Avoiding the issues

Amando Doronila Philippine Daily Inquirer Manila

The narrow escape of the country from the stand-off between Congress and the Supreme Court over the impeachment complaint against Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr. has refocused the concern of the business community from the spasmodic political turbulence over the past three months to another more worrisome uncertainty: Who will be the main contenders for the presidency in the May 2004 elections?

The dangers from coup attempts or even coup jitters appear to have subsided after the government demonstrated it is more inept in handling disturbances such as the seizure of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport's Terminal II control tower and the unruly protest demonstrations on Ayala Avenue in the Makati business district, but a wave of executives representing foreign businesses and foreign journalists has descended on Manila, asking questions about how the presidential race is shaping up months before the deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy.

Foreign investors have factored in political turbulence arising from recurrent gridlocks as part of the political landscape, but the fluidity and the unpredictability of the presidential race create uncertainty that bars forward planning. The only certainty is that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is going to be the administration party's presidential candidate and the opposition is still in the midst of its own "selection process."

The muddled economic outlook for the next year is reflected in Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Rafael Buenaventura's statement that "the banking system has proven itself highly resilient in the face of many challenges that seem to constantly beset our economy." He was referring to reports that most bankers were uncertain over the outlook for the coming year in the face of the volatile political atmosphere which they expect to become even more murky in the run-up to the elections.

What's fueling uncertainty is that not one among the few individuals whose names have been mentioned as probable presidential candidates has highlighted economic issues. Even the President has not focused the debate on the May elections on the economy. Nary a word has been heard from anyone in the opposition and not even from a probable third-force candidate -- former senator Raul Roco -- and not from actor Fernando Poe Jr. or Senator Panfilo Lacson. All of them, including the President, have ignored the importance of the economy as an election issue, as though economics is not at all part of the agenda for discussion in the presidential election.

So far, the agenda has been taken over by coup rumors and most recently by the Davide impeachment controversy. After the controversy was defused, the focus of the debates has shifted toward who will be the running mate of President Macapagal-Arroyo and who will be the running mate of the opposition's presidential candidate, although the latter has not even made up its mind as to whom to field against the President. At this stage, even though there's plenty of talk in the wake of the opposition's selection process, called a "road show," the opposition is still having problems forging a "united opposition" with a single candidate.

The question visiting journalists and "firemen" from investment houses ask is, what economic policy or program Roco, Poe, Lacson or whoever aspires to be president stands for and will he be a better economic manager or better alternative than the President they seek to replace. The issue of a Fernando Poe presidency (if he wins, although I contend that his "winnability" or popularity is highly exaggerated) bothers visiting journalists and representatives of risk consultancy houses who have been mapping the contours of the election arena after the dissipation of the Davide impeachment crisis. Another question that keeps on recurring is, what is business tycoon Eduardo Cojuangco up to, after the Supreme Court knocked back the attack mounted by his cohorts in the Nationalist People's Coalition party?

After the crisis, the discourse has even departed further away from the economic issue and toward the prospects of the departure of Joseph Estrada for surgery in the United States. This shift in focus has not helped build confidence that the 2004 elections will give Filipinos a new leadership whose priorities are tilted toward the economy and will be an occasion for political renewal. It is extremely important that both local businessmen and foreign investors have an idea by now what economic environment they can expect after the elections. For example, what would a new Macapagal-Arroyo presidency be like in terms of opportunities of business dynamism, or a Roco presidency, a Poe presidency, or a Lacson presidency?

All of them are evading the concerns and the uncertainties at the back of the head of the businessmen. Addressing these concerns is important because the business community is the engine of growth and economic dynamism. It is true that it is the votes of the Filipino electors and not those of the businessmen that will determine who will be the next president. But even the ordinary voters deserve some clarification from those who aspire to be president what is in store for them after May 2004 -- in terms of jobs, good governance and competent administration, and law and order.

Rather than addressing these issues, the political discourse as of the past few days has already been degraded by the dissemination of smear or "white papers," slandering prospective presidential or vice presidential contenders. This turn of events is undermining confidence in the ability of the electoral process to produce alternatives.