Asian security without the U.S.

The Nation Asia News Network Bangkok

The United States is planning to withdraw some 60,000-70,000 of its troops from foreign countries over the next ten years. That much has been made clear by President George W Bush, though he has neglected to explain the policy, aimed as it is at the American voters. On thing is certain, though: If the U.S. does reduce its troop presence around the world, it will weaken its security influence, especially in Asia, regardless of its modern weaponry and rapid deployment capabilities.

At the moment, nobody knows how many U.S. troops will be withdrawn from Asia, though it is estimated that anywhere from 15,000 to 20,000 troops will be moved out of South Korea. The Unite States and South Korea have been negotiating this shuffle ever since South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun came to office.

The new security environment in the Korean Peninsula will give added importance to the U.S. troop contingent in Japan, which will not be reduced in the foreseeable future.

Although the U.S. has defense treaties with five countries in the Asia-Pacific region -- Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Thailand -- only Australia and Japan are considered true U.S. allies in the sense that they are fully committed to the U.S.' scheme of things in terms of security.

The U.S. demonstrated the importance it places on its "true" allies when it formed the international coalition to fight the war in Iraq and secure the reconstruction effort after major combat operations were completed.

With China in ascendancy, it is imperative that Japan be allowed to play a greater security role in Asia as a counterbalance.

That will definitely not be an easy pill to swallow for some. The subject of a re-militarizing Japan beyond self-defense capabilities is still taboo among some Southeast Asian countries, which bore the brunt of Japanese militarism before and during World War II.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said recently that Japan must amend its constitution, especially Article 9, as a prerequisite to taking a more active role in global security.

Japan's presence in international security will be enhanced through its bid for a seat on the UN Security Council.

In any case, the U.S.' decision to reduce its overseas military presence will increase pressure on Japan to take on more defense and international security responsibilities.

Australia and Japan aside, the U.S.' three other long-standing allies in Asia do not rank high in the eye of U.S. policymakers because when push came to shove, they have backed down. A case in point was the Philippines' decision to pull its troops from Iraq in response to the demands of a terrorist group.

This was a big let-down for Washington. The U.S. does not want to this kind of unreliability to take root and is seeking a more solid basis for its security and military alliances. That is why Singapore, which has proved to be a more reliable military partnership, will figure highly in the U.S.'s defense strategy in Asia in the 21st century.

Certainly, the U.S. will continue to compensate for its subdued military presence in the region with more sophisticated weapons systems, new logistical outposts and rapid deployment forces in countries it considers allies.

Still, the world's only superpower should have learned by now that these mechanisms can be hampered by unexpected circumstances on the ground as well as the prevailing public sentiment the host countries playing host to U.S. forces.

For example, past plans to set up floating arms stockpiles in the Gulf of Thailand never got off the ground and Thai policymakers remain reluctant to conclude any agreement that will entail the presence of U.S. troops, in whatever capacity, within its territory.

All in all, the U.S. wants Asian countries to take a greater share of the international security arrangements in the region so as to lighten the burden on the over-stretched U.S.' military and the American taxpayers.

If Asian countries fear that the U.S.' lowered military profile could adversely affect their security then they should come to their senses by either showing a stronger commitment to regional security by forming their own alliances or by seeking out a role in the U.S.' global strategy, like Japan, Australia and Singapore have done.