Australia's defense policy on terorism, SE Asia

Peter La Franchi, 'Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter', New South Wales, Australia

A new strategic assessment issued by the Australian Government has identified the Middle East and North Asia as regions of high strategic importance in its national defense outlook, with global terrorism being given priority in near to medium term capability development.

The assessment, Defence Update 2003, is intended to pave the way for a wider global role for the Australian Defense Forces beyond the continental defence focus that has guided national strategic planning for the past 25 years.

Reiterating the findings of the 2000 Australian Defense White Paper, the strategic update says that the most likely role for Australian military forces in the near to medium term will be as part of coalition military forces engaged in operations linked to the war on terror.

The update says that allied operations in Afghanistan are a clear model for future deployments, with Australia providing niche capabilities to supplement more capable coalition forces.

It warns that the potential for military conflict remains real in North Asia with North Korea a clear source of instability, whereas the prospects of open warfare in Southeast Asia remain low. However, it also warns that Southeast Asia is now far more exposed to global developments linked to organized terrorism and new threats from weapons of mass destruction.

The paper says that the Bali attacks in October 2002 "highlighted links between entrenched militant regional groups and global islamist terrorism". It warns that the al-Qaeda network has already been shown to have cells and operatives "in many countries across the Middle East, Europe, Southeast Asia, Africa and the U.S., and it is almost certain that others have yet to be found".

The paper flags a potential rise in nationalist sentiments aligned against both the U.S. and wider western interests. "Washington's strong international posture since September 2001 is evoking popular anti-Americanism, and not just in Muslim countries. So far, hostility is more a complication in U.S. management of international relations than a major limitation on U.S. primacy. Even if broad international support for the U.S. declines, this will not prevent Washington from pursuing a purposeful agenda against serious terrorists, weapons of mass destruction or other threats".

The paper warns that Australia's geographic position is no longer a guarantee of security against long range missile strikes by rogue states and clearly enunciates Australian support for the development of tactical missile defence systems by western states as a means of protecting deployed military units. However, the paper itself remains vague on the wider question of whether this translates to more than generic support for the U.S. national missile defence system.

(Subsequent comments by Australian Prime Minister John Howard and Defense Minister Robert Hill to the Australian media indicated that the qualified position enunciated by the strategic review should be understood as translating to continuing support for this higher order capability).

Australia has been funding low-level research into missile defence technologies for the past five years, including joint U.S.-Australia trials of using Australia's long range Jindalee Operational Radar Network to support missile boost phase detection. Australia is also developing its own ground station for the U.S.' next-generation infra-red satellite early warning system. That station, co-located with a U.S. ground station at Pine Gap in central Australia, is expected to become operational in April this year using direct feeds from the existing U.S. Defense Support Program satellites.

The paper says open conflict on the Korean peninsula could come with little warning, "especially if North Korea's nuclear ambitions and brinkmanship keep tensions high." This position contrasts with the optimistic analysis of the situation presented in the 2000 Australian Defense White Paper. However, Defense Update 2003 also argues that the stand-off is most likely to be "managed through peaceful means" in the near term.

The new strategic review reiterates the largely neutral assessment of the role of China espoused in the 2000 Australian White Paper. It says that "despite tensions early in 2001, U.S.- China relations have stabilized. But strategic competition between the U.S. and China will continue over the next decade, and the possibility of miscalculation over Taiwan persists."

The new review also reiterates a standing preoccupation of Australian Defense Intelligence Organization analyses of China, ie that "while China's economic rise will pose challenges for some countries over the next decade, notably Japan, the consequences for regional stability could be greater if growth stalled or there was social breakdown within China".

The review makes no reference to the issue of west Asian security despite ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan, including the nuclear brinkmanship of late 2001 and early 2002.

Southeast Asia is seen as continuing to suffer from the effects of the 1997 regional economic collapse. The Defense Update paper says that by 2002, gross domestic product levels within the region had returned to pre-crises levels "but per capita incomes had not. Southeast Asian states that were struggling even before the extent of the terrorism problem became clear are being further weakened.

"Slow growth rates, insufficient employment opportunities and economic hardship reinforce popular dissatisfaction with the West as well as their own governments ... In some Southeast Asian countries, these economic factors combine with the misperception that the War on Terror targets Muslims to produce defence, nationalistic reactions."

The paper says these issues are particularly significant in Australia-Indonesia relationships. "Terror apart, Indonesia continues to face issues of poverty, unemployment, democratization, economic recovery, corruption, governance and legal reform. At the same time Indonesia confronts religious, ethnic and separatist challenges to its cohesion and stability. The Bali terrorist attacks and other attacks across the archipelago over the past two years threaten Indonesia's social cohesion, its political stability and its international reputation".

The Defense Update confirms that Australia is exploring a resumption of ties with Indonesia's armed forces on a limited basis to support hostage recovery and hijack resolution following the collapse of force-to-force relationships in 1999. The paper says that "in an environment of heightened terrorist threat, Australian lives could rest on effective cooperation between the two defence forces".

The security situation in the South Pacific is acknowledged by the review to have worsened since the 2000 Defense White Paper with respect to the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.

The paper is more optimistic than the 2000 White Paper in its assessment of Papua New Guinea but continues to express concerns. The earlier paper warned that the viability of PNG was potentially at risk. Defense Update 2003 says that the outlook remains worrying. "Domestically the new Papua-New Guinea Government needs to continue to work to reverse the negative trends -- in particular a stagnant economy, inadequate levels of education and health care, and deteriorating law and order. Ill- discipline in the Papua New Guinea Defense Force in 2001 and 2002 has further undermined confidence in this institution."

The above article was first published in the Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter magazine in its March/April 2003 edition.