ASEAN faces dilemma over East Timor crisis

ASEAN faces dilemma over East Timor crisis

By Stephen Collinson

BANGKOK (AFP): East Timor's agony has left Indonesia's
Southeast Asian partners with a policy dilemma which could define
the future of their alliance, analysts say.

Should ASEAN heed growing calls by critics in some liberal
member states and from abroad and condemn Indonesia, for years
its dominant member?

Or should club members respect the code of non-interference in
each other's affairs?

The code has been seen as the glue holding together a ten-
nation mixture of autocracies, communist states and market
democracies.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members have so
far made no direct criticism of Indonesia despite mounting global
anger at its inability or unwillingness to stop the bloodshed in
East Timor.

Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan last Friday made ASEAN's
most explicit statement on the crisis at the APEC summit in
Auckland.

"As ASEAN we too stand ready to extend support to Indonesia
when and if it deems it appropriate," said Surin.

The East Timor situation, like controversy over member
Myanmar's human rights record, is part of the continuing struggle
for ASEAN's political soul, analysts say.

On one side are young democracies like Thailand and the
Philippines which are keen for more open political dialogue in
the alliance and for "flexible engagement" with each other.

On the other are members which for their own political reasons
are keen to keep democratization off the ASEAN agenda.

"This will be the test of whether ASEAN can really break with
the past," said Prof. Walden Bello, co-director of Bangkok-based
policy research institute Focus on the Global South.

"Indonesia is engaged in a blatant illegal as well as immoral
act in East Timor that even ASEAN countries should feel is
something very difficult to tolerate.

"If it can't do anything ... (ASEAN) will be a useless
organization."

"This is a make or break point."

Other observers disagree, saying such criticism reflects a
misunderstanding of the role of ASEAN's loose, trade-dominated
affiliation.

They point to the European Union's failure to halt ethnic
cleansing in the former Yugoslavia, despite common political and
economic structures and a pooling of sovereignty not available to
ASEAN.

"It is not fair to put pressure on ASEAN to be hash on this
issue," said Dr. Chaiwat Satha-Anad of Bangkok's Thammasat
University.

ASEAN should make no public criticism of Jakarta but should
intervene discreetly behind the scenes and could use its
political credit in Jakarta to liaise between the United Nations,
the West and the Indonesian government, he said.

"ASEAN will survive this crisis, it's rather a United Nations
affair," said one Bangkok-based diplomat.

"ASEAN has no mechanism for solving conflicts," he said,
stressing that the absence of such a structure meant the group
did not have to make difficult choices.

One scenario advanced by ASEAN's defenders is that members are
looking beyond the current crisis to long-term geopolitical
interests.

They say members are concerned that a hawkish stance could
endanger ties with Indonesia if it implodes or if the military
takes outright power.

Another theory is that ASEAN foreign ministers are reluctant
to embarrass long-serving Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas
for personal reasons.

The alliance may also find it difficult to make an about-turn
on East Timor because, unlike the United Nations, it never
condemned Indonesia's 1976 annexation of the former Portuguese
colony.

ASEAN's response to the East Timor test is being closely
watched not just abroad but in the capitals of several member
states.

In Myanmar, diplomats say the government is closely watching
to see whether Indonesia's perceived human rights violations are
criticized, setting a precedent in which its own conduct would
face sterner examination.

Bello said he feared that failure to take a stand could make
ASEAN appear useless and prove that the doctrine of flexible
engagement was dead.

"My worry is that ASEAN will not have the moral guts to do
this ... one of the sad consequences of this whole thing is that
ASEAN is going to head for the garbage dump," he said.

Window: The East Timor situation, like controversy over member
Myanmar's human rights record, is part of the continuing struggle
for ASEAN's political soul, analysts say.