. Again, the message was that, while paying lip service to their welfare, Beijing was more interested in enhancing its own political status.

If Beijing accords priority to the welfare of the people of Taiwan it will ensure growing ties between Taiwan and the mainland could lead eventually to some form of association between the two sides.

Beijing can also consider offering Taiwan something akin to the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement accorded Hong Kong and Macau. It is already evident that the million or so Taiwanese business people living on the mainland are overwhelmingly in favor of closer ties, and largely voted for Lien Chan.

Beijing knows Taiwan's primary goal is to obtain more international space. The main obstacle is mainland China. It has hemmed in Taiwan at every turn, even where participation in non- governmental organizations is concerned.

To show Taiwanese that it is solicitous of their welfare, Beijing should give Taiwan as much international space as possible. Taiwan should be allowed, indeed encouraged, to take part in international organizations, as long as statehood is not a requirement. The policy of isolating Taiwan only creates anger and frustration among people it calls compatriots.

Beijing should take the long view. The Taiwan issue is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. It should understand that Taiwanese need to be able to live normal lives, to do business, to travel, to hold their heads high. If Beijing can help them do this now, it will be able to reap a bountiful harvest in terms of goodwill in the future. A hard-line policy will be dangerous and counterproductive.