Analysts doubt polling on next president

JAKARTA (JP): Two senior military analysts welcomed yesterday the idea of a national poll on President Soeharto's acceptability, but expressed doubts that it could be carried out successfully.

The deputy governor of the National Resilience Institute, Juwono Sudarsono, and a former governor of the institute, Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, both said they thought the national poll proposal was a good one in principle.

"I have no argument against the poll idea," Juwono told reporters after addressing a seminar at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

But Juwono said it would be very difficult to find respondents who would give their honest opinion on the issue of Indonesia's leadership succession.

"There will always be a statistical bias in their answers," he said.

Juwono said it was not the cultural tradition of most Indonesians to be straightforward when expressing their opinion.

The national poll suggestion was made last Friday by political observer Amien Rais, who said a poll could help to find out whether the majority of Indonesians really want to reelect Soeharto.

Amien said he did not believe that Golkar's decision to renominate the incumbent president really represented the view of the majority of people.

Sayidiman told reporters after addressing a seminar on the existing dichotomy of indigenous and non-indigenous people yesterday that Amien's suggestion for a national poll would work if the dominant Golkar supported the idea.

"The idea turns out to be meaningless as Golkar, which controls the majority of seats in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), has dismissed the idea," he said.

Golkar has 498 of the 1,000 Assembly seats.

The chairman of the Golkar faction in the MPR, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, said Monday that Golkar would not listen to external criticism of its commitment to renominate Soeharto for the 1998/2003 presidency.

Ginandjar also dismissed the idea of holding a national poll to reconfirm whether Soeharto was the real choice of Indonesians.

Golkar chairman Harmoko formally declared the organization's decision to renominate Soeharto in a ceremony of its 33rd anniversary on Oct. 19.

Political observers have said that Golkar's announcement of its presidential candidate five months ahead of the presidential election was part of a maneuver to influence other factions in the Assembly to do the same.

Officials of the two minority factions -- the United Development Party (PPP), represented by 134 legislators in the Assembly, and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), represented by 16 legislators -- have individually indicated that they would also renominate Soeharto for president.

The Armed Forces faction, however, has been silent on the presidential succession issue, except for saying that it would support whoever is the people's best choice. The Armed Forces, whose members do not vote, are represented by 113 legislators in the Assembly.

Members of the 1,000-seat MPR will convene next March to elect a president and vice president and endorse the 1998/2003 State Policy Guidelines. (imn)