Asia needs economic community

Asia needs economic community

Akira Kojima, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

China and other parts of Asia are embracing possibilities for
further development and the establishment of a regional community
in the 21st century.

However, the development process is not a straight line. There
are uncertainties and risks involved, so strategic cooperation
among Asian countries is essential.

The Cold War that shaped much of the last century has ended,
and the victory of capitalism has been confirmed. The "end of
history" theory attracted people's attention at one time;
however, in reality, history is being created apace, sometimes
bringing turmoil and chaos.

Poland became a new member of the European Union (EU) this
spring. Speaking before a Trilateral Commission meeting early
this month, when horse chestnuts were blooming all over Warsaw,
Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski proudly said: "Welcome to
a united Europe." Over a long period, the EU has grown into a
large European group made up of 25 member countries sharing a
common identity, through strong political will and a philosophy
based on peace and prosperity.

In Asia, in contrast, nations encompass a wide variety of
historic backgrounds, cultures, ethnic groups, and religions.
Such geographic divisions resulted in a lack of common philosophy
and identity in Asia.

However, as Asian economies have been expanding rapidly,
particularly since the mid-1980s, countries have been developing
considerable mutual dependencies, naturally creating a common
regional identity among Asian countries.

Economic development is steering attention away from a past of
poverty and chaos towards a future of potential prosperity in
which everyone can share. As Asian countries have shifted
attitudes towards future-oriented approaches, many regional
conflicts have eased or disappeared.

Serious concerns still remain regarding the Korean Peninsula
but, in general, economic development is creating views focusing
on the future, and is nurturing a cooperative approach rather
than confrontation, while improving security. An Asian-style
security model may be forming, in sharp contrast to other regions
where nations sought peace through political processes but
conflicts and wars between different ethnic groups and religions
erupted when the Cold War ended.

In Asia, regional cooperation and integration has already gone
beyond the level of expectation and discussion, and is already
developing a concrete form.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has added many
members over the years and has been transformed into a
cooperative body for regional development. It has forged an
agreement to liberalize the movement of goods, services,
investment, and capital among member countries by 2020.

I met Professor Richard Cooper of Harvard University at the
Warsaw conference. "It is difficult to establish an Asian union
within the next 10 years," he said, but added that "anything is
possible in 20 to 25 years".

The next 10 to 20 years of global history will feature
accelerating change. Mohamed Noordin Sopiee, chairman and chief
executive officer of the Institute of Strategic and International
Studies Malaysia, said a union of East Asian countries will
feature quick progress, as opposed to the slow pace of EU
integration.

He focuses on the fact that economic integration is increasing
with free trade agreements.

China's surging growth is dominating recent international
economic discussion, but the country has been a great power for
many centuries in its long history.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says
China accounted for an overwhelming 29 percent of combined global
gross domestic product (GDP) in 1820. India was in second place
with 16 percent, France was third with 5.4 percent, and the
United States was in ninth place with a mere 1.8 percent.

To recover its "two lost centuries", China released a plan to
quadruple GDP by 2020. A fourth generation of increasingly
unorthodox senior Communist Party officials are seeking to retain
legitimacy by realizing economic development, and have
accelerated the speed of reform and the opening of the nation to
the world. Since sustained inward investment and secure export
markets are critical issues, China's foreign policy will probably
remain friendly to all for some time.

The arrival of a new great power tends to strain international
order. However, it is important to smoothly integrate China into
the global economy and political order. In addition, there is
great potential for the development of Asia, including China, but
it is not a straight path. Other countries need not be threatened
by China's advancement.

Instead, Japan and the international society need to realize
that cooperation for controlling regional uncertainties and
critical situations is the way to establish an Asian-style
development model and security in the 21st century.

The writer is chairman of the Japan Centre for Economic
Research. This paper is prepared for the Nihon Keizai Shimbun
International Conference on the Future of Asia, to be held in
Tokyo on June 3. The Straits Times is the conference's Singapore
media partner.