'ASEAN 10' would counter Chinese might: Scholar

'ASEAN 10' would counter Chinese might: Scholar

JAKARTA (JP): An expansion in the membership of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from six to all 10
countries in the region would make the organization an effective
tool in countering any Chinese military threat, a noted
Singaporean analyst said.

Speaking yesterday, Bilveer Singh said an expanded ASEAN could
be an effective countermeasure to China's ascendancy.

"China is going to be a massive superpower," Singh warned
during a ceremony which launched his latest book, The Challenge
of Conventional Arms Proliferation in Southeast Asia, at the
Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

China has all of the ingredients to acquire a dominating
position -- geographic location, population, military capability
and a vast economic potential -- noted Singh.

A future expansion of the ASEAN membership to include all the
region's countries would make the organization a potent political
force in discouraging Chinese aggression, he said.

ASEAN was established in 1967 as a socio-economic organization
and now comprises Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore and Thailand (Vietnam is set to join later this year).

Singh yesterday referred to an "ASEAN 10" -- with the addition
of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar into its membership -- as something
already envisioned by ASEAN officials.

In his book, Singh argues that although it presently seems
inconceivable that China would meddle in ASEAN affairs, China is
still a major power which harbors hegemonistic ambitions.

He notes that the existence of "overseas Chinese problems"
within most ASEAN member countries is an indication that there is
an underlying fear of Beijing throughout the region.

In addition, fears are mounting over potential clashes over
territorial claims between China and three ASEAN states --
Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. Each of the three ASEAN
states has an overlapping claim with China over the Spratly
Islands in the South China Seas.

"Management of China to me is very, very important," Singh
said at CSIS yesterday. "Joining together is the only way for
small countries to manage big powers," he asserted.

In his book, Singh points out that although ASEAN is not a
military alliance, "many observers have noted that some forms of
military informality have been emerging."

In his presentation, Singh did not advocate a military
approach to China, but underlined the importance of bringing
China into the balance of power structure within the region.

"It is imperative to bring China within that structure," he
said.

He also recommends that ASEAN should "engage China positively"
through confidence building measures and other means of
cooperation.

A researcher on regional security affairs at CSIS, Kusnanto
Anggoro, agreed with Singh's analysis.

Kusnanto said a united ASEAN would "send a strong signal"
should Beijing have ill-intentions.

He explained that one way to alleviate the Chinese danger is
to involve China various cooperative efforts and dialogs such as
the ASEAN Regional Forum.

Such cooperative efforts would be particularly effective in
the field of economics since, at present, China is vigorously
developing its economy, he said.

Cooperation creates interdependence and reduces the likelihood
of adverse intent towards the region by China, he said.(mds)