Balkan conflict

The latest military developments in Bosnia-Herzegovina are giving cause for optimism that a more equitable solution to the 41-month old war may now be in the offing at last. While the persistent NATO air strikes in the past two weeks have devastated much of the Bosnian Serbs' military installations and supply routes, the Bosnian government troops and their Croats allies have made significant military gains in the past two days or so.

Actually, since the collapse of the Serb separatist forces in Krajina early last month, I have been hoping for a combination of the Moslem infantry and the Croatian fire power pushing back the Serbs from central Bosnia northward, as well as from the Bihac enclave eastward in the general direction of Banja Luka, thereby encircling the Serbs. The latest developments seem, so far, to vindicate my wish.

What I find most unfair in the peace plan proposed by either the Contact Group, or the present United States negotiator, is that it offers the Serbs 49 percent of the territory, which is a lot more than their 32 percent share of the population would warrant. It appears that the proposal is actually rewarding the Serb aggressors with the fruits of their military conquests.

A more equitable solution, in my view, would be that the Serbs should not get more than 32 percent, and, indeed, considering the unspeakable atrocities and crimes they have committed against the Bosnian Moslems, the Serbs should be punished and allotted only, say, 25 percent of the territory.

This could be achieved militarily, by connecting the Bihac enclave with the rest of western and central Bosnia and by severing the narrow Breko corridor in the northeast, thus disconnecting the Serb held territory in northern Bosnia from that in eastern Bosnia. Further, the Serbs should be pushed back from southeastern Bosnia, so that they will no longer be a menace to the Croatian historic city of Dubrovnik on the Adriatic coast.

As regards to the Kosovo area in southern Serbia, which is undoubtedly another dangerous powder keg in the Balkan, I believe it should be allowed to secede, to form a state of its own, or join neighboring Albania. The sustained resistance of the entire ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, against the brutal suppression of their national and human rights by the Serbian administration (set up especially by Slobodan Milosevic) is a well known fact.

So great was the Albanians' opposition that they voted overwhelmingly to secede from Serbia in an election held in May 1992. It is truly ironic that Milosevic was unwilling to give the Albanians in Kosovo the same right of self-determination that he demanded for the Serbs in Bosnia.

In retrospect, I think excessive greed and the intransigent nature of the Serbs are the root causes of the tragedy in both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo. During the so-called first Yugoslavia period (1918-1941), for instance, the Serbs monopolized all the important posts, of prime minister, foreign minister, interior minister and defense minister in every single cabinet.

Likewise, in the second Yugoslavia period (1945-1992) the Serbs again played a disproportionately large role in the state administration and the armed forces. And until recently, the Serbs also insisted to take 70 percent of the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina for their Serb Republic.

I do hope that the results of the military operations and political negotiations in the coming weeks, or months will teach the Serbs to be less greedy and less intransigent.

MASLI ARMAN

Jakarta