ASEAN gearing up for future challenges

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network/Bangkok

ASEAN is moving forward to strengthen its identity, despite uncertainties and divergences among member countries. To do so, the group must cope with difficult future challenges posed by external and regional exigencies in a more complex world. ASEAN members may have to change some of their habits and mind-sets. But can they?

In the months to come, the international community will find out. When ASEAN leaders meet their counterparts from Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand for the inaugural East Asian Summit (EAS) on Dec. 14 in Kuala Lumpur, they will be entering an uncharted sea.

Often asked is whether East Asia can become a place for more strategic dialogue or if an East Asian Community can be established.

When Japan proposed the idea of an East Asian Community three years ago, it envisaged a much bigger community-building process that would link the region with the broader Asia-Pacific: The participation of Australia and New Zealand as well as India would complement this idea. Yet as the discussions grew thick and the EAS loomed closer on the horizon, it became clear that such grandiose community-building in the broader East Asia region would not be possible.

At first, hopes were high that ASEAN would be more accommodating in allowing non-ASEAN EAS founders to do more and in the process gradually transform the EAS into a region-wide forum for community-building.

But ASEAN leaders will again reiterate that the much-heralded EAS should be just a strategic dialogue forum with a loose structure and no fixed agenda. They will not speak of establishing a secretariat, as Malaysia has suggested. ASEAN will lead and chair the future meetings, very much to the chagrin of Japan. In a nutshell, ASEAN will be calling the shots, as it always has done in the ASEAN Regional Forum.

ASEAN leaders see the EAS as an Asian-type G-8 meeting, which will take up specific themes or issues, including invitations of specific guests. For example in the past year China and India were invited to join in G-8 discussions.

To reaffirm ASEAN's position, ASEAN leaders will sign the Declaration on the ASEAN Plus Three Summit one day ahead of their EAS meeting. The document will make sure that the process that began in 1992 continues. New ASEAN members have been demanding that the ASEAN meeting with China, Japan and South Korea be the main driving force and not be diluted in any way by the new forum.

At the summit, a group of eminent persons will be beginning the preparations for the drafting of a constitution for ASEAN. The group will study future scenarios for ASEAN beyond the current action plan for 2020. Whatever the group agrees to will be reflected in the ASEAN charter. Five of the core ASEAN members have already applied to be part of the group.

The group is expected to complete a charter within a year. Already a draft has been completed by the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta. It encompasses important elements found in all ASEAN documents, including action plans.

In recent years ASEAN states have realized that they have to work closer together to tackle common problems, especially serious cross-border issues such as terrorism, haze, people- and drug-smuggling, and contagious diseases such as bird flu and Sars. The charter will facilitate cooperation on such issues, and at the top of the agenda will be agreement on the ASEAN Convention on Counter-Terrorism, which will allow speedy extradition of persons involved in terrorist acts.

Through increased cooperation, some of the key ASEAN members, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore, hope that the member countries will talk less about the non- interference principle and opt for practical approaches. The discreet pressure from ASEAN governments and MPs on Burma was cited as a good example. As host of the AES, Malaysia has an ambitious plan to turn ASEAN into a hub of globalization and engagement with major powers. Not long ago Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi said he would like to see ASEAN be more open and down to earth. He is now working to make sure that this happens.

At the summit, Malaysia has scheduled a 15-minute meeting between the representatives from ASEAN civil-society organizations and the ASEAN leaders. It will be the first such major encounter, underscoring the host's desire to make ASEAN less elitist. There are at least 50 non-government organizations registered with ASEAN, but only a few, such as ASEAN-ISIS and the ASEAN University Network, are recognized and enjoy regular contact with ASEAN leaders.

One of the greatest challenges ASEAN faces is how to restructure the future of ASEAN-China relations. Early this year a group of eminent persons was set up to prepare a report to be presented to ASEAN leaders at the Kuala Lumpur summit. Likely to be recommended in the report is the idea that ASEAN should figure out how the grouping can use strong ASEAN-China relations to attract dialogue partners like the US and EU so that these blocks too can forge closer ties with ASEAN.