ASEAN faces dilemma over East Timor crisis

By Stephen Collinson

BANGKOK (AFP): East Timor's agony has left Indonesia's Southeast Asian partners with a policy dilemma which could define the future of their alliance, analysts say.

Should ASEAN heed growing calls by critics in some liberal member states and from abroad and condemn Indonesia, for years its dominant member?

Or should club members respect the code of non-interference in each other's affairs?

The code has been seen as the glue holding together a ten- nation mixture of autocracies, communist states and market democracies.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members have so far made no direct criticism of Indonesia despite mounting global anger at its inability or unwillingness to stop the bloodshed in East Timor.

Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan last Friday made ASEAN's most explicit statement on the crisis at the APEC summit in Auckland.

"As ASEAN we too stand ready to extend support to Indonesia when and if it deems it appropriate," said Surin.

The East Timor situation, like controversy over member Myanmar's human rights record, is part of the continuing struggle for ASEAN's political soul, analysts say.

On one side are young democracies like Thailand and the Philippines which are keen for more open political dialogue in the alliance and for "flexible engagement" with each other.

On the other are members which for their own political reasons are keen to keep democratization off the ASEAN agenda.

"This will be the test of whether ASEAN can really break with the past," said Prof. Walden Bello, co-director of Bangkok-based policy research institute Focus on the Global South.

"Indonesia is engaged in a blatant illegal as well as immoral act in East Timor that even ASEAN countries should feel is something very difficult to tolerate.

"If it can't do anything ... (ASEAN) will be a useless organization."

"This is a make or break point."

Other observers disagree, saying such criticism reflects a misunderstanding of the role of ASEAN's loose, trade-dominated affiliation.

They point to the European Union's failure to halt ethnic cleansing in the former Yugoslavia, despite common political and economic structures and a pooling of sovereignty not available to ASEAN.

"It is not fair to put pressure on ASEAN to be hash on this issue," said Dr. Chaiwat Satha-Anad of Bangkok's Thammasat University.

ASEAN should make no public criticism of Jakarta but should intervene discreetly behind the scenes and could use its political credit in Jakarta to liaise between the United Nations, the West and the Indonesian government, he said.

"ASEAN will survive this crisis, it's rather a United Nations affair," said one Bangkok-based diplomat.

"ASEAN has no mechanism for solving conflicts," he said, stressing that the absence of such a structure meant the group did not have to make difficult choices.

One scenario advanced by ASEAN's defenders is that members are looking beyond the current crisis to long-term geopolitical interests.

They say members are concerned that a hawkish stance could endanger ties with Indonesia if it implodes or if the military takes outright power.

Another theory is that ASEAN foreign ministers are reluctant to embarrass long-serving Indonesian Foreign Minister Ali Alatas for personal reasons.

The alliance may also find it difficult to make an about-turn on East Timor because, unlike the United Nations, it never condemned Indonesia's 1976 annexation of the former Portuguese colony.

ASEAN's response to the East Timor test is being closely watched not just abroad but in the capitals of several member states.

In Myanmar, diplomats say the government is closely watching to see whether Indonesia's perceived human rights violations are criticized, setting a precedent in which its own conduct would face sterner examination.

Bello said he feared that failure to take a stand could make ASEAN appear useless and prove that the doctrine of flexible engagement was dead.

"My worry is that ASEAN will not have the moral guts to do this ... one of the sad consequences of this whole thing is that ASEAN is going to head for the garbage dump," he said.

Window: The East Timor situation, like controversy over member Myanmar's human rights record, is part of the continuing struggle for ASEAN's political soul, analysts say.