Analysts warn of likely splinters in new Cabinet

SEMARANG (JP): Political observers from across the country commended the new Cabinet lineup as a compromise which included all political and societal elements, but warned that such an arrangement was susceptible to political fractures.

Political commentator Andi Malarangeng said here that the new Cabinet was fitting but vulnerable to splintering because it accommodated many political groupings. He noted the importance of the leadership of President Abdurrahman Wahid, better known as Gus Dur, and Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

"But I believe that Gus Dur and Megawati will be able to handle the large Cabinet properly. The new ministers will likely cooperate to support Gus Dur's leadership in an effort to establish a legitimate government which is internationally and domestically trusted," Malarangeng said after attending a seminar at the state-owned Institute of Religious Teaching (IAIN) Walisongo.

From Surabaya, East Java, Aribowo, a political expert of Airlangga University, said the Cabinet would show unity and hold legitimacy in the short term, but was fragile and would be vulnerable to friction in the long run.

"The Cabinet, which is very heterogeneous, will be like a time bomb if the President is not able to synchronize the members."

He regretted the scaling down of the position of State Secretary from a ministry to an office. He believed the post was important for the President because of his physical limitations, while Megawati was still an unknown quantity as a national leader.

"I am worried the President will depend too much on the people around him. How would his legal accountability be taken then?"

He said the Cabinet would probably be able to deal with the economic crisis, but it could not effectively build a climate of democracy.

"One of the reasons is that the President has put the critical issues like rights violations in troubled provinces on Megawati's shoulders, while Megawati's leadership is only acknowledged at the political party level."

He warned that opposition parties were badly needed or a new authoritarian regime would develop.

Economist Faisal Basri, who is also secretary-general of the National Mandate Party (PAN), said in Bandung, West Java, on Wednesday that the new Cabinet gave no room for opposition.

He lamented that the President's selection of ministers was based on guarantees from Golkar Party chairman Akbar Tandjung, PAN chairman Amien Rais and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri and then Indonesian Military chief Gen. Wiranto on the nominations.

"That's the political compromise. The people were made available first, and the new posts then followed for them," he told reporters.

He believed the system also made it difficult for the Cabinet team's members to cooperate. The ministers in the economic sector came from different backgrounds, he added. "How could they make a good team if they have different schools of thought? Based on this, Gus Dur's leadership is absolutely required in the Cabinet."

Diponegoro University's Novel Ali said the new Cabinet was a model of Indonesian democracy in reflecting political compromise.

"Because it is not easy for the President to remove the old faces, the result is that the Cabinet cannot be cleared of New Order figures. But there is nothing to worry about as those picked as ministers by Gus Dur have proven their integrity, honesty and political cleanliness during the New Order era."

Novel said the President set up the new Cabinet according to his own belief that democracy was based on compromise, and he did not consider politics to be a black-and-white issue.

In Yogyakarta, sociologist Lambang Triyono said the new Cabinet was so accommodative that it failed to offer substantial innovations.

"What Indonesia really needs is breakthroughs," he said, adding that the grand accommodation in the Cabinet was the reflection of the President's leniency and tolerance toward all political groups.

Pointing to Yahya Muhaimin and Bambang Sudibyo, the new ministers of national education and finance respectively, Lambang said: "Despite the fact that they are all lecturers at Gadjah Mada University, their appointment was as much because of accommodative policies as it was due to the fact that the two are from Muhammadiyah elements."

The appointment of Hasballah M. Saad as the state minister of human rights affairs was merely because he was from troubled Aceh, while Yusuf Kalla was appointed minister of industry and trade because he hails from Makassar, Lambang argued.

In Makassar, South Sulawesi, mass communications expert A. Muis of Hasanuddin University expressed concern over the elimination of the information ministry.

"I think it was a hasty decision in the Gus Dur-Megawati Cabinet." He underlined that an outlet for information was crucial to the country, especially with the current situation in which many interests were involved.

Muis recommended that the print media, communications and other related matters should be handled by both the State Secretary and Ministry of Industry, while broadcasting should be taken over by a communications ministry.

"The press must be handled by two ministries as the aspect of business in the scope of the press industry is very important," Muis said, adding that the Cabinet lineup was very accommodative.

He said the public should not worry about several military members of the Cabinet.

"The military men are those who agree and support reforms. I believe that a leader like Agum Gumelar is an example of a flexible and moderate person."

Muis also praised Attorney General Marzuki Darusman.

"Actually Baharuddin Lopa (a member of the National Commission on Human Rights from South Sulawesi) is more deserving ... But both are fine with me. They are leaders with integrity." He hoped that several national scandals would be resolved by Marzuki.

Bandung political observer Rusadi Kartaprawira said that Abdurrahman's Cabinet was hastily formed and lacked professionals.

The President was short on time and encountered constraints in selecting the ministers, Rusadi said.

"Many ministers were not contacted before the announcement. And he had to accommodate the input or proposals from Akbar Tandjung, Wiranto, Amien Rais, as well as Megawati," the lecturer from Padjadjaran University said.

"It is a reconciliation Cabinet which lacks the combination of professionals, analysts and career government officials like former director generals.

"It will be very difficult for the ministers to tune into the new Cabinet."

He faulted the inevitable jockeying for power in the current political system.

"A two-party political system would be preferable in the future, as the current multiparty system results in political tradeoffs with ministers who know nothing about their new job."

People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) Speaker Amien Rais welcomed the Cabinet formation which was geared toward national reconciliation.

"Just look, everyone is represented from Aceh to Irian Jaya, from Sumatra to East Nusa Tenggara, from Java to Sulawesi," he said in Surakarta, Central Java, on Wednesday.

"It's a good composition. I give it a grade of 7.5 on its level of technocrats and an eight on the national reconciliation aspect." (har/nur/44/27/43/edt/sur)