Assessing the Golkar presidential candidate

Budiman Moerdijat, Consultant, Jakarta

While all eyes are now on the sluggish process of election vote counting, there is actually something else just around the corner that will be the deciding factor in forming a coalition in the run-up to the direct presidential election on July 5. That something else is the Golkar convention.

Golkar's convention is scheduled for April 20 during which some 560 delegates from the party's central board, regional chapters and factions will elect the Golkar presidential candidate out of the last six men still standing.

The candidates are party leader Akbar Tandjung, businessman Aburizal Bakrie, Coordinating Minister for the People's Welfare Jusuf Kalla, former Army's Special Forces Commander Prabowo Subianto, media tycoon Surya Paloh and former Indonesian military commander General (ret.) Wiranto.

With all signs pointing to Golkar as the winner of the April legislative election, it is safe to assume, at least theoretically, that whoever comes out of the Golkar convention process has a good chance of becoming president.

But the question is, who among these six Golkar candidates will be attractive enough to voters in July? And secondly, who among these six will be politically attractive to other parties to form a split ticket/coalition?

For the Golkar convention delegates, making the right decision on who would be the best person for the top job is extremely important because it will have a major effect on both the party's long-term strategic interest and coalition scenarios in the run- up to the presidential ballot.

A good, clean, widely acceptable and democratically elected presidential candidate would put out a convincing message that Golkar's rank and file is genuinely committed to reform. In other words, a truly democratic convention is Golkar's only chance to show to the public the party is reforming and it could provide momentum for the party to make a political comeback.

Naming a corrupt or controversial figure as presidential candidate, however, would likely cost Golkar its chance of winning the presidency -- ensuring the party lost the momentum of reform.

Having an unpopular presidential candidate could also limit Golkar's options of forming a coalition with candidates from other political parties. A strong candidate from another party will likely avoid entering into coalition with an unpopular Golkar figure.

For the first time in the history of Indonesian politics public acceptability will be the key success factor and in terms of acceptability there is somebody out there who is already ahead of everybody: Former coordinating minister for political and security affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Barring any further political developments and any political miscalculation on the part of Susilo, it is hard to imagine within the next two or three months that anyone will emerge to eclipse Susilo's popularity, whose party -- the Democratic Party (PD) -- has been doing extraordinarily well in the polls simply because of him.

There is one thing, however, that Susilo has been lacking -- support from a strong political party -- and this is where Golkar comes into the picture.

Susilo understands very well that his party's gain in the parliamentary election is too small for him to create a strong and effective government. He fully realizes he can not do it alone and there is no question one of Susilo's obvious options is to ally himself with the likely winner of the parliamentary election, Golkar.

Mindful of the public perception of him as a reform-minded candidate, Susilo is quick to indicate, however, his willingness to ally himself with Golkar is not unconditional, saying he is only willing to ally with the "reformist" element within Golkar.

Who would that person be?

In the context of not losing the momentum of internal reform, Golkar rank and file must make up their minds quickly who among the six candidates best meets this criteria.

Let's focus on the front-runners, Akbar Tandjung and Wiranto.

Since his acquittal of the corruption charges in February, Akbar has been confident he is eligible to run for president. Moreover, as Golkar party leader he has also been encouraged by his party's performance in the legislative election, a feat Akbar would likely take credit for.

However, if we look at the polls, there has been a yawning gap between Akbar's standing and Golkar's approval rating. According to a poll conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) in March, 23.2 percent of the public supported Golkar, while only 8.4 percent of the public supported Akbar (the same poll indicated 20.9 percent supported Susilo).

What does this all mean? Is Akbar an asset or a liability to the party?

As a first-rate tactician and a often-tested master of political survival, Akbar must be well aware of this gap, so it remains to be seen whether in the end he will decide to go for broke or step back and play a role as a kingmaker.

What about Gen. Wiranto? It is hard for Wiranto to deny the East Timor incidents in 1999 and alleged human rights abuses will continue to cast a shadow over him. Wiranto's excess baggage make him an easy target for Golkar's political opponents.

Voting for Wiranto would also be strategically wrong for Golkar because it is difficult to believe Wiranto will be able to compete against Susilo's popularity. The same situation applies to Prabowo too.

So, who is left? Kalla, Aburizal and Surya.

There has been speculation that Susilo actually alluded to Kalla when he said he is willing to ally with Golkar reformist elements. Some people called this pairing the Dream Team.

But, the main drawback of this scheme is Kalla's public disclosure he is only aiming at the vice presidency. Will Golkar rank and file still strongly support Kalla when they know Kalla's aim is only the No. 2 slot? It is going to be difficult to convince Golkar rank and file not to fight for the top slot when the official announcement of Golkar's likely victory in the legislative election is only a few days away.

Golkar convention delegates are faced with a tough decision. If the choice is going to be between Aburizal or Surya, both men have to come under scrutiny. Between Aburizal and Surya, who has fewer skeletons in the closet? It is also important to consider who among these two figures who can really lead Golkar toward real reform? This is a key factor delegates should consider when selecting a candidate.

The writer is currently working as consultant at Jakarta-based Political Risk and Government Relations consulting firm Van Zorge, Heffernan and Associates