Asian security without the U.S.

Asian security without the U.S.

The Nation
Asia News Network
Bangkok

The United States is planning to withdraw some 60,000-70,000
of its troops from foreign countries over the next ten years.
That much has been made clear by President George W Bush, though
he has neglected to explain the policy, aimed as it is at the
American voters. On thing is certain, though: If the U.S. does
reduce its troop presence around the world, it will weaken its
security influence, especially in Asia, regardless of its modern
weaponry and rapid deployment capabilities.

At the moment, nobody knows how many U.S. troops will be
withdrawn from Asia, though it is estimated that anywhere from
15,000 to 20,000 troops will be moved out of South Korea. The
Unite States and South Korea have been negotiating this shuffle
ever since South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun came to office.

The new security environment in the Korean Peninsula will give
added importance to the U.S. troop contingent in Japan, which
will not be reduced in the foreseeable future.

Although the U.S. has defense treaties with five countries in
the Asia-Pacific region -- Australia, Japan, South Korea, the
Philippines and Thailand -- only Australia and Japan are
considered true U.S. allies in the sense that they are fully
committed to the U.S.' scheme of things in terms of security.

The U.S. demonstrated the importance it places on its "true"
allies when it formed the international coalition to fight the
war in Iraq and secure the reconstruction effort after major
combat operations were completed.

With China in ascendancy, it is imperative that Japan be
allowed to play a greater security role in Asia as a
counterbalance.

That will definitely not be an easy pill to swallow for some.
The subject of a re-militarizing Japan beyond self-defense
capabilities is still taboo among some Southeast Asian countries,
which bore the brunt of Japanese militarism before and during
World War II.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said recently that Japan
must amend its constitution, especially Article 9, as a
prerequisite to taking a more active role in global security.

Japan's presence in international security will be enhanced
through its bid for a seat on the UN Security Council.

In any case, the U.S.' decision to reduce its overseas
military presence will increase pressure on Japan to take on more
defense and international security responsibilities.

Australia and Japan aside, the U.S.' three other long-standing
allies in Asia do not rank high in the eye of U.S. policymakers
because when push came to shove, they have backed down. A case in
point was the Philippines' decision to pull its troops from Iraq
in response to the demands of a terrorist group.

This was a big let-down for Washington. The U.S. does not want
to this kind of unreliability to take root and is seeking a more
solid basis for its security and military alliances. That is why
Singapore, which has proved to be a more reliable military
partnership, will figure highly in the U.S.'s defense strategy in
Asia in the 21st century.

Certainly, the U.S. will continue to compensate for its
subdued military presence in the region with more sophisticated
weapons systems, new logistical outposts and rapid deployment
forces in countries it considers allies.

Still, the world's only superpower should have learned by now
that these mechanisms can be hampered by unexpected circumstances
on the ground as well as the prevailing public sentiment the host
countries playing host to U.S. forces.

For example, past plans to set up floating arms stockpiles in
the Gulf of Thailand never got off the ground and Thai
policymakers remain reluctant to conclude any agreement that will
entail the presence of U.S. troops, in whatever capacity, within
its territory.

All in all, the U.S. wants Asian countries to take a greater
share of the international security arrangements in the region so
as to lighten the burden on the over-stretched U.S.' military and
the American taxpayers.

If Asian countries fear that the U.S.' lowered military
profile could adversely affect their security then they should
come to their senses by either showing a stronger commitment to
regional security by forming their own alliances or by seeking
out a role in the U.S.' global strategy, like Japan, Australia
and Singapore have done.