ASEAN considers Yangon's entry

ASEAN considers Yangon's entry

By Meidyatama Suryodiningrat

JAKARTA (JP): Foreign ministers of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) convene in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow
to weigh up one of the most momentous decisions in the
organization's history.

The special meeting will likely decide whether in its 30th
year the association will realize the dream of an ASEAN-10 which
includes Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.

For many the core issue is Myanmar.

The ruling Stability, Law and Order Restoration Council
(SLORC) has been a target of intense criticism for alleged human
rights abuses and suppression of the pro-democracy movement.

Despite the public condemnations and pleas to delay admission,
ASEAN remains oblivious and continues to pursue a policy of
"constructive engagement" with SLORC. For ASEAN, it is a mere
question of fulfilling requirements before it admits Myanmar.

United States Secretary of State Madeline Albright's comment
in front of a Senate committee last week reflected the mood of
international exasperation toward ASEAN's stance: "I have written
to various (ASEAN) leaders... We have tried very hard to get
ASEAN countries to follow in our footsteps but they don't seem to
be interested."

Despite Yangon's political malady, ASEAN and in particular
Indonesia, base their decision on allowing immediate membership
on pragmatical and strategic reasons of self-interest.

The first reason is of geostrategic nature.

It is no secret that ASEAN military circles are preoccupied
with the possibility of dealing against Chinese hegemony in the
region. Questions on the South China Sea, natural resources and
China's desire to build a blue water navy remain lingering
concerns.

While diplomatic ties between ASEAN and China are amiable,
regional suspicions remain high.

The admission of Myanmar in ASEAN is a direct move to pull
Myanmar away from China's sphere of influence.

Kent E. Calder in his book Asia's Deadly Triangle wrote of
China's discreet but steady influence on Myanmar. China, Calder
wrote, has provided military assistance and helped upgrade
Myanmar's navy.

Sandwiched between the Chinese province of Yunnan and the
Indian Ocean, Myanmar is a strategic passage to the south Asian
seaways. China has been active repairing roads and railways from
Yunnan southward to the Indian Ocean.

In 1992, satellites detected a new 50-meter antenna on
Myanmar's Coco islands, near the Andaman Islands north of
Indonesia's Sabang Island.

It is suspected that Yangon is allowing China to use it as a
listening post for the Malacca Straits which is just 1,000
kilometers away.

Head of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies'
department of international relations, Bantarto Bandoro,
acknowledges security is a major consideration for granting
membership.

"Even though it isn't stated in public, containment of China
is a crucial factor," he said. "If Myanmar is accepted this year
I believe this will be a primary reason."

The second reason is a combination of history and Indonesia's
own keenness.

It is well known that ASEAN's forefathers envisioned a
grouping encompassing all 10 southeast Asian states. What is
often forgotten is that Indonesia, as one of the primary
initiators of the group, actually invited Myanmar, then still
Burma, and Cambodia to join in 1967.

For various reasons, born out of Cold War politics of the
time, the two countries refused but they indicated they were not
adverse to this new grouping.

Thirty-years later Indonesia is again showing the same
keenness in inviting the two countries along with Laos, evident
in President Soeharto's visit to the three countries earlier this
year.

It would be an extraordinary accomplishment for Soeharto as
the only surviving statesman from the grouping's birth to preside
over an ASEAN which began as a humble five nation gathering in
1967 to a 10 member association in 1997 which commands genuine
international respect and attention.

While decisions in ASEAN are made by consensus, Indonesia as
the protagonist in the grouping carries a lot of weight in
swaying decisions.

Given that Soeharto made no hesitation in expressing his
support during his trip, the political will to include them this
year is already there.

Bantarto highlights Soeharto's visit as a key development in
the membership process. "If they are accepted this year it can be
seen partly as the success of Pak Harto's diplomacy," he said.

The third reason for immediate admission is economic. Soeharto
has publicly envisaged the economic potential of an ASEAN-10 with
a market of 500 million people, a market bigger than Europe or
North America.

Presently Indonesian investment to Myanmar is low with just
over US$210 million mostly in manufacturing and construction.

Indonesia only has five projects, far behind Singapore and
Malaysia who are involved in 50.

Nevertheless, the wheeling and dealing has begun.

The most recent Indonesian venture is by Citra Lamtoro Gung
Persada, a company owned by one of Soeharto's daughters, which
will lend assistance in the development of Myanmar's food and
fertilizer industry along with the construction of power plants
and roads.

PT Semen Cibinong will also have a 70 percent stake in a
US$210 million cement factory being built there. Once completed
in the year 2000, the factory is expected to capture a third of
the Myanmar market.

Another ASEAN member which has strong economic interests is
Thailand which has a 30-year gas supply project with Myanmar
through the Yadana project in the Andaman Sea.

From an administrative point of view, Myanmar is also
sufficiently ready to join ASEAN's economic mechanisms.

ASEAN officials have often said that Yangon should have no
problem integrating into the ASEAN Free Trade Area. In addition,
Myanmar is also a member of the World Trade Organization,
something Cambodia and Laos are not.

The fourth reason for admission is a symbolic one. The
momentum and significance of a united southeast Asia during
ASEAN's 30th anniversary celebrations should not be brushed aside
lightly.

But more than that, accepting Myanmar serves as a vehicle in
establishing ASEAN's independence. It is also a calculated move
to deflect criticism from the West. As Western criticism becomes
fiercer, ASEAN's resolve is sturdier.

"It is clearly hitting back at the West," Bantarto said, "in
the end they'll (the West) probably keep quite because they have
their own economic interest in the region and don't want to
damage it."

He said ASEAN has also remained consistent to its policy of
respecting the political pluralism of the region and hallowed
non-domestic interference.

Human rights and democracy has never been a consideration for
ASEAN membership and, to the ire of the pro-democracy movement
there, neither will it for Myanmar.

As Indonesian foreign minister Ali Alatas said: no
organization in the world has put such demands as a prerequisite
for membership, not even the United Nations, so why should ASEAN?