Asia Pacific's evolving security environment

Ali Alatas, Former Foreign Minister, Melbourne, Australia

Since the beginning of the 1990's, the world has gone through a period of such profound and rapid change as rarely experienced in modern history. Yet, so far, the world continues to be plagued by new and unprecedented challenges and problems and by pervasive uncertainties. Violent conflicts, an ugly upsurge in ethnic and sectarian strife and in narrowly conceived nationalism are rampant in many countries and regions.

And international terrorism in its most horrendous form, as recently manifested on Sept. 11, has shown itself to be a deadly threat to the security not only of states but of all humanity. The changing relationship patterns among the major powers is inevitably shaping a new global security environment.

Firstly, the growing force of globalization, with its all- encompassing scope, tremendous impact and myriad implications, both positive and negative. As a phenomenon driven by technological progress and therefore considered inevitable, globalization, in tandem with economic liberalization, has yielded obvious benefits through enlarged markets, faster economic growth and new opportunities in trade and investments. Yet recently, globalization has begun to generate a fierce backlash, not only among developing countries but also among certain groups in developed countries. developing countries, between the strong and the weak.

Secondly, the trend towards change in the global political and economic constellation, from a bipolar to a multipolar structure. It is indeed difficult to gauge how far multipolarism has become a reality in the present post-Cold War world. In political- military terms, the United States undeniably has emerged as the only superpower possessing predominant political and military strength.

Still, as in the Gulf War and in Kosovo, despite possessing superiority in arms, the U.S. has often felt compelled to seek support and legitimation for its actions, primarily from its allies and eventually from the UN Security Council. Thus again, in the wake of Sept. 11, the U.S. held its anger in check and spent weeks putting together an international antiterrorist coalition and securing the support of the UN Security Council before it dropped its first bomb in Afghanistan.

However, in economic and trade matters, the global power constellation can be clearly seen to be moving towards multipolarism, with the rise of new economic centers such as Japan, the European Union and China.

Thirdly, continuing, substantive changes in the meaning of security and of security threats. It should also take into account such non-military threats to security such as structural poverty and backwardness, resource scarcity, population pressures, massive cross-border migrations, and imbalances in international economic relations.

Subsequently, the gradual shift in the nature of armed conflicts, from interstate wars to armed conflict and turmoil within states, as well as the emergence of new types of security problems. They are caused by terrorism, illegal drug trafficking and other forms of transnational crime and gross violations of human rights. And it has given rise to a new concept, that of human security and the evolving phenomenon of humanitarian intervention.

The Asia-Pacific region has, of course, not been immune to the impact of the drastic transformations in the global constellation. The ongoing realignment of relations among the major powers is inevitably also bringing about shifts in the region that will lead to a new regional security environment although the pace of change will not be as fast or as dramatic as in other parts of the world, such as in Europe.

One reason for this, is the great diversity in cultures, in socio-political systems, in levels of economic development, political weight and military strength of the countries in the region. Furthermore, the region lacks the homogeneity that a continent like Europe has achieved through millennia of interaction, although over the past two decades the countries of especially East and Southeast Asia have gone through a phase of phenomenal growth and rapidly expanding economic interaction.

The Asia-Pacific is inhabited by more than half of the world's population. A number of narrow straits and sea-lanes throughout its expanse that are vital to international navigation make it a theater of high strategic value. The physical presence and interests of four major powers, China, Japan, Russia and the U.S., converge here.

Their mutual interactions and their influence on the smaller regional countries will never cease to impact on the economic and political realities of the region. Hence, the dynamics of this quadrangular power constellation, its stability or instability, the tensions, convergencies or realignments that occur within it, will always be among the defining factors in the Asia-Pacific security environment.

The situation is further complicated by the persistence of unresolved territorial conflicts and overlapping claims of sovereignty. These include conflicting territorial claims between Japan and Russia and China and Japan. The China-Taiwan problem remains highly volatile. Another potential flash-point is the South China Sea, where five countries in the region and Taiwan have overlapping claims of sovereignty and territorial jurisdiction on all or part of the Spratly islands.

More recently, a number of major developments have had and will have a significant impact on the emerging security environment of the Asia-Pacific. The 1997-1998 economic crisis which engulfed East and Southeast Asia has not only resulted in economic regression but also in social disarray and political instability in some of the affected countries.

The nuclear tests on the South Asian subcontinent was undeniably a setback to the cause of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, with security implications that may not only be confined to South Asia but may also affect the security equation in East Asia.

Another new factor causing controversy and heightened tension has been introduced by the U.S. plan on National and Theater Missile Defense. Today, these sources of tension and security concerns may have receded behind the dust and smoke of the war raging in Afghanistan as the world is gripped by the threat of international terrorism and the U.S.-led military response to it, but they have by no means ceased to exist.

Yet, there have also been some recent developments in the region that have brought some hope. The most positive of them is the growing rapport between North Korea and South Korea and the Republic of Korea as exemplified by the historic Summit between their leaders in June last year. Although there is still a long way to go towards normalization of relations between the two sides and more peaceful conditions on the Korean peninsula, a new and positive momentum has been created.

This article is excerpted from the writer's speech delivered on Nov. 2, before the AustralAsia Centre of the Asia Society, in Melbourne.