'ASEAN 10' would counter Chinese might: Scholar

JAKARTA (JP): An expansion in the membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from six to all 10 countries in the region would make the organization an effective tool in countering any Chinese military threat, a noted Singaporean analyst said.

Speaking yesterday, Bilveer Singh said an expanded ASEAN could be an effective countermeasure to China's ascendancy.

"China is going to be a massive superpower," Singh warned during a ceremony which launched his latest book, The Challenge of Conventional Arms Proliferation in Southeast Asia, at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

China has all of the ingredients to acquire a dominating position -- geographic location, population, military capability and a vast economic potential -- noted Singh.

A future expansion of the ASEAN membership to include all the region's countries would make the organization a potent political force in discouraging Chinese aggression, he said.

ASEAN was established in 1967 as a socio-economic organization and now comprises Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand (Vietnam is set to join later this year).

Singh yesterday referred to an "ASEAN 10" -- with the addition of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar into its membership -- as something already envisioned by ASEAN officials.

In his book, Singh argues that although it presently seems inconceivable that China would meddle in ASEAN affairs, China is still a major power which harbors hegemonistic ambitions.

He notes that the existence of "overseas Chinese problems" within most ASEAN member countries is an indication that there is an underlying fear of Beijing throughout the region.

In addition, fears are mounting over potential clashes over territorial claims between China and three ASEAN states -- Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. Each of the three ASEAN states has an overlapping claim with China over the Spratly Islands in the South China Seas.

"Management of China to me is very, very important," Singh said at CSIS yesterday. "Joining together is the only way for small countries to manage big powers," he asserted.

In his book, Singh points out that although ASEAN is not a military alliance, "many observers have noted that some forms of military informality have been emerging."

In his presentation, Singh did not advocate a military approach to China, but underlined the importance of bringing China into the balance of power structure within the region.

"It is imperative to bring China within that structure," he said.

He also recommends that ASEAN should "engage China positively" through confidence building measures and other means of cooperation.

A researcher on regional security affairs at CSIS, Kusnanto Anggoro, agreed with Singh's analysis.

Kusnanto said a united ASEAN would "send a strong signal" should Beijing have ill-intentions.

He explained that one way to alleviate the Chinese danger is to involve China various cooperative efforts and dialogs such as the ASEAN Regional Forum.

Such cooperative efforts would be particularly effective in the field of economics since, at present, China is vigorously developing its economy, he said.

Cooperation creates interdependence and reduces the likelihood of adverse intent towards the region by China, he said.(mds)