Arab summit looks set for modest achievements

By Nadim Ladki

AMMAN (Reuters): Arab leaders face thorny issues at next week's Amman summit but their achievements are likely to be modest, diplomats and analysts say.

Compromise on Iraq and a wait-and-see policy on peacemaking with Israel is all they expect from the first Arab summit in more than a decade, which will be held in the Jordanian capital on March 27-28.

On Iraq, the summit is expected to call for an end to nearly 11 years of economic sanctions, but to stop short of addressing the more delicate issue of the military embargo.

The Arab leaders will also discuss "the state of affairs" between Iraq and Kuwait, but there are no prospects of reconciliation yet, the diplomats and analysts said.

The summit might form a committee to follow up efforts for reconciliation.

The issue of peace with Israel should prove more straightforward, with the summit expounding a common-denominator position acceptable to all participants.

That would reiterate the Arab commitment to the peace process, call for an end to the Israeli blockade of Palestinian towns and find ways to fulfill a pledge of US$1 billion financial support to Palestinians.

"This summit must succeed. If it fails it will be the last regular Arab summit," Saleh al-Qallab, a former Jordanian information minister, told Reuters.

But his formula for success was far from ambitious.

"We have to expect modest steps that could be agreed upon regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Iraqi issue," he said.

Analysts say Arab governments are still under pressure from their people to take tough measures against Israel and lift the sanctions on Iraq.

Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 and the consequent liberation of the oil-rich country by a U.S.-led coalition in 1991 caused havoc in inter-Arab relations.

Only one Arab summit was held in the decade that followed the war. It took place in Cairo in 1996 and Iraq was not invited.

The Arab leaders met again in Cairo last October, a few weeks after the outbreak of the latest Palestinian Intifada or uprising against Israeli occupation.

This time Iraq attended, represented by Izzat Ibrahim, vice- chairman of the Revolutionary Command Council. It will also attend the Amman summit, probably again represented by Ibrahim.

The summit agenda will not be finalized until Arab foreign ministers meet in Amman on March 24-25, but Western diplomats and Middle East analysts agree that taking a stand on Iraq looks like being the most contentious issue the summit will face.

"The leaders will have their work cut out on Iraq. They have to come up with a middle point between demands by Iraq and its sympathizers for a total lift of sanctions, and demands by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to keep Saddam checked," a diplomat said.

Qallab expected the summit to reach a compromise that would not anger the United States, which is looking at a new sanctions regime to ease the burden for the Iraqi people.

In a possible attempt to downgrade the significance of summit deliberations on Iraq, Saudi Arabia said on Thursday that Defense Minister Prince Sultan would represent it. It said the gathering would focus on ways to support the Palestinians.

It did not say why Crown Prince Abdullah, who has attended previous Arab and Islamic meetings, would not go to the summit.

The United States said this week it had made progress in talks with Arab states on revised sanctions, despite a flood of Arab statements in favor of lifting the embargo.

But Washington was unlikely to have written proposals ready in time for the summit, U.S. officials said.

It wants restrictions on civilian goods eased while tightening restrictions on military equipment.

Analysts expected the summit to approve an earlier decision to send the Palestinians $40 million a month.

Concern about alleged corruption in the Palestinian Authority has delayed efforts to pay out the $1 billion pledge made the Cairo summit last year.

Analysts expected the summit to reiterate its commitment to peace with Israel as a strategic option, rather than adopting a Syrian proposal to cut ties with Israel and revive an economic boycott.

The summit would insist that Israel resumes peace talks with the Palestinians at the point they broke off under the previous Israeli government and on the need for total Israeli withdrawal from occupied Syrian and Lebanese territories.

"The summit will agree to give a chance to separate talks next month between the leaders of Jordan and Egypt and U.S. President George W. Bush on how to revive the peace and force Israel to lift its blockade against Palestinians," an analyst said.

However, Qallab said Arab leaders would eventually have to act if Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon maintained his hard line on refusing to negotiate before Palestinian violence ended.