Another wobble in the U.S.-China tango

Frank Ching, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

Chinese children play with a toy called a bu dao weng, or "old man who cannot be toppled" -- a painted egg-shaped object weighted on one end that, no matter how you push it, always ends up righting itself after a certain amount of wobbling, quite unlike Humpty Dumpty which, of course, was smashed to smithereens and could not be put back together again.

The bu dao weng image is conjured by the current state of U.S.-China relations, which is often seemingly on the verge of a rupture but which somehow is always rescued in the nick of time by some other development.

Thus, in 2001, when the administration of George W. Bush first assumed office, it identified China as the future enemy, or, in the words of President Bush, as a "strategic competitor".

Things went from bad to worse after a Chinese jet fighter collided with an American reconnaissance plane in April. However, six months later, the terrorist attack on the United States caused Washington to focus on its existing enemy, terrorism, and China was relegated to the back burner.

At the same time, Washington recognized China's value as a partner in the war on terrorism.

Similarly, two weeks ago, the Pentagon released a report on Chinese military power which suggested that Beijing may well pose a threat to the United States.

At the same time, voices were raised in Congress that the bid by the Chinese state-run China National Offshore Oil Corporation for U.S. oil company Unocal was a potential threat to American energy security.

The Chinese accused Washington of a "China threat" paranoia and the bilateral relationship turned distinctly chilly.

But this week, a new warmth has returned to the relationship. For one thing, the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear crisis resumed in Beijing after a one-year hiatus, and all signs are that the negotiations went better than at any of the three previous sessions.

Moreover, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick arrived in Beijing on Sunday for the first U.S.-China strategic dialog. This dialog, initiated by China, is meant to provide a regular channel for high-level exchanges of views on a range of issues involving security as well as political and economic affairs.

Such talks could remove misunderstandings and head off problems before they develop into major issues.

The holding of the dialog was agreed upon by Chinese President Hu Jintao and Bush when the two men met during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Chile last year. The dialog is expected to be held twice a year.

But even as the relationship seems to be riding out the squalls created by the Pentagon report, it is being subjected to new stresses. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a Bill, the Foreign Relations Authorization Act, which calls on the State Department to "facilitate high-level meetings" between senior Taiwan officials, such as the president, vice-president, foreign minister and defense minister, with their American counterparts.

China protested strongly, asserting that the Bill violates previous Sino-American agreements and will poison Washington- Beijing ties.

It is unlikely that the Bill will become law, since the Senate has yet to pass a counterpart version. Moreover, there is little likelihood that Bush will sign such a measure into law, knowing the storms that are likely to be whipped up as it would, in effect, revive official relations between Taiwan and the U.S., which were severed in 1979 when Washington established diplomatic ties with Beijing.

Taiwan has historically wielded great influence in the U.S. Congress, in part because it is willing to spend vast sums for lobbying in Washington. China has always shied away from such activities. But the time may well have come for Beijing, too, to engage lobbyists and public relations firms to plead its cause.

Lobbying alone will not bring long-term stability to the U.S.- China relationship. But it may well help China to avoid surprises, such as that in 1995 when Taiwan, through skillful lobbying, got the Congress to vote 493 to 1 for then President Lee Teng-hui to be given a visa to the United States.

The strategic dialog is meant to inject new significance into the Sino-American relationship.

But even so there is a crying need for a major Chinese effort to win friends in Congress. No doubt, it will be difficult to begin with but, in the long run, it will be well worth the effort.

The writer is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator.