Analysts agree PDI rift will cost votes in 1997
JAKARTA (JP): The Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) split has squandered the party's best chance of an improved showing in the 1997 poll, analysts say.
In separate interviews with The Jakarta Post yesterday, three political observers from top universities agreed that the minority party will not reap anything positive from the covetous conflict.
Contributing their opinions were Arbi Sanit and Maswadi Rauf from the University of Indonesia, and Ramlan Surbakti from Airlangga University in Surabaya.
They were divided on whether the rift was engineered by the government or whether it was worsened by the political ambitions of the rival leaders.
Arbi Sanit said the government intervention worsened the leadership rift in the party -- an uneasy alliance between Christian and nationalist forces.
"The government is using Soerjadi as their ace," Arbi said.
Soerjadi was elected PDI chief at a government-backed congress designed to oust Megawati Soekarnoputri. She was elected by popular vote in a 1993 extraordinary party congress, and continues to claim to be the legitimate chief of the relatively outspoken party.
The congress has enraged party activists loyal to Megawati, daughter of the late President Sukarno.
About 5,000 of her supporters clashed with security officers last week during a demonstration near the Ministry of Home Affairs.
Arbi said the government would like to see the fracas continue.
"The government wants to see Soerjadi live up to his concessions to the government in exchange for his election," he said.
The government wants Soerjadi to fix the PDI leadership split in East Java which officials fear will retard next year's election, Arbi said. He added that Soerjadi will have to indirectly help Golkar win more votes.
Golkar lost 16 House of Representatives seats to PDI in 1992, and one seat to the United Development Party. It thereby had its customary majority reduced from 73 percent to 68 percent.
PDI, the smallest but most outspoken of the three sanctioned political organizations, is tremendously popular among young voters.
Ramlan Surbakti from Airlangga University predicted PDI would face many difficulties consolidating itself.
"PDI will be limping in the 1997 election and the government is well aware of this. They even want this to happen," he told The Jakarta Post by telephone.
"The government backed PDI's controversial congress so it could sweep out Megawati. But I think they underestimate Megawati's massive grassroots backing," he said.
"I think the government will make Megawati a scapegoat for the political instability that may occur as the result of its wrong assessment," he said.
Ramlan, however, speculated that there is light at the end of the dark tunnel called PDI.
"Megawati is fully aware of the government's scheme. She will let the public judge who is right," he said.
"This will trigger off a new PDI. The public's version. The institutionalized PDI will decay and a new kind of party will emerge supported by the public," he said.
Arbi's and Ramlan's argument that the government is behind the PDI chaos was disputed by Maswadi Rauf.
"Do not blame outsiders. If they keep on blaming outsiders the party will forget that they have an acute ailment. It began way before the congress," said Maswadi, the head of the University of Indonesia's department of political science.
"I think we have to be realistic. If Megawati does not back off she will lose. Megawati should compromise with the other camp," said Maswadi. "If there is no sign of any compromise, the government will announce that Soerjadi is the legitimate leader."
Maswadi sees fault on both sides.
"Megawati's side never wants to accommodate the other side's interests. They think they alone are right," he said. "On the other hand, Soerjadi has no power to do anything. I do not agree with the opinion that Soerjadi can giveaway votes to Golkar. I also do not agree that Megawati's presence would bolster PDI's votes. It would be too simple." (06/20)
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