Analysts see little hope for Amien's bid

Analysts see little hope for Amien's bid

Tiarma Siboro and M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

While members of the alliance of parties initiated by
presidential hopeful Amien Rais are only at the stage of feeling
out each other's political stances, analysts say the coalition
could increasing their bargaining position with the winners of
the legislative election.

It is, however, unlikely that Amien will be able to boost his
chances for the presidency through the "axis", they said, given
that the July 5 presidential election will be the country's first
ever direct election in which people will vote for candidates,
not parties.

Moreover, Amien's National Mandate Party (PAN) did not enjoy a
particularly strong showing in the legislative election,
currently standing in seventh place with 6.5 percent of the vote.

In the "Save the Nation Axis", PAN is teaming up with parties
that received more votes in the elections, such as the National
Awakening Party (PKB) with over 12 percent of the vote, and those
that received fewer votes, including the Pioneers' Party which
has earned the fewest votes in the general election with just
0.65 percent of the over 88 million votes already counted.

Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)
are still the two top vote getters with 20.96 percent and 19.72
percent of the vote respectively, with almost 60 percent of the
ballots counted nationwide.

Analyst Syamsudin Harris of the Indonesian Institute of
Sciences (LIPI) said the formation of the axis was due in part to
a lack of confidence among the leaders of the political parties,
including Amien, to run solo in the first round of the direct
presidential election on July 5.

A runoff will take place in September if none of the
presidential candidates receives a clear majority of the vote.

"I don't really understand his (Amien's) move, but he might
believe that his only chance (to become president) is to convince
the public about his potential running mate, instead of coming up
with an alternative political agenda. He could just as well go it
alone," he told The Jakarta Post.

With over 5.7 million or 5 percent of the popular vote and
having gained well over the required 3 percent of seats in the
550-seat House of Representatives, PAN is eligible to nominate a
presidential candidate.

Syamsudin also viewed the grouping as an attempt by the
political parties leader to block moves by their opponents and
increase their bargaining position in the horse-trading that will
take place in the House.

He was quick to add that Amien was also playing a losing game
because his potential running mates were leaders of political
parties that won more votes than PAN.

Analyst Bachtiar Effendy said if Amien's axis teamed up with
Golkar, and also the upstart political vehicle of former security
minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the Democratic Party, it "will
serve as an indispensable political machinery to mobilize support
for Amien and his running mate in the direct presidential
election". He added that a likely pairing would be Amien and
Golkar Party leader Akbar Tandjung.

However, should Amien lose his presidential bid, Bachtiar said
he and his coalition should shun the horse trading in the House
and begin building a credible opposition.

Amien dismissed on Wednesday the possibility of having either
Susilo or Akbar as his running mate, noting that both men had
presidential ambitions of their own. In addition, their parties
had much stronger showings in the elections than PAN, making it
unlikely they would accept an offer to serve as Amien's vice
president.