Be prepared to become a good loser next Monday

Leng C. Tan, Jakarta

Quentin Tarantino, the director of movies like Pulp Fiction and Kill Bill, once said that the most interesting time in Hollywood is when they do not know what works anymore. That is when directors take chances. And taking a chance is what a substantial number of Indonesian voters seem to be doing, as reflected in the continued appeal and popularity of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The essence of his popularity can be reduced to this obvious fact: He is the embodiment of people's hope for reform and change, however misguided that may be, it was the case for previous administrations.

But therein lies the appeal of democracy: You have the chance for a peaceful change of government. If you are unhappy with the performance of the current government, it can be voted out of office come the electoral day of reckoning. It has been said that the Megawati government is "defined by underachievement". A litany of grouses can be heard that not enough was done to help the common people get by. Perhaps a new leader can. Indeed Susilo's campaign motto is Bersama Kita Bisa (Together We Can).

But can they? Much has been made of the fact that any Susilo government will have difficulty passing reform bills through the legislature since his party has only 55 legislative seats. The political parties with the largest legislative presence, the Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), can block the passage of bills proposed by the minority President. Such a scenario where the executive branch wrestles mightily with the legislative branch cannot be dismissed. Who will prevail in such a tussle? Will the military come to the aid of the former Army general turned president in the case of a gridlock to help him stare down the opposition?

But all need not be lost if one looks at what the Argentine President Nestor Kirchner did when he took office on a shaky mandate last year after defeating (by default) Carlos Menem in the runoff. He was able to make changes that did not require the support of Congress or the courts. "Presenting himself as a common man fighting against corruption and injustice, he has appealed directly to the public for support. The strategy worked. Kirchner has tackled a reform agenda with the fiery ardor of an independent" (Newsweek, July 7, 2003).

So, there is little likelihood of a honeymoon period in a Susilo presidency because the first hundred days will be critical in establishing himself as the new statesman of Indonesia, one who rules in the public interest and not just another politician- turned-president. In this way, by transforming his popularity stakes into cumulative political capital, Susilo can then "teflon coat" his government and shield it from opposition attack.

Given the political forces amassed by Megawati's PDI-P with Golkar et al., this juggernaut has meant that a Susilo victory is no longer a forgone conclusion. Once this so-called Nationhood Coalition's political machine kicks in, there is no telling the fate of Susilo's political destiny. Never mind what an NGO "democracy salesman," who has been criss-crossing the archipelago, told me of Susilo's immense popularity wherever he went. Never mind the rumor that according to the sultan of Jogja, the wahyu is coming our way. Between divine revelation and political machines (a seeming euphemism for money politics), who do you think will prevail in this material world?

That is not all. Arrayed against Susilo are the country's armed forces. Despite a pledge of political neutrality, the scenario is more complex: The dominant forces are the Army (its top brass) and the Police, both of which are said to be for Mega (recall the al-Zaytun affair as well as reported cases in Banyumas and Medan). Then, there is the civil service, where state officials are also supposed to be neutral, but the scenario again favors the incumbent.

This can perhaps be seen as the "natural" advantages of an incumbent. Witness Megawati's recent visit to West Nusa Tenggara where she handed over government grants worth Rp 17 billion for community development at the district level across the province. Such gestures are being replicated throughout the archipelago.

Such practices are par for the course and not something that Susilo can easily, or legally, counter. On the other hand, given the mood for change in this country that is cutting across party lines and religious divides, this is not something that Mega can easily counter either.

Still Susilo's commanding lead over Mega is slowly being chipped away by the forces aligned with her, principally the Taufik (T1 -- as in Terminator 1) Kiemas political machinery and Akbar Tandjung (T2 -- as in Terminator 2)/Golkar machinery. Mega is not yet the lost cause that some have made her out to be. Last week's polling survey by Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated showed that the gap had closed rather significantly, with 41.3 percent for Susilo and 34.6 percent for Mega. Indeed, one notable commentator has also opined in this newspaper: "The race is too close to call". His comment carries some weight because of his brother's position on Susilo's campaign team.

That is a good thing. According to democracy theorists, this is a prerequisite before elections can be considered authentic: The winner should be unpredictable. But whether that is really a good thing in emerging democracies like Indonesia is not so clear as it can give rise to the losing candidate contesting the validity of the election results, with the ensuing instability. This happened in the Philippines and it took some worrisome time before Gloria Arroyo was finally declared the winner. This too happened in the United States with both Al Gore and George Bush in the 2000 elections but America is an established democracy and can withstand the fallout of the tussle better than emerging democracies like Indonesia can.

It is to be expected that the losing side would not take the defeat well. The former general Wiranto tried to contest the validity of the election results in the first round of the direct presidential contest but was unable to furnish evidence to back up his charges.

It is here that politicians should learn from the PAN leader Amien Rais who took his electoral defeat in the first round graciously. Or they can take a leaf from Akbar Tandjung, who took his defeat at the Golkar convention stoically and did not challenge the validity of the voting results. He knew the rules of the game and abided by them.

So, however close the margin between victory and defeat in the coming second round of the presidential elections, it is hoped that both candidates would accept the election results, whatever the outcome. To do otherwise is really a case of sour grapes. In short, be a good loser.

So, let us hope for a convincing win by either side or there may be trouble ahead. Brace yourself while the Indonesian electorate decides who to vote for on Sept. 20. Will they take a chance with Susilo, who has promised new and better leadership, or with Megawati, who has promised better stewardship of the country? Democracy seems a rather "chancey" thing but Tarantino is right: It has been a "most interesting time" in Indonesia following the elections with bated breath.

The writer is a Visiting Fellow at Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated, Jakarta and can be reached at cheeleng@cps-sss.org