ASEAN's credibility

In the diplomatic efforts to secure stability in Cambodia, ASEAN has accepted the reality of Second Prime Minister Hun Sen's coup. Equally it has accepted the primacy of the position adopted by several Western countries -- Australia included -- that Hun Sen should honor the 1991 Paris peace accords, that there should be free elections by May next year, that the royalist FUNCINPEC party should continue to function, and that there should be a return to co-premiership in Cambodia.

It is encouraging that Cambodian Foreign Minister Ung Huot has asked for outside assistance in holding the May 1998 elections and suggested the presence of foreign observers. He has painted the military overthrow of First Prime Minister Prince Norodom Ranariddh not as a fight between two rival political parties -- Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party and FUNCINPEC -- but as a legitimate action aimed at curbing Khmer Rouge hardliners.

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright appears to have backed away from a previous hardline stance about coordinated international action on Myanmar and Cambodia. But she has challenged ASEAN to play a greater role in improving the human rights performance of the repressive Myanmarese regime, considering ASEAN rejected strong U.S. objections in accepting Myanmar as a member.

Dr. Albright rightly noted that Myanmar's problems now become ASEAN's problems. The message for Myanmar is obvious: ASEAN expects tangible results to flow from its membership. Yet, equally clearly, ASEAN will not intervene directly to secure political change in Yangon. Hun Sen is plainly hostile to outside interference. He is prickly, contrary and unpredictable. Therefore he holds the key to whether ASEAN's new mantle of regional leadership can turn into long-term diplomatic power.

There is substantial incentive in the form of Cambodia's future ASEAN membership and the threat of economic noncooperation. But if Hun Sen rejects ASEAN involvement it will be deeply embarrassing for the organization. It will suffer diminished international credibility while its claim to have established a moral superiority in facing down the West on Asian issues will be severely eroded.

-- The Australian