Assessing the Golkar presidential candidate

Assessing the Golkar presidential candidate

Budiman Moerdijat, Consultant, Jakarta

While all eyes are now on the sluggish process of election
vote counting, there is actually something else just around the
corner that will be the deciding factor in forming a coalition in
the run-up to the direct presidential election on July 5. That
something else is the Golkar convention.

Golkar's convention is scheduled for April 20 during which
some 560 delegates from the party's central board, regional
chapters and factions will elect the Golkar presidential
candidate out of the last six men still standing.

The candidates are party leader Akbar Tandjung, businessman
Aburizal Bakrie, Coordinating Minister for the People's Welfare
Jusuf Kalla, former Army's Special Forces Commander Prabowo
Subianto, media tycoon Surya Paloh and former Indonesian military
commander General (ret.) Wiranto.

With all signs pointing to Golkar as the winner of the April
legislative election, it is safe to assume, at least
theoretically, that whoever comes out of the Golkar convention
process has a good chance of becoming president.

But the question is, who among these six Golkar candidates
will be attractive enough to voters in July? And secondly, who
among these six will be politically attractive to other parties
to form a split ticket/coalition?

For the Golkar convention delegates, making the right decision
on who would be the best person for the top job is extremely
important because it will have a major effect on both the party's
long-term strategic interest and coalition scenarios in the run-
up to the presidential ballot.

A good, clean, widely acceptable and democratically elected
presidential candidate would put out a convincing message that
Golkar's rank and file is genuinely committed to reform. In other
words, a truly democratic convention is Golkar's only chance to
show to the public the party is reforming and it could provide
momentum for the party to make a political comeback.

Naming a corrupt or controversial figure as presidential
candidate, however, would likely cost Golkar its chance of
winning the presidency -- ensuring the party lost the momentum of
reform.

Having an unpopular presidential candidate could also limit
Golkar's options of forming a coalition with candidates from
other political parties. A strong candidate from another party
will likely avoid entering into coalition with an unpopular
Golkar figure.

For the first time in the history of Indonesian politics
public acceptability will be the key success factor and in terms
of acceptability there is somebody out there who is already ahead
of everybody: Former coordinating minister for political and
security affairs Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Barring any further political developments and any political
miscalculation on the part of Susilo, it is hard to imagine
within the next two or three months that anyone will emerge to
eclipse Susilo's popularity, whose party -- the Democratic Party
(PD) -- has been doing extraordinarily well in the polls simply
because of him.

There is one thing, however, that Susilo has been lacking --
support from a strong political party -- and this is where Golkar
comes into the picture.

Susilo understands very well that his party's gain in the
parliamentary election is too small for him to create a strong
and effective government. He fully realizes he can not do it
alone and there is no question one of Susilo's obvious options is
to ally himself with the likely winner of the parliamentary
election, Golkar.

Mindful of the public perception of him as a reform-minded
candidate, Susilo is quick to indicate, however, his willingness
to ally himself with Golkar is not unconditional, saying he is
only willing to ally with the "reformist" element within Golkar.

Who would that person be?

In the context of not losing the momentum of internal reform,
Golkar rank and file must make up their minds quickly who among
the six candidates best meets this criteria.

Let's focus on the front-runners, Akbar Tandjung and Wiranto.

Since his acquittal of the corruption charges in February,
Akbar has been confident he is eligible to run for president.
Moreover, as Golkar party leader he has also been encouraged by
his party's performance in the legislative election, a feat Akbar
would likely take credit for.

However, if we look at the polls, there has been a yawning gap
between Akbar's standing and Golkar's approval rating. According
to a poll conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) in
March, 23.2 percent of the public supported Golkar, while only
8.4 percent of the public supported Akbar (the same poll
indicated 20.9 percent supported Susilo).

What does this all mean? Is Akbar an asset or a liability to
the party?

As a first-rate tactician and a often-tested master of
political survival, Akbar must be well aware of this gap, so it
remains to be seen whether in the end he will decide to go for
broke or step back and play a role as a kingmaker.

What about Gen. Wiranto? It is hard for Wiranto to deny the
East Timor incidents in 1999 and alleged human rights abuses will
continue to cast a shadow over him. Wiranto's excess baggage make
him an easy target for Golkar's political opponents.

Voting for Wiranto would also be strategically wrong for
Golkar because it is difficult to believe Wiranto will be able to
compete against Susilo's popularity. The same situation applies
to Prabowo too.

So, who is left? Kalla, Aburizal and Surya.

There has been speculation that Susilo actually alluded to
Kalla when he said he is willing to ally with Golkar reformist
elements. Some people called this pairing the Dream Team.

But, the main drawback of this scheme is Kalla's public
disclosure he is only aiming at the vice presidency. Will Golkar
rank and file still strongly support Kalla when they know Kalla's
aim is only the No. 2 slot? It is going to be difficult to
convince Golkar rank and file not to fight for the top slot when
the official announcement of Golkar's likely victory in the
legislative election is only a few days away.

Golkar convention delegates are faced with a tough decision.
If the choice is going to be between Aburizal or Surya, both men
have to come under scrutiny. Between Aburizal and Surya, who has
fewer skeletons in the closet? It is also important to consider
who among these two figures who can really lead Golkar toward
real reform? This is a key factor delegates should consider when
selecting a candidate.

The writer is currently working as consultant at Jakarta-based
Political Risk and Government Relations consulting firm Van
Zorge, Heffernan and Associates