Another terrorist bomb attack on Indonesia

Another terrorist bomb attack on Indonesia

The Straits Times
Asia News Network
Singapore

Thursday's bomb blast outside the Australian embassy in
Jakarta raises important questions about the timing, intention
and consequences. It occurred two days before the third
anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the United States, but it
also came days before Indonesia's Sept. 20 presidential election
run-off and a month before elections in Australia.

Whether it was intended to be a symbolic reminder of Sept. 11
or meant to influence political outcomes can only be guessed at.
The implications for Australia are less clear than they are for
Indonesia. True, the Australian government is adamant on keeping
troops in Iraq so long as they are needed, while the country's
Labor opposition has said it would bring them home by Christmas
if elected.

This naturally would encourage speculation that the Jakarta
blast is intended to influence opinion in favor of a withdrawal
-- just as the deadly train bombings in Spain led to a change of
government in favor of the Socialists, who had promised a pullout
of troops from Iraq. Both the John Howard government and the
opposition are firm they would not bow to terrorists. Pro forma
as that may seem, it is really unclear how the Jakarta outrage
will make a difference in the Australian polls. More important is
what happens in Indonesia itself.

The Indonesian police have blamed the blast on Jamaah
Islamiyah (JI), the al-Qaeda-linked militants who were
responsible for the 2002 Bali nightclub bombings and an attack
last year on the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta. An Indonesian court
has rejected an attempt by alleged JI leader Abu Bakar Bashir to
be freed from jail, clearing the way for his trial under tough
anti-terror laws. If the bombing was in part response to that
decision, it was hardly necessary because no one doubts the
presence and reach of that organization.

In a report published in August last year after the arrest of
top JI operative Hambali, the International Crisis Group (ICG),
which has carried out extensive research on JI, pointed out that
the terrorist network remained dangerous because it was spread
across a huge archipelago.

According to an analyst, only over 200 JI members are behind
bars in the region, out of an estimated 3,000. Indonesia remains
at the heart of JI's final goal -- to unite Indonesia, Brunei,
Malaysia, Singapore and the southern Philippines into an Islamic
state -- and whatever terrorists can do to destabilize the
archipelagic nation has an effect on security in the wider
region.

To say this is not to devalue the firm stand against terror
which the government of the world's largest Muslim country has
taken. The ICG report commended the Indonesian police and its
international counterparts for making major progress in hunting
down JI members.

Another report by the group, released in February this year,
noted that it was important to keep the threat of terrorism in
perspective. "Indonesia is not about to be overrun with
jihadists," it said, adding that jihadists were "the radical
fringe of a radical fringe".

However, the fringe's capacity to cause damage to the center
is a perpetual concern. Thursday's attack not only caused
Indonesian shares and the rupiah to tumble -- although they
steadied later -- but will also reinforce perceptions of the
country as being terror-prone, even as it consolidates its
economic recovery from the Asian financial crisis.

Admittedly, it is not possible to predict and stop every
terrorist attack, but Jakarta needs to continue raising
intelligence levels and enforcement action so that attacks can be
prevented.