Asia needs China's transparency

Asia needs China's transparency

By Rizal Sukma

JAKARTA (JP): During the recent ASEAN Foreign Ministerial
Meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, China once again reiterated its
commitment to stability and security in the Asia-Pacific region.

China's Foreign Minister Qian Qichen stated during the
historic ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) meeting that, "China is not
involved in aggression and expansion, or in seeking hegemony." He
also said that China was not interested in looking for a sphere
of influence.

The same commitments have been repeated by Chinese leaders
over the years, starting long before China was granted the status
of "consultative partner" of ASEAN. Nonetheless, China still
feels that it is necessary to emphasize the point whenever the
opportunity arises.

The reiteration implies that China is fully aware that
regional countries are still suspicious of its intent. The
question is: Why does the suspicion persist? How can it be
overcome?

The question of the "China threat" has always been a major
concern to China's neighbors. It is related to the historical as
well as strategic aspects of Chinese engagement in the Asia-
Pacific region since 1949. During the 1960s, for example, China
was an active supporter of almost all internal communist
insurgences in Southeast Asian countries.

During the height of its rivalry with the former Soviet Union
in the 1970s, China's military attack and later coercive
diplomacy against Vietnam symbolized the country's inclination to
use force to achieve its security interests.

More recently, China's strategic claim in the South China Sea
has also disturbed regional countries. All of these activities
have resulted in a deep suspicion of China's intentions toward
Southeast Asia which persists even until now.

In the post-Cold War era, the misgivings over China's
intentions in the region have become more complicated due to the
lack of transparency in China's defense policy. No matter how
untenable the theory of a regional "power vacuum" is, this theory
remains attractive to regional policy makers, defense planners,
and analysts.

In this regard, China's military build-up is often referred to
as an obvious evidence of China's intention to fill the "vacuum".
Consequently, the military aspects of the so-called "China
threat" have increasingly assumed a greater significance in some
ASEAN countries' perception and policies.

To overcome security challenges in the region, which are in
part characterized by the unpredictability of China's behavior,
it has been proposed that all countries should work toward a
greater military transparency among the ARF participants.

The proposal constitutes an important element of the ongoing
process of Confidence Building Measures (CBM) in the region.

However, it seems that China has some reservations about the
idea, and its attitude on this matter remains an obstacle to a
speedy CBM process.

Why does China have some reservations toward the idea of a
greater military transparency in the region?

The Chinese attitude can be understood by putting it within
the larger picture of China's policy towards regional
multilateral security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific. In
China's view, a multilateral approach towards security, if not
managed carefully, could have some negative impacts on the
independence of its defense strategy and policies.

Even though "complex security interdependence" has become a
reality of the post-Cold War international politics,
"independence" remains the "code word" of China's security
policy.

Nonetheless, China is fully aware that the trend towards
multilateral security arrangements cannot be resisted. Therefore,
while still preferring bilateral arrangements, China has stated
that it would not refuse to participate in multilateral security
forums.

This implies that China has opted for some kind of selective
engagement. For example, in some cases, such as in the recent ARF
meeting, China has been an active participant. But, in some other
cases, such as in the South China Sea disputes, China has
maintained that it prefers a solution through bilateral
negotiations rather than multilateral talks.

In fact, one of the objectives of the multilateral approach
towards security in the region is to defuse tensions in the South
China Sea, a matter which is multilateral in nature.

As a result of its reservations, it is likely that China might
discourage any attempt at establishing region-wide security
arrangements.

It is very likely that the Chinese reservations are also due
to the perceived threat to China's national security that might
come from Japan and the United States. In China's strategic
assessment, only Japan and the U.S. are capable of posing a
military threat to its national integrity and security.

Perhaps, one still remembers the importance Chinese leaders
have put on the perceived U.S. attempts to change China through a
"peaceful evolution".

If China approaches the question of a multilateral security
arrangement with caution, it can be expected that China might
also have some apprehension about the idea of greater military
transparency in the region.

For example, China is not very enthusiastic with regard to the
exchange of defense information through the publication of a
"defense white paper", even though it understands that such
activities would help reduce mutual suspicion between China and
Southeast Asian countries.

For China, revealing its military strength means exposing its
weakness vis a vis the U.S. and Japan. Moreover, "secrecy" is
still an important aspect of China's defense strategy, as it has
been since the era of Sun-tzu.

If China remains committed to the stability and security in
the region, it should gradually change its attitude. Without its
support of the idea of greater military transparency, it would be
difficult for China to convince countries in Southeast Asia that
it has no military ambition in the region.

Similarly, ASEAN should also appreciate China's cautious
policy in the matter. In this regard, joint efforts to formulate
an "acceptable degree of transparency" can be a starting point
for both sides.

Without a common perception between ASEAN and China on this
issue, the task of establishing a lasting peace in Southeast Asia
will be difficult indeed.

The writer is a researcher at the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies, Jakarta, and a Ph.D. candidate at The
London School of Economics and Political Science, the United
Kingdom.