ASEAN considers Yangon's entry

By Meidyatama Suryodiningrat

JAKARTA (JP): Foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) convene in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow to weigh up one of the most momentous decisions in the organization's history.

The special meeting will likely decide whether in its 30th year the association will realize the dream of an ASEAN-10 which includes Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.

For many the core issue is Myanmar.

The ruling Stability, Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) has been a target of intense criticism for alleged human rights abuses and suppression of the pro-democracy movement.

Despite the public condemnations and pleas to delay admission, ASEAN remains oblivious and continues to pursue a policy of "constructive engagement" with SLORC. For ASEAN, it is a mere question of fulfilling requirements before it admits Myanmar.

United States Secretary of State Madeline Albright's comment in front of a Senate committee last week reflected the mood of international exasperation toward ASEAN's stance: "I have written to various (ASEAN) leaders... We have tried very hard to get ASEAN countries to follow in our footsteps but they don't seem to be interested."

Despite Yangon's political malady, ASEAN and in particular Indonesia, base their decision on allowing immediate membership on pragmatical and strategic reasons of self-interest.

The first reason is of geostrategic nature.

It is no secret that ASEAN military circles are preoccupied with the possibility of dealing against Chinese hegemony in the region. Questions on the South China Sea, natural resources and China's desire to build a blue water navy remain lingering concerns.

While diplomatic ties between ASEAN and China are amiable, regional suspicions remain high.

The admission of Myanmar in ASEAN is a direct move to pull Myanmar away from China's sphere of influence.

Kent E. Calder in his book Asia's Deadly Triangle wrote of China's discreet but steady influence on Myanmar. China, Calder wrote, has provided military assistance and helped upgrade Myanmar's navy.

Sandwiched between the Chinese province of Yunnan and the Indian Ocean, Myanmar is a strategic passage to the south Asian seaways. China has been active repairing roads and railways from Yunnan southward to the Indian Ocean.

In 1992, satellites detected a new 50-meter antenna on Myanmar's Coco islands, near the Andaman Islands north of Indonesia's Sabang Island.

It is suspected that Yangon is allowing China to use it as a listening post for the Malacca Straits which is just 1,000 kilometers away.

Head of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies' department of international relations, Bantarto Bandoro, acknowledges security is a major consideration for granting membership.

"Even though it isn't stated in public, containment of China is a crucial factor," he said. "If Myanmar is accepted this year I believe this will be a primary reason."

The second reason is a combination of history and Indonesia's own keenness.

It is well known that ASEAN's forefathers envisioned a grouping encompassing all 10 southeast Asian states. What is often forgotten is that Indonesia, as one of the primary initiators of the group, actually invited Myanmar, then still Burma, and Cambodia to join in 1967.

For various reasons, born out of Cold War politics of the time, the two countries refused but they indicated they were not adverse to this new grouping.

Thirty-years later Indonesia is again showing the same keenness in inviting the two countries along with Laos, evident in President Soeharto's visit to the three countries earlier this year.

It would be an extraordinary accomplishment for Soeharto as the only surviving statesman from the grouping's birth to preside over an ASEAN which began as a humble five nation gathering in 1967 to a 10 member association in 1997 which commands genuine international respect and attention.

While decisions in ASEAN are made by consensus, Indonesia as the protagonist in the grouping carries a lot of weight in swaying decisions.

Given that Soeharto made no hesitation in expressing his support during his trip, the political will to include them this year is already there.

Bantarto highlights Soeharto's visit as a key development in the membership process. "If they are accepted this year it can be seen partly as the success of Pak Harto's diplomacy," he said.

The third reason for immediate admission is economic. Soeharto has publicly envisaged the economic potential of an ASEAN-10 with a market of 500 million people, a market bigger than Europe or North America.

Presently Indonesian investment to Myanmar is low with just over US$210 million mostly in manufacturing and construction.

Indonesia only has five projects, far behind Singapore and Malaysia who are involved in 50.

Nevertheless, the wheeling and dealing has begun.

The most recent Indonesian venture is by Citra Lamtoro Gung Persada, a company owned by one of Soeharto's daughters, which will lend assistance in the development of Myanmar's food and fertilizer industry along with the construction of power plants and roads.

PT Semen Cibinong will also have a 70 percent stake in a US$210 million cement factory being built there. Once completed in the year 2000, the factory is expected to capture a third of the Myanmar market.

Another ASEAN member which has strong economic interests is Thailand which has a 30-year gas supply project with Myanmar through the Yadana project in the Andaman Sea.

From an administrative point of view, Myanmar is also sufficiently ready to join ASEAN's economic mechanisms.

ASEAN officials have often said that Yangon should have no problem integrating into the ASEAN Free Trade Area. In addition, Myanmar is also a member of the World Trade Organization, something Cambodia and Laos are not.

The fourth reason for admission is a symbolic one. The momentum and significance of a united southeast Asia during ASEAN's 30th anniversary celebrations should not be brushed aside lightly.

But more than that, accepting Myanmar serves as a vehicle in establishing ASEAN's independence. It is also a calculated move to deflect criticism from the West. As Western criticism becomes fiercer, ASEAN's resolve is sturdier.

"It is clearly hitting back at the West," Bantarto said, "in the end they'll (the West) probably keep quite because they have their own economic interest in the region and don't want to damage it."

He said ASEAN has also remained consistent to its policy of respecting the political pluralism of the region and hallowed non-domestic interference.

Human rights and democracy has never been a consideration for ASEAN membership and, to the ire of the pro-democracy movement there, neither will it for Myanmar.

As Indonesian foreign minister Ali Alatas said: no organization in the world has put such demands as a prerequisite for membership, not even the United Nations, so why should ASEAN?