Asia to be center of the world: Naisbitt
JAKARTA (JP): Asia, with China as its driving force, will become the center of the world in the next century, says the master trend analyst John Naisbitt.
Naisbitt, the author of the best-selling books Megatrends and Global Paradox, predicted that 50 years from now, it will become clear that the most momentous global development of the 1990s and the early part of the next century occurred in Asia.
"I have eight major shifts taking place in this region," Naisbitt said in a speech discussing his next book Megatrends Asia at the Jakarta Convention Center on Wednesday night. The book is expected to be released next January.
He described the eight major shifts as follows.
* A shift from the economic dominance of Japan to China. The consideration behind the Chinese dominance is that China is already gaining significant economic dominance overseas, especially in Southeast Asia.
* A shift from government-controlled towards market-driven economy or from government dominance to private sector-initiated economy.
* A shift from export-driven growth to consumer-driven growth. The economies of Asia have thus far relied on exports, but now these economies are increasingly fueled by consumer spending, thanks to the increasing number of people in the middle class and the huge population.
* A shift from farms to cities. The migration of people from rural areas to cities is taking place at a more rapid pace all over the region. The trend is moving from agricultural society to telecommunication-dominated society.
* A shift from tradition to options. Individuals, families, companies and other institutions are increasingly free to choose whatever they consider to be the best for them.
* A shift from labor-intensive to high-technology industries, which have technology, manufacturing resources, computers and telecommunication systems as infrastructure.
* A shift from a male-dominated world to the emergence of women. Women entrepreneurs will be active all over Asia.
* A shift from "worrying" West to "exciting" East, especially in terms of culture.
Indonesia
Commenting on the future of Indonesia in the frame of Asia as the center of the world, Naisbitt said, "Indonesia is very well positioned to be a powerful player in Asia, as well as in the world economy."
During a live talk show, moderated by Achmad Fuad Afdhal of the Bimantara Group, Naisbitt was accompanied by Indonesian economist Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti. The talk show, which was broadcast from 10 p.m. to 11:30 p.m., did not draw as large an audience as expected.
Naisbitt's visit was organized by PT Mutiara Daka Caraka, which plans to publish a reference book on Indonesia, The Next Boom 2020, at the end of this year.
Naisbitt, who holds 12 honorary doctorates in humanities and sciences, has been a visiting fellow at the Harvard University in the United States. In 1991-1992, he was a visiting professor at the Moscow State University in Russia.
His Megatrends is one of publishing's great success stories. It was on The New York Times' best-seller list for more than two years. It has been a best seller in 18 countries, including Japan.
With Patricia Aburdene, Naisbitt co-authored the international best-sellers Re-inventing the Corporation (1985), Megatrends 2000 (1990), Megatrends for Women (1992).
In his presentation before hundreds on Wednesday night, Naisbitt spoke a great deal about the global paradoxes he discussed in his Global Paradox (1994).
"As the world integrates economically into a huge world single economy, the component parts are becoming smaller and more important," Naisbitt said. "And once the world economy becomes larger and larger, the component parts become smaller and smaller."
He repeated some more paradoxes written in his last book, like "the bigger the system, the more efficient must be the parts" or "the more universal we become the more tribal we act" or "think locally, act globally." (rid)