Arguments from strength

That is not to say, however, that it wouldn't be worth saying.

The awful thought that the NAM Summit might have to proceed during an American invasion of Iraq guarantees that the impending forum will be more focused on a single point than any of its dozen predecessors. Should this worst-case scenario actually come to pass, heaven forfend, there is no question that NAM KL would be the pre-eminent pulpit for the 114 nations -- two-thirds of the world -- to be represented here at their highest levels.

Future historians will shake their heads at how pivotal this American war on terrorism was on the fate of nations. It has marked transitions of civilisational ideologies and global orders. The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was only the beginning of the end of the Cold War. This is the end, and NATO knows it. Held together since the demise of the Warsaw Pact by the unifying impulses of Europe rather than the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO's trans-Atlantic nexus now seems most evocative of the geological Mid-Atlantic Ridge -- strained, volcanic and pulling apart.

The U.S., Britain and Australia might wish to see this as a re-shaping of the historical Western Alliance, but that's only to be expected for the Pollyannas they must be in this belligerent undertaking. The truth is, it's struggling. The United Nations is performing heroically but tottering under the burdens of its mission to prevent war by all means. Inevitably, the world's other associations of nations will rise to the task of steadying a world spun wildly awry by unitary-superpower unilateralism.

The time is nigh for ASEAN, the African Union and the Commonwealth, for example, to stand up and be counted. Undoubtedly, the world will witness this in Kuala Lumpur next week at the NAM Summit, and again later this year at the OIC conference. This is the responsibility history seems to have thrust upon Malaysia and its leadership. The tectonic analogy still holds: A "crustal shift" has taken place, the center has not held, and what was for so long on the periphery is now at the center. Undoubtedly, the world leaders who will be speaking in Kuala Lumpur in several days' time will be fully aware of the unprecedented moment in history they command, and weigh their words accordingly -- New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

A war in Iraq

How many billions of dollars will a war in Iraq cost? Impossible to say. In a conflict, the expenses aren't all foreseeable beforehand, and moreover, postwar expenses can accumulate endlessly.

No one will be spared. Whether they participate or not, reticent allies like Germany and France will feel the consequences on their fragile economies. If the price of a barrel rises to US$40 or even $50 and stays there for several months, in the worst of cases, neither one will escape a recession.

The stormy debate swelling in the West about the cost of the war can partly be explained by what many countries ... view as the flimsiness of the motivations behind this particular conflict.

Who ever calculated the cost of the landing at Normandy?

-- Le Figaro, Paris

On Zimbabwe

The announcement by Australian Prime Minister John Howard yesterday that SA and Nigeria will allow Zimbabwe to be readmitted to the Commonwealth when Harare's one-year suspension expires next month, does not come as a surprise.

It has been abundantly clear over the past few days that Pretoria and Abuja are not in favor of the continued isolation of Zimbabwe.

On his State visit to SA at the weekend, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo continually spoke of the need for "constructive engagement" -- a dirty word during SA's own struggle for a democratic dispensation -- with Harare. He argued that he did not see how sanctions against Zimbabwe would help mitigate the crisis in that country, a view President Thabo Mbeki has also previously articulated.

To undo Zimbabwe's suspension from the Commonwealth, Mbeki and Obasanjo have apparently decided to cancel a meeting with Howard next month, a move that will in effect see Zimbabwe readmitted to the 54-nation group of former British colonies.

Howard is the chairman of a three nation panel that includes Mbeki and Obasanjo, which was appointed by a summit of Commonwealth leaders that decided to suspend Zimbabwe for a year.

In the absence of a detailed and reasonable explanation from Pretoria and Abuja, Mbeki and Obasanjo at least owe Zimbabweans and the rest of the world some answers on what positive developments they have observed in Harare over the past 12 months that have motivated them to think that the country's suspension from the Commonwealth should not be extended.

-- Business Day, Johannesburg, South Africa

Four Cuban coast guardsmen who defected

The U.S. government acted quickly and correctly by returning to Cuba a patrol boat used by four military officers to defect last week. But the boat's return does not end the saga surrounding the late-night drama in Key West.

The Cuban government has also demanded the return of the four coast guardsmen. And U.S. officials have not explained how four foreign armed military personnel arrived at a Florida tourism spot unnoticed, moored their boat and walked well into the city before surrendering to a local police officer.

Oh, and did anyone mention that all this happened just as the national terrorism alert status was being elevated from yellow to orange?

It is disconcerting that the men crossed the Florida Straits in precisely the kind of high-powered, high-speed watercraft that U.S. law enforcement agencies have been on the lookout for during decades of waging the war on drug trafficking.

Perhaps it's time for the region's congressional representatives to take another look at how federal money is prioritized, and demand more be spent on border security and less on TV Marti.

-- South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Fort Lauderdale

Stealing debris from shuttle Columbia

Despite urgent requests from NASA not to, souvenir hunters have been swiping pieces of the shuttle Columbia. About 100 pieces of identified debris are missing, and the FBI has been brought in.

The souvenir hunting is both unfortunate and ghoulish.

Retrieving as much of the shuttle as possible is vital to determine precisely what caused the fiery breakup and take measures to prevent a recurrence.

Maybe the souvenir hunters rationalize their theft by thinking that NASA won't miss one small piece, but no one knows how small or innocuous a key piece of evidence might be.

And NASA must rely on the public to help.

The debris field is roughly 380 miles by 230 miles, spanning at least Texas and Louisiana, far beyond the ability of the authorities to conduct a search unaided. And NASA is interested in any pieces that might have peeled off the shuttle early and fallen into New Mexico, Arizona or California, where any find would almost certainly be made by private citizens.

It's dismaying that some people are so thoughtless or selfish that they would willfully impede an investigation into a national tragedy. Souvenirs are reminders, but is any American likely to forget what happened last Saturday? We thought not.

-- The Albuquerque Tribune, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Rift between U.S. and Europe at NATO and UN

We stand before a confrontation not only on a war in Iraq, but on power in the world. The Bush administration's message these past few days has been vehement: The Security Council and NATO either obey and follow along, or these organizations will cease to be "relevant," that is to say, useful for the United States, which considers impertinent the blockage thrown up in the North Atlantic Council by what the Pentagon chief calls "old Europe." But even more impertinent for these allies are Rumsfeld's political manners when he compares Germany to Libya or Cuba. This is out of place among allies and friends.

-- El Pais, Madrid

Iraq and the United Nations

There is a lot that points toward a credible military threat being a condition for avoiding a war.

Not until the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1441 -- which threatens with 'serious consequences' if Iraq does not cooperate -- did the regime in Baghdad admit the UN weapons inspectors again.

However, there are serious shortcomings in the Iraqi observance of the UN demands.

On Friday chief UN inspector Hans Blix and the International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammed ElBaradei will report again to the UN Security Council. If it is confirmed that the Iraqi regime continues to mock the United Nations, there may be an early military campaign.

Such a campaign should be marked by agreement within both the United Nations and NATO. Otherwise, two important organs for international cooperation run the risk of being reduced to nothing more than toothless paper tigers. That will hardly deter malevolent regimes from developing weapons of mass destruction.

-- Sydsvenska Dagbladet, Malmoe, Sweden

Singapore's birth rate

Singapore had 40,800 births last year, the lowest number in 14 years, while the total fertility rate was 1.4, a chasm away from the 2.1 figure at which a population regenerates to stay constant. Demographers confronted with the decline can look at it in two ways.

One response is to console themselves that a period of economic uncertainty deflates numbers. Evolving lifestyle choices of career-minded and cash-strapped Singaporeans over two decades have also run parallel with developed-country profiles of slower births. Of the former, confirmation comes in the dips to 1.43 and 1.5 respectively during the 1986 and 1998 business slump, against the average of 1.7 for the period.

The implication in the current context is not bringing any cheer. Omnipresent terrorism worries and the aftermath of an Iraq war, which could spark a recession and job losses everywhere, are going to depress already low birth numbers for an indefinite period. The other scenario for planners to ponder is to concede that the clutch of monetary incentives and tax concessions granted over the past 15 years have not worked as well as intended. The gains have been marginal. There is even anecdotal evidence of mis-targeting, in that a lot of the money flowed to women who planned to have more babies, regardless.

-- The Straits Times, Singapore

The expulsion of journalists from Iraq

On Monday, 69 foreign journalists were expelled from Iraq, including the reporter from the Norwegian national broadcasting company NRK.

The reason for the expulsion was not dissatisfaction over what they wrote. The reason for expelling them was connected to the fact that Iraq insists that every journalist has to be escorted by a government representative.

Therefore, a maximum of 200 foreign journalists can be in the country at the same time. If new journalists come into Iraq, others have to leave.

Both the expulsion and the reason for it shows that Iraq understands even less the seriousness of its situation.

Iraq should realize that not only do weapons inspectors need more freedom of movement, but so should journalists, if the Iraqi authorities are going to have any credibility.

But men like Saddam seldom understand that.

-- Dagbladet, Oslo, Norway

The impact of bin Laden's message

Bin Laden's message came with the timing of a precision bomb and his voice, being bodiless and incomprehensible, appears even more repugnant. It proves what Bush, Powell, Rumsfeld and the CIA couldn't, that bin Laden -- if the voice was his, -- considers the Iraqi people as "brothers" of war against a common enemy, the U.S. "devil."

The faceless enemy's message came at three o' clock in the afternoon, Eastern time, the exact hour when schools close and parents pick up their children, listening to the radio news. There isn't a more delicate moment during the day, both from a psychological and a physical point of view, as people end work and start relaxing.

The images and thoughts evoked by this messages were the most powerful since the Sept. 11 attack, which now seems far away in time. He's the death apostle that Bush had promised to catch "dead or alive," but he's still well alive and hidden. He still sucks kids, soldiers, diplomats and inspectors into a vortex that turns faster and faster, clearly leading us where he wants to go, war. -- La Repubblica, Rome