ASEAN-Japan's plan

ASEAN-Japan's plan

The co-chairs of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN)-Japan commemorative summit, President Megawati
Soekarnoputri and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, were
evidently happy when they announced on Friday the outcome of the
summit to commemorate the 30th year of friendly relations
between the regional grouping and the world's second most
powerful economy.

The President was happy because ASEAN, and largest member
country, Indonesia, would get reap economic benefits from the
Tokyo Action Plan. The Prime Minister was satisfied because the
10 countries supported Japanese leadership in achieving the
latter's ambition in creating the East Asian Community (EAC),
comprising ASEAN countries and their dialog partners Japan, China
and South Korea.

It is interesting to note that ASEAN also agreed to enhance
political and security cooperation with Japan, including military
aspects. This means that the regional grouping has been more
acceptable of Japan's rising security role and that Japan is
becoming more confident about its relatively new role.

We regard this as a positive development, because it is time
for Japan to free itself from its historic trauma and contribute
in positive ways to maintain peace, especially in Asia.

ASEAN, especially Indonesia, initially was not very
enthusiastic when Koizumi announced his EAC plan in January last
year, even at the ASEAN annual summit which was held in Bali in
October - where they also met with their dialog partners -- when
the Association leaders decided to create the ASEAN community in
2020.

Japanese rejection to sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation
(TAC) was also discouraging for ASEAN. In the words of Foreign
Minister Hassan Wirayuda, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao,
stole the show by signing the TAC and reiterated his commitment
for a speedy free trade agreement (FTA) with ASEAN. Japan felt it
was left behind by China in a territory where Japan has played a
dominant economic role for decades.

ASEAN realized that it should play the driving force role from
the very beginning of the EAC process, while benefiting from the
rivalry of Japan and China, and also from South Korea which is
increasingly frustrated by North Korea's unpredictable
leadership.

Positively, because ASEAN has a strong interest that Japan and
China will remain on good relations for the sake of stability in
the region.

China is growing fast. Japanese private companies, the biggest
investors and trading partners in the region, are now
concentrating their business in China and many of them have been
leaving Southeast Asia since the economic crisis in 1997.

Indonesia has probably suffered the most. Their Japanese
investment exodus from the region has also triggered other
foreign investors to leave. Koizumi's EAC incentive is expected
to be able to lure the investors back.

In terms of government to government relations, there is great
concern on how long Japan will remain enthusiastic about their
ambitious plan to enhance relations with ASEAN. If the decision
is based more on the China factor or the temporary global
condition, it means once the problems are solved, Japan will
loosen its own commitment.

As the Tokyo commitment has no definite time framework it will
be easy to find excuses to abandon it. Although we must remember
we can not blame only one side because the two parties must
maintain the momentum to make the commitment remain relevant.
Japan has also pledged to accelerate the FTA process with ASEAN
members although the speed is different from one country to
another. However as most of the countries are agricultural
producers, will Japan be ready to be more open with their
products? During the media conference, Koizumi frankly admitted
that agriculture issues were politically sensitive for Japan.

At least for the moment, ASEAN countries can not hope to
export more farm products unless Japan is ready to be more
flexible. Farmers in Southeast Asia will only acknowledge
Japanese sincerity when the latter can prove that it is ready to
buy more commodities from them. Rhetoric alone will only worsen
situation.

There is one example indicating that Japan often fails to
understand the needs of its neighbors. When journalists from
ASEAN asked for the copy of the Tokyo declaration after the
Koizumi-Megawati press conference, Japanese officials told them
to check the website. They did not realize that not all of the
journalists had time and equipment to print it. It is a very
simple matter, but reflects the lack of awareness of the others'
needs.

Despite these potential problems, we do hope that the results
of the summit will improve the prosperity of the people in
Southeast Asia and Japan, and will become a historic document.
The consistent hard work and commitment by both sides are the
main key for the success to realize the goal of bringing
prosperity and security to the people of Southeast Asia and East
Asia.

Without such commitment the Tokyo summit will be only be
remembered as a merry birthday party, very cheerful but quickly
forgotten.