ASEAN flirts with the three big Asian powers

ASEAN flirts with the three big Asian powers

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network,
Bangkok

"Virtual promiscuity" was the term used by an ASEAN delegate
in describing the grouping's simultaneous relations with China,
Japan and India. This is the kind of multiple courtship that
ASEAN likes.

The Sept. 11 attacks and the war on international terrorism
have turned Southeast Asia -- at one point considered a sunset
organization -- into a strategic linchpin in this part of the
world. In addition, Washington's declaration that the region is
the second front on the war on terrorism also prompts these Asian
powers to counter growing U.S. influence. China has already
signed a non-traditional security cooperation agreement with
ASEAN, including terrorism, while India and ASEAN will issue a
Joint Declaration for Cooperation to Combat International
Terrorism at the Bali summit next week.

At this juncture, despite the myriad problems ASEAN has
encountered -- including the global shunning of Burma that
tarnished the grouping's reputation -- it can still flirt with
outside powers.

However, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Japanese Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee
will find out before long at the summit that their relations with
ASEAN are asymmetrical at best and still need a lot of attention
and nurturing.

Indeed, unwavering attention has been the hallmark of China's
policy towards ASEAN after their relations hit an all-time low
over a dispute over the mineral-rich South China Sea in March
1995. ASEAN issued a joint statement at that time deploring
China's actions against the Philippines -- one of the ASEAN
claimants -- over the Mischief Reefs. That was one time that
ASEAN had the courage to stand firm against China.

The dispute, nonetheless, taught both sides a valuable lesson:
They could continue to engage in mutually destructive exercises
through realpolitik or they could opt for more constructive ties
and cooperation. Fortunately, they have chosen the latter path
and persistently stayed the course.

Little wonder, in the past eight years, that China has emerged
as the most pivotal Asian power that is shaping ASEAN and beyond.
Its relations with ASEAN are the most comprehensive in all fields
and at all levels, much to the envy of other dialog partners.

In Bali, ASEAN-Chinese friendship will intertwine even more,
as the ASEAN members will officially become "strategic partners"
with China, followed the successful launching of FTA (Free Trade
Agreement) negotiations last year.

The China-ASEAN Strategic Partnership Joint Declaration will
level ASEAN's political playing field further as it will
encompass security elements, hitherto dominated by the U.S. since
the end of World War II. Like ASEAN, the U.S. and Russia are also
in a strategic partnership with China.

To demonstrate Beijing's goodwill towards the code of regional
conduct, China will in Bali become the first nuclear power to
accede to the 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC). At the
Singapore summit in 1992, ASEAN leaders jointly urged the major
powers to accept the TAC principles, which include the non-use of
force and non-interference in internal affairs as part of the
grouping's diplomacy to prevent meddling from outside powers.

In response to the Chinese challenge, Japan -- ASEAN's biggest
donor and investor -- has already put forward a new framework of
cooperation with the grouping.

Earlier on, Japan expected the proposed Japan-ASEAN Charter to
be signed in Tokyo when their leaders meet on Dec. 11-12 to
commemorate the 25th anniversary of their relations. However, the
ongoing discussions among their senior officials show
difficulties in accepting the Japanese framework.

One ASEAN country has asked Japan to drop the title "charter"
and use a less binding word instead. After all, it argued, Japan
had never demonstrated its willingness to provide a long-term
commitment to the grouping anyway. ASEAN has frequently pointed
to the current economic negotiations with Japan, which are
proceeding at a snail's pace.

While China will soon start to implement the early harvest
scheme of the ASEAN-China FTA, Japan and ASEAN will sign a
framework for comprehensive economic partnership -- not an FTA as
ASEAN had requested.

Japan thinks that the charter, which takes its inspiration
from the UN charter, will serve as the bedrock of long-term
ASEAN-Japanese relations. Tokyo realizes that after all these
years friendship with ASEAN, while cordial, close and correct,
lack the intimacy necessary for fuller cooperation. In the minds
of Japanese policymakers, the charter, which treats ASEAN as an
equal partner and contains many TAC components, could in a way
circumvent Japan's firm refusal to accede to the TAC.

Indeed, ASEAN-Japanese ties are at a crossroads despite
hundreds of elaborate and much-hyped commemorative events this
year. With China, and from this year onward India, fully engaging
with ASEAN, Japan is searching deep down -- this time outside its
pockets -- how it can adapt to the new environment.

Radical concessions from Japan -- such as wider market access
that moves far beyond the wishes of local constituencies -- could
save the day. But no ASEAN country expects Japan to do this
anytime soon.

Beyond economic benefits, it will also take a Japan that is
linked closely to the region to win the hearts and minds of
ASEAN. Beyond diplomatic pleasantries, Japanese leaders have yet
to demonstrate their deep understanding of the insights of ASEAN.

Latecomer India has done a better job. Since its "Look East"
policy of 1992, India has moved slowly but firmly in solidifying
relations with ASEAN. India's willingness to open its much-
guarded domestic market has been hailed by ASEAN. It will sign a
framework on comprehensive economic cooperation with the ASEAN
leaders to kick off their first summit meeting.

Prospects for ASEAN-Indian cooperation in the long haul look
promising. As ASEAN puts emphasis on the development of
information and communication technologies, India can spearhead
this effort. Furthermore, India, with its TAC accession in Bali,
together with China, will form the inner ring of ASEAN's external
relations.

The active involvement of big Asian powers has rejuvenated
ASEAN and enhanced its ability to face future challenges.