Arrests to boost opposition but Mahathir 'still secure'

By Simon Martin

KUALA LUMPUR (AFP): Malaysia's clampdown on pro-Anwar activists is likely to swell support for the opposition but Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's grip on his ruling party is still strong, analysts said.

Police last week arrested seven supporters of jailed ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim to try to derail a protest Saturday marking "Black 14" -- the second anniversary of the sentencing of Mahathir's former heir apparent.

Amnesty International and local lawyers and rights groups strongly criticized the arrests under the Internal Security Act (ISA), which allows indefinite detention without trial. Mahathir was unrepentant.

Asked how Malaysia's image would be affected, he retorted: "The foreign media will bash at us. They have never said anything good about us even if we are very nice.

"They can go and fry their faces."

Mahathir, 75, has been in power since 1981. But his United Malays National Organization (UMNO) suffered a big erosion of support in November 1999 polls, over Anwar's treatment and other issues.

The charismatic Anwar was convicted of abuse of power and sodomy and jailed for a total of 15 years. He says Mahathir orchestrated a conspiracy to frame him to eliminate a political threat, a charge the premier denies.

Despite murmurings of dissent in recent months, diplomats and other analysts told AFP Mahathir faced no major threat within UMNO.

They questioned whether he really intended to step down before the next elections in 2004, as he vowed back in 1999.

"Leaders like Mahathir don't have a retirement plan," said one diplomat. "The reality is, he will stay as long as he can.

"His main problems are health and the economy rather than the party (UMNO), which is a materialistic party rather than an ideological one."

The diplomat described UMNO's operations as "like a food chain ... there is underlying resentment towards Mahathir but (members) don't express it publicly because they don't want to be cut out of the food chain."

Mahathir justified the ISA arrests as a police action and not a political clampdown.

He said police had evidence that activists planned to use explosives and weapons in violent protests to topple his government. The opposition has challenged authorities to provide such proof.

"There's always a proportion of gullible people who buy such arguments (on planned violent protests)," the diplomat said.

"Increasingly people are not -- they are frustrated and increasingly resentful and that's a major problem for Mahathir.

"The momentum of opposition is still there."

Another diplomat noted that despite police warnings, opposition supporters risked arrest by attending Saturday's gathering.

But he said Mahathir appeared unconcerned by the hostile response to the use of the ISA. "His main concern was to make sure there were no disturbances."

The diplomat said no UMNO elections were imminent. "There is no mechanism to push him out unless he wants to retire. There are no signs that he is looking to retire."

Mohammad Agus Yusoff, a political science lecturer at National University of Malaysia, criticized what he called UMNO's "coercive measures to silence the opposition.

"It must (instead) address its own weaknesses. Opposition parties have been more effective in convincing the people."

But Mohammad Agus said Mahathir's position in UMNO is not under threat.

"There is definite dissatisfaction but the top ranks who gain economic benefits want him to continue even after 2004.

"Lower ranks think he's no longer relevant ... but most UMNO members can't find anyone suitable to replace him as yet."

Mohammad Agus said Mahathir's current designated successor, Deputy Premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, faced potential rivals in the party.

"Pak Lah (nickname) does not practice patronage politics. It is hard for him to garner support."

Michael Yeoh, head of the Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute, said the arrests could increase support for the Keadilan opposition party led by Anwar's wife.

"They could get more sympathy votes. People in general may still have doubts about what the government is saying but the business community will support the government because they want stability."