ASEAN's credibility

ASEAN's credibility

In the diplomatic efforts to secure stability in Cambodia,
ASEAN has accepted the reality of Second Prime Minister Hun Sen's
coup. Equally it has accepted the primacy of the position adopted
by several Western countries -- Australia included -- that Hun
Sen should honor the 1991 Paris peace accords, that there should
be free elections by May next year, that the royalist FUNCINPEC
party should continue to function, and that there should be a
return to co-premiership in Cambodia.

It is encouraging that Cambodian Foreign Minister Ung Huot has
asked for outside assistance in holding the May 1998 elections
and suggested the presence of foreign observers. He has painted
the military overthrow of First Prime Minister Prince Norodom
Ranariddh not as a fight between two rival political parties --
Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party and FUNCINPEC -- but as a
legitimate action aimed at curbing Khmer Rouge hardliners.

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright appears to have
backed away from a previous hardline stance about coordinated
international action on Myanmar and Cambodia. But she has
challenged ASEAN to play a greater role in improving the human
rights performance of the repressive Myanmarese regime,
considering ASEAN rejected strong U.S. objections in accepting
Myanmar as a member.

Dr. Albright rightly noted that Myanmar's problems now become
ASEAN's problems. The message for Myanmar is obvious: ASEAN
expects tangible results to flow from its membership. Yet,
equally clearly, ASEAN will not intervene directly to secure
political change in Yangon. Hun Sen is plainly hostile to outside
interference. He is prickly, contrary and unpredictable.
Therefore he holds the key to whether ASEAN's new mantle of
regional leadership can turn into long-term diplomatic power.

There is substantial incentive in the form of Cambodia's
future ASEAN membership and the threat of economic
noncooperation. But if Hun Sen rejects ASEAN involvement it will
be deeply embarrassing for the organization. It will suffer
diminished international credibility while its claim to have
established a moral superiority in facing down the West on Asian
issues will be severely eroded.

-- The Australian