ASEAN needs East Asian regionalism

By Eric Teo

SINGAPORE (JP): The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is clearly at a crossroads. Its foreign ministers met in Bangkok at the end of July for its 33rd annual meeting. This was followed by the ASEAN+3 Foreign Ministers' Meeting, bringing together the 10 ASEAN countries, together with China, Japan and South Korea and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The ASEAN-10 clearly took stock.

The region is currently facing domestic tensions in most of its member-countries, notwithstanding the internal discord among themselves and the mounting external pressure from outside Southeast Asia.

For example, Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid has been openly challenged by legislators, hostile party leaders, disruptive elements in the Army, some Muslim circles, separatists rebel representatives, student leaders and trade unionists during the recent session of the People's Consultative Assembly.

Thailand's Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai faces an uncertain future as his coalition is fast losing ground and is not certain of being returned to power in the next elections, scheduled before the end of this year.

Vietnam is in a state of semi-paralysis, as its leadership prepares for the next Party Congress next year. Thus major economic decisions would not be taken while waiting for the upcoming leadership consolidation.

Domestically, the Philippines, Loas and Malaysia seem to have also deteriorated. Bombs have recently gone off in both Manila and Vientiane. The Muslim separatist movement in Southern Philippines has once again highlighted the religious tensions in the country and has put a serious damper on its economic development.

Laos has blamed the Hmong resistance for trying to create unrest in the country and has even cast a suspicious eye at Thailand. Malaysia's recent tribulations with the Al Ma'unah cult has brought into focus again the discontentment of its Muslim Malay majority vis-a-vis the Mahathir government which is losing its grip over the Malay electorate in this country.

Brunei is witnessing an unprecedented trial against a member of its royal family for fraud and embezzlement, a truly traumatizing experience for this rich sultanate.

Economically, ASEAN, which is recovering from the Asian economic crisis, is clearly not out of the woods. Furthermore, with the current political and social uncertainties and tensions, its economic woes could be further compounded if foreign investments are less forthcoming.

Indonesia's monetary woes would not necessarily plunge Southeast Asia into another bout of financial crisis, as in 1997, but Indonesia's financial weakness and the dismal state of its economy will definitely dampen prospects for a sustainable recovery in the region.

In fact, many investors have already fled Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines, as the ASEAN region expects a major slow- down in foreign direct investments. This is while other regions of the world, such as Latin America, Europe and even Northeast Asia (China, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) siphon off foreign direct investments to the detriment of ASEAN.

ASEAN, as an institution, has also laid bare its fundamental weaknesses just before and during the Asian financial crisis. No early warning or coordinating mechanism existed or had functioned. ASEAN leadership was conspicuously absent during the crisis. Each ASEAN country fought for its own economic survival.

With the expansion of ASEAN to 10 members, the institution is clearly facing growing impotency in dealing with and coordinating the diverse political, economic and social models, wealth being concentrated in its two smallest member-countries while its three biggest states are badly fractured owing to domestic uncertainties. ASEAN must change and adapt quickly, otherwise, it may become totally ineffective, irrelevant and a mere "sunset organization".

In contrast, Northeast Asia is in a more upbeat mood, following the successful Korean Summit from June 13 to June 15.

There are increasing signs of rapprochement among the four countries in this region, although Taiwan and the Theater Missile Defense issue may still create serious tensions here. The two Koreas reached a historic entente in Pyongyang which was followed by an emotional first mass reunification of "divided" families on Aug. 15, against a highly significant backdrop of rapprochement between the two countries.

Seoul and Tokyo are now negotiating a free trade agreement and will cohost the next World Cup together in 2002. Japan had enormously helped South Korea during the Asian financial meltdown and the latter has lifted cultural restrictions on Japanese films, video games and pop music recently.

Seoul has already moved closer to Beijing in preparing for the landmark Korean Summit, with China emerging as the paramount intermediary between Seoul and Pyongyang.

Although Japan-China relations are still plagued with the scars of World War II and mutual suspicion of each other's leadership role in the region, Sino-Japanese rapprochement has taken place partly stemming from the Asian financial crisis which brought to focus their mutual vulnerabilities and the "over- aggressive" American foreign policy in Asia.

For example, China has acknowledged Japan's unflagging support for its entry into the World Trade Organization and Japan is thankful for full Chinese backing to its "regional currency swap mechanism", which was adopted in Chiangmai last April. There is therefore a sense of an emerging regionalism in this part of Asia.

To this end, ASEAN, while is painfully recognizing its own institutional and geopolitical weakness, has acknowledged the fact that the East Asian region could be much stronger and influential in world affairs if the three major Asian powers up north are eventually brought into the regional picture.

Thus some 10 years after the failed Mahathir-inspired East Asian Economic Caucus, the ASEAN+3 concept is now making headway, very much championed and encouraged by ASEAN.

In fact, ASEAN leaders and their counterparts from China, Japan and South Korea now meet after the annual ASEAN summits and their foreign ministers consult after the annual ASEAN ministerial meetings. Furthermore the ASEAN+3 finance ministers have met in Chiangmai, Thailand, and their economic ministers have met in Yangon, Myanmar, as if to send a clear signal of defiance to the West.

ASEAN's future consolidation and success may now depend on rapprochement and enhanced cooperation with Northeast Asia. ASEAN clearly needs a new impetus, which may ultimately come from Northeast Asia. The ASEAN+3 countries should thus consolidate further as an East Asian regionalism and perhaps even a new Asian entity encompassing both Northeast and Southeast Asia could emerge in the future!

The writer is council secretary of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.