Australian threat imaginary

By Arief Budiman

SALATIGA, Central Java (JP): Will visiting Australian Prime Minister John Howard be able to establish a cordial relationship with Indonesia?

The question arises for two reasons. First, during the election campaign, his predecessor Paul Keating kept repeating that Howard would not be able to maintain a relationship with Indonesia's top officials as well as he did. Keating had a good personal relationship with President Soeharto, and many difficult issues between the two countries were solved during his tenure.

Second, the Howard administration's recent termination of certain business facilities for Australian investors has resulted in some disappointment in Indonesia. State Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie expressed this feeling to Australia's foreign minister, Alexander Downer.

Though not a great start for Howard, relationships between countries are not solely dependent on personalities. International relations have different levels and many aspects that are complexly inter-related.

First, there is the business to business relationship (B-B); second is the people to people link (P-P), and third is the G-G relation, or government to government. The G-G link, especially in a country with a democratic political system, is very much influenced by the other two.

As for Indonesia-Australia ties, there is no problem with the B-B relation. Australian businesses invest in Indonesia, and many Indonesian businesspeople invest in Perth, Western Australia. If there is concern about the unequal balance of trade, this is quite natural.

The B-B relationship between the two countries is normal and healthy. Both the Keating and Howard administrations have tried to maintain this good relationship, as has the Indonesian government. The trade balance may be in favor of Australia, but Indonesia is trying to boost exports to make the trade balance more equal and beneficial for both parties.

The P-P relationship is also very good. In fact, it has been too good, and this is the problem. Good relations between the Indonesian and Australian people through NGOs have created tension in the G-G relationship. This has something to do with the different political systems. Australia is a western democracy, while Indonesia has adopted Pancasila democracy, which from a western political standpoint is less democratic, if not authoritarian.

Bilateral cooperation between NGOs covers a wide range of issues, from nuclear energy and human rights to the issue of East Timor. Indonesian NGOs have worked together with their Australian partners to organize an international solidarity campaign to deal with the above issues, much to the dismay of the Indonesian government.

The problem has been intensified by the Australian press, which more or less has the same perception as the Australian people with respect to human rights and democracy in Indonesia. In their perception, Indonesia has grossly violated the principle of human rights and has suppressed the people's democratic rights. The Indonesian government considers this an intervention in its internal affairs.

The situation has made Howard's visit to Indonesia more difficult. As the prime minister of Australia he has to express his people's concerns or else he will have problems winning the next election. However, if he expresses them too strongly, the Indonesian government might be offended.

What will happen is predictable: Howard will say something about human rights and democracy, but he will not push the issues too far. This is exactly what Keating did in order to maintain a good personal relationship with President Soeharto and keep business activities running smoothly between Indonesia and Australia.

Thus, in my opinion, there will be no substantial problem nor substantial change in Australia-Indonesia relations. The conditions and interests of both parties are still the same. No dramatic action will be taken by either party and they will conduct business as usual.

But the condition differs when we talk about the relationships between Japan and Indonesia, or the U.S. and Indonesia. P-P relations between both countries and Indonesia have been good. Cooperation between NGOs in Japan, the U.S. and Indonesia has been going on for a long time.

At present, public opinion in Japan and the U.S. seems to agree that the Indonesian government violated the principle of democracy in its intervention into the affairs of the Indonesian Democratic Party and its handling of the labor union issue. This perception has been reinforced by press reports in the two countries that sympathize with the democratic struggle in Indonesia and the arrest of Muchtar Pakpahan, the noted union leader.

The relationships of the U.S. and Japan with Indonesia have been impaired by a policy that is believed to violate free market principles. Indonesia's national car policy has affected the market for Japanese and U.S. cars in Indonesia, forcing Japan to use diplomatic and economic pressure to persuade Indonesia to amend the policy.

The U.S. has sent Commerce Secretary Mickey Kantor to do the same thing, though Indonesia has maintained its position. Japan has since threatened to take its case to the World Trade Organization, the international institution established to monitor the practice of free trade.

Both the people and the business community in the U.S. and Japan have increased pressure on their respective governments to protest human rights, democracy and unfair business practices in Indonesia. The pressure has resulted in a U.S. Congress resolution condemning the Indonesian government for violating human rights and democratic principles. In the wake of the resolution, which was signed by a number of congressmen, President Bill Clinton postponed the sale of nine F-16 fighter jets to Indonesia.

The postponement has little significance in practical terms, but is highly symbolic nonetheless. The U.S. has shown that it means business in dealing with the issues. We have yet to see what the Japanese government will do to "punish" Indonesia.

Indonesia is having problems with the way the international community sees its handling of human rights and democracy. The situation is aggravated by the tension with the U.S. and Japan, which are Indonesia's most important financial donors. The government could have a serious problem getting foreign loans to fuel Indonesia's economic development if it does not rectify the situation.

In conclusion, I suggest giving more attention to our relationships with the U.S. and Japan rather than Australia, with whom there seems to be no serious problem.

The writer is a sociologist and researcher living in Salatiga, Central Java.