ASEAN needs East Asian regionalism

ASEAN needs East Asian regionalism

By Eric Teo

SINGAPORE (JP): The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is
clearly at a crossroads. Its foreign ministers met in Bangkok at
the end of July for its 33rd annual meeting. This was followed by
the ASEAN+3 Foreign Ministers' Meeting, bringing together the 10
ASEAN countries, together with China, Japan and South Korea and
the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). The ASEAN-10 clearly took stock.

The region is currently facing domestic tensions in most of
its member-countries, notwithstanding the internal discord among
themselves and the mounting external pressure from outside
Southeast Asia.

For example, Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid has been
openly challenged by legislators, hostile party leaders,
disruptive elements in the Army, some Muslim circles, separatists
rebel representatives, student leaders and trade unionists during
the recent session of the People's Consultative Assembly.

Thailand's Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai faces an uncertain
future as his coalition is fast losing ground and is not certain
of being returned to power in the next elections, scheduled
before the end of this year.

Vietnam is in a state of semi-paralysis, as its leadership
prepares for the next Party Congress next year. Thus major
economic decisions would not be taken while waiting for the
upcoming leadership consolidation.

Domestically, the Philippines, Loas and Malaysia seem to have
also deteriorated. Bombs have recently gone off in both Manila
and Vientiane. The Muslim separatist movement in Southern
Philippines has once again highlighted the religious tensions in
the country and has put a serious damper on its economic
development.

Laos has blamed the Hmong resistance for trying to create
unrest in the country and has even cast a suspicious eye at
Thailand. Malaysia's recent tribulations with the Al Ma'unah cult
has brought into focus again the discontentment of its Muslim
Malay majority vis-a-vis the Mahathir government which is losing
its grip over the Malay electorate in this country.

Brunei is witnessing an unprecedented trial against a member
of its royal family for fraud and embezzlement, a truly
traumatizing experience for this rich sultanate.

Economically, ASEAN, which is recovering from the Asian
economic crisis, is clearly not out of the woods. Furthermore,
with the current political and social uncertainties and tensions,
its economic woes could be further compounded if foreign
investments are less forthcoming.

Indonesia's monetary woes would not necessarily plunge
Southeast Asia into another bout of financial crisis, as in 1997,
but Indonesia's financial weakness and the dismal state of its
economy will definitely dampen prospects for a sustainable
recovery in the region.

In fact, many investors have already fled Indonesia, Vietnam
and the Philippines, as the ASEAN region expects a major slow-
down in foreign direct investments. This is while other regions
of the world, such as Latin America, Europe and even Northeast
Asia (China, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan) siphon off foreign
direct investments to the detriment of ASEAN.

ASEAN, as an institution, has also laid bare its fundamental
weaknesses just before and during the Asian financial crisis. No
early warning or coordinating mechanism existed or had
functioned. ASEAN leadership was conspicuously absent during the
crisis. Each ASEAN country fought for its own economic survival.

With the expansion of ASEAN to 10 members, the institution is
clearly facing growing impotency in dealing with and coordinating
the diverse political, economic and social models, wealth being
concentrated in its two smallest member-countries while its three
biggest states are badly fractured owing to domestic
uncertainties. ASEAN must change and adapt quickly, otherwise, it
may become totally ineffective, irrelevant and a mere "sunset
organization".

In contrast, Northeast Asia is in a more upbeat mood,
following the successful Korean Summit from June 13 to June 15.

There are increasing signs of rapprochement among the four
countries in this region, although Taiwan and the Theater Missile
Defense issue may still create serious tensions here. The two
Koreas reached a historic entente in Pyongyang which was followed
by an emotional first mass reunification of "divided" families on
Aug. 15, against a highly significant backdrop of rapprochement
between the two countries.

Seoul and Tokyo are now negotiating a free trade agreement and
will cohost the next World Cup together in 2002. Japan had
enormously helped South Korea during the Asian financial meltdown
and the latter has lifted cultural restrictions on Japanese
films, video games and pop music recently.

Seoul has already moved closer to Beijing in preparing for the
landmark Korean Summit, with China emerging as the paramount
intermediary between Seoul and Pyongyang.

Although Japan-China relations are still plagued with the
scars of World War II and mutual suspicion of each other's
leadership role in the region, Sino-Japanese rapprochement has
taken place partly stemming from the Asian financial crisis which
brought to focus their mutual vulnerabilities and the "over-
aggressive" American foreign policy in Asia.

For example, China has acknowledged Japan's unflagging support
for its entry into the World Trade Organization and Japan is
thankful for full Chinese backing to its "regional currency swap
mechanism", which was adopted in Chiangmai last April. There is
therefore a sense of an emerging regionalism in this part of
Asia.

To this end, ASEAN, while is painfully recognizing its own
institutional and geopolitical weakness, has acknowledged the
fact that the East Asian region could be much stronger and
influential in world affairs if the three major Asian powers up
north are eventually brought into the regional picture.

Thus some 10 years after the failed Mahathir-inspired East
Asian Economic Caucus, the ASEAN+3 concept is now making headway,
very much championed and encouraged by ASEAN.

In fact, ASEAN leaders and their counterparts from China,
Japan and South Korea now meet after the annual ASEAN summits and
their foreign ministers consult after the annual ASEAN
ministerial meetings. Furthermore the ASEAN+3 finance ministers
have met in Chiangmai, Thailand, and their economic ministers
have met in Yangon, Myanmar, as if to send a clear signal of
defiance to the West.

ASEAN's future consolidation and success may now depend on
rapprochement and enhanced cooperation with Northeast Asia. ASEAN
clearly needs a new impetus, which may ultimately come from
Northeast Asia. The ASEAN+3 countries should thus consolidate
further as an East Asian regionalism and perhaps even a new Asian
entity encompassing both Northeast and Southeast Asia could
emerge in the future!

The writer is council secretary of the Singapore Institute of
International Affairs.