Arafat can stop mortar attacks, but can't control bombs in Israel

By Peter King

JERUSALEM (AFP): After ordering his forces to crack down on mortar attacks against Israelis, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has seen some success, but analysts and militants say that with no sign of a revival of peace talks he has no way of stopping bombings inside Israel.

Palestinian analysts said Arafat had been successful in stopping firing on Israeli targets from populated Palestinian areas, but only because such attacks were unpopular among his own people.

"It was easy for him and possible for him (to prevent the mortar attacks) because this is something the people can understand," said analyst Ghassan al-Khatib of the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre (JMCC).

"First of all they are completely ineffective and useless, and second they only attract (Israeli) retaliation against civilians," he said.

Palestinian officials have said Arafat ordered his forces last Wednesday to prevent the shootings and mortar fire which had triggered a wave of fierce Israeli onslaughts against the Gaza Strip, including the internationally-condemned temporary reoccupation of an area of Palestinian-ruled land.

Israeli Defense Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer told army radio the order proved that Arafat "controls the situation on the ground."

"It was enough for him to lift a finger to halt the mortar fire because he understood that it harms his image and his international standing to be associated with terrorist activities," Ben Eliezer said.

An unnamed senior Israeli security official was meanwhile quoted by the radio as saying Arafat had "given the impression to Islamic terrorist organizations ... that they can continue their attacks in Israeli territory."

But Khatib said that while Arafat's security forces have been able to prevent militant gunmen and mortar brigades from reaching areas where they can fire on Israelis, he is not in a position to launch a full scale crackdown, with arrests, that would reduce their ability to send bombs into Israel.

With public support growing for attacks like the suicide bombing claimed by the militant group Hamas that killed a 53-year-old Israeli man in Kfar Saba in Israel at the weekend, Arafat has no control over such acts, he said.

Before the uprising broke out seven months ago, only a quarter of Palestinians "were able to understand or justify" attacks on civilians in Israel, Khatib said, quoting figures from polls his institute carried out, but that has since swollen to more than two thirds.

"Politically speaking it's very dangerous from Arafat's point of view to be in a vacuum with no peace agreement and no confrontation," he said.

"Since there is no agreement, the Palestinians cannot allow the situation to be completely calm because that is equal to accepting de facto the occupation," he said.

Arafat has been pressing for peace talks with Israel to resume, but Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has said there will be no negotiations before the violence is stopped by the Palestinians.

But for the Palestinians of all factions, it is Israel that is responsible for the violence, with 80 percent of the intifada's 488 victims being Palestinian.

Hamas political official Ismail Abu Shanab told AFP that if Israel "stops attacking our children," the fundamentalist Islamist group would also respect the rule of not attacking civilians.

"We in Hamas are against attacking innocent civilians, whether they are Palestinians or Israelis. We do love peace, but when we find Israeli soldiers attacking our kids, we need to tell them that if you are causing pain to our children we will cause pain to your children," Abu Shanab said.

The Hamas official also suggested that if Arafat succeeded in bringing the Palestinian people a convincing peace deal with Israel, his movement might abandon its violent opposition to peace with the Jewishs state.

"If he brings something in his hands to his people, telling them, 'Through negotiations I got these of your rights,' maybe this could be convincing for the people, even Hamas," Abu Shanab said.

"But we know that up till this moment, neither Sharon nor (Foreign Minister Shimon) Peres are offering any of the Palestinian rights on the table," he said.