Asian car market growth likely limited until '05 - Report

Dow Jones, Tokyo

The immediate outlook for the auto industry is brighter in Asia than in Europe or North America, but growth in Asia in the next several years is still expected to be limited, especially due to the relative weakness of Japan, auto-industry consulting firm Autopolis said Thursday.

Autopolis expects auto sales in Asia to rise only 0.3 percent to 11.99 million units this year, "marking an end to the heady growth of the last few years," the consulting firm said in a report.

The Asian market recorded a 11.6 percent rise and a 7.8 percent gain in 1999 and 2000 respectively, after a 3.9 percent fall and a 20.3 percent decline in 1997 and 1998, according to the report.

"Sales of cars and trucks in Asia actually peaked out five years ago - in 1996.It will take until after 2005 for the market to return to 1996 levels, ending a decade of stagnation," Autopolis said.

"Some countries are likely to take even longer...with Japan a major drag. The best opportunities are clearly in China and perhaps in India," the firm said.

Autopolis expects a 3.9 percent fall in auto sales in Asia in 2002 before the market enters a moderate recovery track, marking a 2.5 percent, 4.0 percent and 5.4 percent rise respectively in the next three years. It estimates sales in 2005 at 12.95 million units.