Are Megawati's chances fading?

A new idea has been suggested to the Indonesian public, this time by Amien Rais. The National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman suggested forming a "center axis", with himself and (National Awakening Party founder) Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid as the motivating forces. It is meant to act as an alternative force in the contest between the two presidential candidates, Megawati Soekarnoputri and B.J. Habibie.

The question is why this sudden emergence of the "center axis", otherwise known as a new "Reform Faction"? Has Gus Dur begun to distance himself from Megawati? Or is this Reform Faction an answer to the earlier published idea of having an Islamic Faction? Or could it be meant as a correction of those earlier plans because of the awareness that, as far as is possible, religion should not be brought into formal politics?

Many answers are possible because there are many possibilities. It could be that Gus Dur has once again entered into an accord with Amien Rais because he is finding it difficult to talk to Megawati -- who, perceiving herself to be the winner (in the recent general election), feels no need to enter into mutually supportive arrangement. Or it could be that Gus Dur is finding it easier to talk to Amien Rais because of their shared sense of being among the losers.

Megawati's chances (of being elected president) will continue to fade unless her party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), takes immediate steps toward initiating an alliance. Her chances are as good as dead if the formation of this center axis can be taken to mean a negation of PKB's support for PDI Perjuangan.

As someone who is beginning to show an adeptness in politics, Amien Rais, meanwhile, is keeping his own chances alive by allying himself with Gus Dur. It's a pity he has done so too late. Had the Amien-Gus Dur duo been forged long before the general election, the results of the (June 7) ballot could have been different.

-- Media Indonesia, Jakarta