Be prepared to become a good loser next Monday

Be prepared to become a good loser next Monday

Leng C. Tan, Jakarta

Quentin Tarantino, the director of movies like Pulp Fiction
and Kill Bill, once said that the most interesting time in
Hollywood is when they do not know what works anymore. That is
when directors take chances. And taking a chance is what a
substantial number of Indonesian voters seem to be doing, as
reflected in the continued appeal and popularity of Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono. The essence of his popularity can be reduced
to this obvious fact: He is the embodiment of people's hope for
reform and change, however misguided that may be, it was the case
for previous administrations.

But therein lies the appeal of democracy: You have the chance
for a peaceful change of government. If you are unhappy with the
performance of the current government, it can be voted out of
office come the electoral day of reckoning. It has been said that
the Megawati government is "defined by underachievement". A
litany of grouses can be heard that not enough was done to help
the common people get by. Perhaps a new leader can. Indeed
Susilo's campaign motto is Bersama Kita Bisa (Together We Can).

But can they? Much has been made of the fact that any Susilo
government will have difficulty passing reform bills through the
legislature since his party has only 55 legislative seats. The
political parties with the largest legislative presence, the
Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI-P), can block the passage of bills proposed by the minority
President. Such a scenario where the executive branch wrestles
mightily with the legislative branch cannot be dismissed. Who
will prevail in such a tussle? Will the military come to the aid
of the former Army general turned president in the case of a
gridlock to help him stare down the opposition?

But all need not be lost if one looks at what the Argentine
President Nestor Kirchner did when he took office on a shaky
mandate last year after defeating (by default) Carlos Menem in
the runoff. He was able to make changes that did not require the
support of Congress or the courts. "Presenting himself as a
common man fighting against corruption and injustice, he has
appealed directly to the public for support. The strategy worked.
Kirchner has tackled a reform agenda with the fiery ardor of an
independent" (Newsweek, July 7, 2003).

So, there is little likelihood of a honeymoon period in a
Susilo presidency because the first hundred days will be critical
in establishing himself as the new statesman of Indonesia, one
who rules in the public interest and not just another politician-
turned-president. In this way, by transforming his popularity
stakes into cumulative political capital, Susilo can then "teflon
coat" his government and shield it from opposition attack.

Given the political forces amassed by Megawati's PDI-P with
Golkar et al., this juggernaut has meant that a Susilo victory is
no longer a forgone conclusion. Once this so-called Nationhood
Coalition's political machine kicks in, there is no telling the
fate of Susilo's political destiny. Never mind what an NGO
"democracy salesman," who has been criss-crossing the
archipelago, told me of Susilo's immense popularity wherever he
went. Never mind the rumor that according to the sultan of Jogja,
the wahyu is coming our way. Between divine revelation and
political machines (a seeming euphemism for money politics), who
do you think will prevail in this material world?

That is not all. Arrayed against Susilo are the country's
armed forces. Despite a pledge of political neutrality, the
scenario is more complex: The dominant forces are the Army (its
top brass) and the Police, both of which are said to be for Mega
(recall the al-Zaytun affair as well as reported cases in
Banyumas and Medan). Then, there is the civil service, where
state officials are also supposed to be neutral, but the scenario
again favors the incumbent.

This can perhaps be seen as the "natural" advantages of an
incumbent. Witness Megawati's recent visit to West Nusa Tenggara
where she handed over government grants worth Rp 17 billion for
community development at the district level across the province.
Such gestures are being replicated throughout the archipelago.

Such practices are par for the course and not something that
Susilo can easily, or legally, counter. On the other hand, given
the mood for change in this country that is cutting across party
lines and religious divides, this is not something that Mega can
easily counter either.

Still Susilo's commanding lead over Mega is slowly being
chipped away by the forces aligned with her, principally the
Taufik (T1 -- as in Terminator 1) Kiemas political machinery and
Akbar Tandjung (T2 -- as in Terminator 2)/Golkar machinery. Mega
is not yet the lost cause that some have made her out to be. Last
week's polling survey by Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated showed that
the gap had closed rather significantly, with 41.3 percent for
Susilo and 34.6 percent for Mega. Indeed, one notable commentator
has also opined in this newspaper: "The race is too close to
call". His comment carries some weight because of his brother's
position on Susilo's campaign team.

That is a good thing. According to democracy theorists, this
is a prerequisite before elections can be considered authentic:
The winner should be unpredictable. But whether that is really a
good thing in emerging democracies like Indonesia is not so clear
as it can give rise to the losing candidate contesting the
validity of the election results, with the ensuing instability.
This happened in the Philippines and it took some worrisome time
before Gloria Arroyo was finally declared the winner. This too
happened in the United States with both Al Gore and George Bush
in the 2000 elections but America is an established democracy and
can withstand the fallout of the tussle better than emerging
democracies like Indonesia can.

It is to be expected that the losing side would not take the
defeat well. The former general Wiranto tried to contest the
validity of the election results in the first round of the direct
presidential contest but was unable to furnish evidence to back
up his charges.

It is here that politicians should learn from the PAN leader
Amien Rais who took his electoral defeat in the first round
graciously. Or they can take a leaf from Akbar Tandjung, who took
his defeat at the Golkar convention stoically and did not
challenge the validity of the voting results. He knew the rules
of the game and abided by them.

So, however close the margin between victory and defeat in the
coming second round of the presidential elections, it is hoped
that both candidates would accept the election results, whatever
the outcome. To do otherwise is really a case of sour grapes. In
short, be a good loser.

So, let us hope for a convincing win by either side or there
may be trouble ahead. Brace yourself while the Indonesian
electorate decides who to vote for on Sept. 20. Will they take a
chance with Susilo, who has promised new and better leadership,
or with Megawati, who has promised better stewardship of the
country? Democracy seems a rather "chancey" thing but Tarantino
is right: It has been a "most interesting time" in Indonesia
following the elections with bated breath.

The writer is a Visiting Fellow at Soegeng Sarjadi Syndicated,
Jakarta and can be reached at cheeleng@cps-sss.org