Analysts see little hope for Amien's bid

Tiarma Siboro and M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

While members of the alliance of parties initiated by presidential hopeful Amien Rais are only at the stage of feeling out each other's political stances, analysts say the coalition could increasing their bargaining position with the winners of the legislative election.

It is, however, unlikely that Amien will be able to boost his chances for the presidency through the "axis", they said, given that the July 5 presidential election will be the country's first ever direct election in which people will vote for candidates, not parties.

Moreover, Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN) did not enjoy a particularly strong showing in the legislative election, currently standing in seventh place with 6.5 percent of the vote.

In the "Save the Nation Axis", PAN is teaming up with parties that received more votes in the elections, such as the National Awakening Party (PKB) with over 12 percent of the vote, and those that received fewer votes, including the Pioneers' Party which has earned the fewest votes in the general election with just 0.65 percent of the over 88 million votes already counted.

Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) are still the two top vote getters with 20.96 percent and 19.72 percent of the vote respectively, with almost 60 percent of the ballots counted nationwide.

Analyst Syamsudin Harris of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) said the formation of the axis was due in part to a lack of confidence among the leaders of the political parties, including Amien, to run solo in the first round of the direct presidential election on July 5.

A runoff will take place in September if none of the presidential candidates receives a clear majority of the vote.

"I don't really understand his (Amien's) move, but he might believe that his only chance (to become president) is to convince the public about his potential running mate, instead of coming up with an alternative political agenda. He could just as well go it alone," he told The Jakarta Post.

With over 5.7 million or 5 percent of the popular vote and having gained well over the required 3 percent of seats in the 550-seat House of Representatives, PAN is eligible to nominate a presidential candidate.

Syamsudin also viewed the grouping as an attempt by the political parties leader to block moves by their opponents and increase their bargaining position in the horse-trading that will take place in the House.

He was quick to add that Amien was also playing a losing game because his potential running mates were leaders of political parties that won more votes than PAN.

Analyst Bachtiar Effendy said if Amien's axis teamed up with Golkar, and also the upstart political vehicle of former security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the Democratic Party, it "will serve as an indispensable political machinery to mobilize support for Amien and his running mate in the direct presidential election". He added that a likely pairing would be Amien and Golkar Party leader Akbar Tandjung.

However, should Amien lose his presidential bid, Bachtiar said he and his coalition should shun the horse trading in the House and begin building a credible opposition.

Amien dismissed on Wednesday the possibility of having either Susilo or Akbar as his running mate, noting that both men had presidential ambitions of their own. In addition, their parties had much stronger showings in the elections than PAN, making it unlikely they would accept an offer to serve as Amien's vice president.