Analysts doubt polling on next president

Analysts doubt polling on next president

JAKARTA (JP): Two senior military analysts welcomed yesterday
the idea of a national poll on President Soeharto's
acceptability, but expressed doubts that it could be carried out
successfully.

The deputy governor of the National Resilience Institute,
Juwono Sudarsono, and a former governor of the institute,
Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, both said they thought the national
poll proposal was a good one in principle.

"I have no argument against the poll idea," Juwono told
reporters after addressing a seminar at the Centre for Strategic
and International Studies.

But Juwono said it would be very difficult to find respondents
who would give their honest opinion on the issue of Indonesia's
leadership succession.

"There will always be a statistical bias in their answers," he
said.

Juwono said it was not the cultural tradition of most
Indonesians to be straightforward when expressing their opinion.

The national poll suggestion was made last Friday by political
observer Amien Rais, who said a poll could help to find out
whether the majority of Indonesians really want to reelect
Soeharto.

Amien said he did not believe that Golkar's decision to
renominate the incumbent president really represented the view of
the majority of people.

Sayidiman told reporters after addressing a seminar on the
existing dichotomy of indigenous and non-indigenous people
yesterday that Amien's suggestion for a national poll would work
if the dominant Golkar supported the idea.

"The idea turns out to be meaningless as Golkar, which
controls the majority of seats in the People's Consultative
Assembly (MPR), has dismissed the idea," he said.

Golkar has 498 of the 1,000 Assembly seats.

The chairman of the Golkar faction in the MPR, Ginandjar
Kartasasmita, said Monday that Golkar would not listen to
external criticism of its commitment to renominate Soeharto for
the 1998/2003 presidency.

Ginandjar also dismissed the idea of holding a national poll
to reconfirm whether Soeharto was the real choice of Indonesians.

Golkar chairman Harmoko formally declared the organization's
decision to renominate Soeharto in a ceremony of its 33rd
anniversary on Oct. 19.

Political observers have said that Golkar's announcement of
its presidential candidate five months ahead of the presidential
election was part of a maneuver to influence other factions in
the Assembly to do the same.

Officials of the two minority factions -- the United
Development Party (PPP), represented by 134 legislators in the
Assembly, and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), represented
by 16 legislators -- have individually indicated that they would
also renominate Soeharto for president.

The Armed Forces faction, however, has been silent on the
presidential succession issue, except for saying that it would
support whoever is the people's best choice. The Armed Forces,
whose members do not vote, are represented by 113 legislators in
the Assembly.

Members of the 1,000-seat MPR will convene next March to elect
a president and vice president and endorse the 1998/2003 State
Policy Guidelines. (imn)