Bali fallout makes war with Iraq harder

The New York Times, New York

The weekend massacre at an Indonesian nightclub on the idyllic island of Bali, apparently the work of al-Qaeda and local allies, is a horrifying reminder that Islamic extremists who target America and the West may be on the run but are not defeated. Even as the Bush administration readies for confrontation with Iraq, it must take new steps to combat a resurgent, international terrorist threat with no single address or state sponsor.

Most of the nearly 200 people killed and hundreds of others injured on Saturday were foreign tourists, but Indonesia has been badly hurt as well. Its sense of security has been jolted, its stock market is reeling and Bali's economically important tourist industry faces ruinous free fall.

This was the latest and deadliest of several recent assaults. Together they offer evidence that al-Qaeda and its allies have survived the war in Afghanistan and are regrouping to organize new strikes.

Two weeks ago Kuwaiti terrorists opened fire on U.S. marines in the country for joint exercises with the Kuwaiti military, killing one of them. One of the assailants left behind a tape pledging allegiance to Osama bin Laden. On Monday more gunfire was directed at U.S. troops in Kuwait. Late last month a French oil tanker was set ablaze off Yemen in what Paris believes was a terrorist attack. Meanwhile a new tape by Osama bin Laden's top deputy, Ayman Zawahiri, has begun circulating. U.S. authorities believe it was recorded recently.

A reactivated al-Qaeda is a threat America cannot afford to ignore, as President George W. Bush acknowledged on Monday. An array of different strategies will be needed, including heightened cooperation with foreign governments, police and military forces and financial monitoring agencies. Fighting loosely linked and mobile terror cells is an entirely different operation from invading Iraq. Bush said the two could be done simultaneously, and perhaps they can. But fighting terror is partly a battle for Muslim hearts and minds. A war against Iraq is likely to make it harder.

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim country, presents one of the toughest challenges. Law and order are extremely fragile in the sprawling archipelago, while its brutal and corrupt armed forces are politically and professionally unreliable.

Thus far, President Megawati Soekarnoputri has failed to acknowledge the seriousness of the Islamic terror threat. She has also been unwilling to take the steps needed to force the army to become more accountable, and the Bush administration has been reluctant to pressure her to do so. This must now change. Until Jakarta shapes up its policies and security forces, it will be difficult for Washington or anyone else to halt al-Qaeda's inroads there.

The United States continues to run up against conflicts between its desire to bolster its allies in the Islamic world and the need to take a stand against corruption and anti-democratic governments. In Pakistan, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, a crucial U.S. ally, has isolated himself through high-handedness and thwarting of constitutional procedures.

As a result he emerged from last week's legislative elections in a weakened position, not only in relation to the secular parties he unwisely tried to stop but also to a strengthened Islamic fundamentalist political movement.

The war against terror requires Washington to build and lead a broad coalition, using diplomatic as well as military tools, and hold it together for many years to come. It is unclear how war with Iraq will affect this endeavor, but the events of the last few weeks are a reminder that it is likely to make things harder rather than easier.