ASEAN-Japan's plan
The co-chairs of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Japan commemorative summit, President Megawati Soekarnoputri and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, were evidently happy when they announced on Friday the outcome of the summit to commemorate the 30th year of friendly relations between the regional grouping and the world's second most powerful economy.
The President was happy because ASEAN, and largest member country, Indonesia, would get reap economic benefits from the Tokyo Action Plan. The Prime Minister was satisfied because the 10 countries supported Japanese leadership in achieving the latter's ambition in creating the East Asian Community (EAC), comprising ASEAN countries and their dialog partners Japan, China and South Korea.
It is interesting to note that ASEAN also agreed to enhance political and security cooperation with Japan, including military aspects. This means that the regional grouping has been more acceptable of Japan's rising security role and that Japan is becoming more confident about its relatively new role.
We regard this as a positive development, because it is time for Japan to free itself from its historic trauma and contribute in positive ways to maintain peace, especially in Asia.
ASEAN, especially Indonesia, initially was not very enthusiastic when Koizumi announced his EAC plan in January last year, even at the ASEAN annual summit which was held in Bali in October - where they also met with their dialog partners -- when the Association leaders decided to create the ASEAN community in 2020.
Japanese rejection to sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) was also discouraging for ASEAN. In the words of Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, stole the show by signing the TAC and reiterated his commitment for a speedy free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN. Japan felt it was left behind by China in a territory where Japan has played a dominant economic role for decades.
ASEAN realized that it should play the driving force role from the very beginning of the EAC process, while benefiting from the rivalry of Japan and China, and also from South Korea which is increasingly frustrated by North Korea's unpredictable leadership.
Positively, because ASEAN has a strong interest that Japan and China will remain on good relations for the sake of stability in the region.
China is growing fast. Japanese private companies, the biggest investors and trading partners in the region, are now concentrating their business in China and many of them have been leaving Southeast Asia since the economic crisis in 1997.
Indonesia has probably suffered the most. Their Japanese investment exodus from the region has also triggered other foreign investors to leave. Koizumi's EAC incentive is expected to be able to lure the investors back.
In terms of government to government relations, there is great concern on how long Japan will remain enthusiastic about their ambitious plan to enhance relations with ASEAN. If the decision is based more on the China factor or the temporary global condition, it means once the problems are solved, Japan will loosen its own commitment.
As the Tokyo commitment has no definite time framework it will be easy to find excuses to abandon it. Although we must remember we can not blame only one side because the two parties must maintain the momentum to make the commitment remain relevant. Japan has also pledged to accelerate the FTA process with ASEAN members although the speed is different from one country to another. However as most of the countries are agricultural producers, will Japan be ready to be more open with their products? During the media conference, Koizumi frankly admitted that agriculture issues were politically sensitive for Japan.
At least for the moment, ASEAN countries can not hope to export more farm products unless Japan is ready to be more flexible. Farmers in Southeast Asia will only acknowledge Japanese sincerity when the latter can prove that it is ready to buy more commodities from them. Rhetoric alone will only worsen situation.
There is one example indicating that Japan often fails to understand the needs of its neighbors. When journalists from ASEAN asked for the copy of the Tokyo declaration after the Koizumi-Megawati press conference, Japanese officials told them to check the website. They did not realize that not all of the journalists had time and equipment to print it. It is a very simple matter, but reflects the lack of awareness of the others' needs.
Despite these potential problems, we do hope that the results of the summit will improve the prosperity of the people in Southeast Asia and Japan, and will become a historic document. The consistent hard work and commitment by both sides are the main key for the success to realize the goal of bringing prosperity and security to the people of Southeast Asia and East Asia.
Without such commitment the Tokyo summit will be only be remembered as a merry birthday party, very cheerful but quickly forgotten.