Another terrorist bomb attack on Indonesia

The Straits Times Asia News Network Singapore

Thursday's bomb blast outside the Australian embassy in Jakarta raises important questions about the timing, intention and consequences. It occurred two days before the third anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the United States, but it also came days before Indonesia's Sept. 20 presidential election run-off and a month before elections in Australia.

Whether it was intended to be a symbolic reminder of Sept. 11 or meant to influence political outcomes can only be guessed at. The implications for Australia are less clear than they are for Indonesia. True, the Australian government is adamant on keeping troops in Iraq so long as they are needed, while the country's Labor opposition has said it would bring them home by Christmas if elected.

This naturally would encourage speculation that the Jakarta blast is intended to influence opinion in favor of a withdrawal -- just as the deadly train bombings in Spain led to a change of government in favor of the Socialists, who had promised a pullout of troops from Iraq. Both the John Howard government and the opposition are firm they would not bow to terrorists. Pro forma as that may seem, it is really unclear how the Jakarta outrage will make a difference in the Australian polls. More important is what happens in Indonesia itself.

The Indonesian police have blamed the blast on Jamaah Islamiyah (JI), the al-Qaeda-linked militants who were responsible for the 2002 Bali nightclub bombings and an attack last year on the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta. An Indonesian court has rejected an attempt by alleged JI leader Abu Bakar Bashir to be freed from jail, clearing the way for his trial under tough anti-terror laws. If the bombing was in part response to that decision, it was hardly necessary because no one doubts the presence and reach of that organization.

In a report published in August last year after the arrest of top JI operative Hambali, the International Crisis Group (ICG), which has carried out extensive research on JI, pointed out that the terrorist network remained dangerous because it was spread across a huge archipelago.

According to an analyst, only over 200 JI members are behind bars in the region, out of an estimated 3,000. Indonesia remains at the heart of JI's final goal -- to unite Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and the southern Philippines into an Islamic state -- and whatever terrorists can do to destabilize the archipelagic nation has an effect on security in the wider region.

To say this is not to devalue the firm stand against terror which the government of the world's largest Muslim country has taken. The ICG report commended the Indonesian police and its international counterparts for making major progress in hunting down JI members.

Another report by the group, released in February this year, noted that it was important to keep the threat of terrorism in perspective. "Indonesia is not about to be overrun with jihadists," it said, adding that jihadists were "the radical fringe of a radical fringe".

However, the fringe's capacity to cause damage to the center is a perpetual concern. Thursday's attack not only caused Indonesian shares and the rupiah to tumble -- although they steadied later -- but will also reinforce perceptions of the country as being terror-prone, even as it consolidates its economic recovery from the Asian financial crisis.

Admittedly, it is not possible to predict and stop every terrorist attack, but Jakarta needs to continue raising intelligence levels and enforcement action so that attacks can be prevented.