Approach Myanmar softly, softly

The Daily Yomiuri, Asia News Network, Tokyo

The abrupt ouster of Myanmar Prime Minister Gen. Khin Nyunt from the Cabinet has profoundly shaken the country's political situation.

Khin Nyunt, a relative moderate, shared power with Senior Gen. Than Shwe, supreme leader of the junta, and Vice Senior General Maung Aye, the number two in the junta. Prior to Tuesday's surprise announcement, there had been no indication that Khin Nyunt would be forced out of power. In fact, he was on a tour of inspection in provincial districts on the day of his removal.

The Myanmar government announced his departure from the Cabinet by saying that he was "permitted to retire for health reasons." But it is believed that Khin Nyunt was ousted as a result of internal strife within the junta over rights and interests related to political power and a conflict of opinions about what kind of attitude the junta should adopt toward the pro-democracy movement in their country.

The Thai government has said that Khin Nyunt was "placed under house arrest on corruption charges." His successor is Lt. Gen. Soe Win, a hard-liner who has moved from his fourth-highest post of first secretary of the junta, which is officially called the State Peace and Development Council.

Speculation is growing that Khin Nyunt's ouster will make it further difficult for Nobel Peace Prize laureate and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi to be freed from house arrest. No one wants Khin Nyunt's downfall to destabilize his nation and its neighbors.

While in office, Khin Nyunt put together a "road map to democracy" while also convening a national assembly to draft a constitution. Critics dismissed his approach as designed to fend off pressure from the United States and European nations for Myanmar to make itself more democratic. But Southeast Asian governments praised his attitude as a positive step toward the transfer of power to civilian control.

The ruling junta should, at least, keep the democratic process in place. If it chose to suspend the national assembly, the junta could arouse dissatisfaction among the Myanmar public. Doing so would also undermine Myanmar's relations with other countries in the region.

Myanmar enjoys amicable relations with Japan. The Japanese government has extended grants-in-aid to Myanmar this year, too, with the aim of helping protect that nation's environment. This is in stark contrast to diplomatic pressure exerted on Myanmar by the United States and European countries that have strengthened economic sanctions against that nation.

Japan also played an important role in getting Myanmar to join the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) as a new member during the ASEM conference this month. The government worked to ensure that European members of the meeting would drop their earlier objections to Myanmar's entry.

This indicates the basic attitude adopted toward Myanmar by the Japanese government, which wants to see that country establish cooperative relations with the rest of the world and gradually transform itself into a democracy through economic assistance and policy advice.

Khin Nyunt's ouster may provide the United States and European nations with cause to apply greater pressure against Myanmar. But they should realize that any attempt to further isolate Myanmar could encourage the country to seek even closer ties with China.

Myanmar is a nation of strategic importance for China as it seeks to exert greater influence in the Indian Ocean. Myanmar's isolation in the international community and China's growing influence could destabilize the region. With this in mind, Japan should stick to its own diplomatic policy toward Myanmar.