Analysts agree PDI rift will cost votes in 1997
Analysts agree PDI rift will cost votes in 1997
JAKARTA (JP): The Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) split has
squandered the party's best chance of an improved showing in the
1997 poll, analysts say.
In separate interviews with The Jakarta Post yesterday, three
political observers from top universities agreed that the
minority party will not reap anything positive from the covetous
conflict.
Contributing their opinions were Arbi Sanit and Maswadi Rauf
from the University of Indonesia, and Ramlan Surbakti from
Airlangga University in Surabaya.
They were divided on whether the rift was engineered by the
government or whether it was worsened by the political ambitions
of the rival leaders.
Arbi Sanit said the government intervention worsened the
leadership rift in the party -- an uneasy alliance between
Christian and nationalist forces.
"The government is using Soerjadi as their ace," Arbi said.
Soerjadi was elected PDI chief at a government-backed congress
designed to oust Megawati Soekarnoputri. She was elected by
popular vote in a 1993 extraordinary party congress, and
continues to claim to be the legitimate chief of the relatively
outspoken party.
The congress has enraged party activists loyal to Megawati,
daughter of the late President Sukarno.
About 5,000 of her supporters clashed with security officers
last week during a demonstration near the Ministry of Home
Affairs.
Arbi said the government would like to see the fracas
continue.
"The government wants to see Soerjadi live up to his
concessions to the government in exchange for his election," he
said.
The government wants Soerjadi to fix the PDI leadership split
in East Java which officials fear will retard next year's
election, Arbi said. He added that Soerjadi will have to
indirectly help Golkar win more votes.
Golkar lost 16 House of Representatives seats to PDI in 1992,
and one seat to the United Development Party. It thereby had its
customary majority reduced from 73 percent to 68 percent.
PDI, the smallest but most outspoken of the three sanctioned
political organizations, is tremendously popular among young
voters.
Ramlan Surbakti from Airlangga University predicted PDI would
face many difficulties consolidating itself.
"PDI will be limping in the 1997 election and the government
is well aware of this. They even want this to happen," he told
The Jakarta Post by telephone.
"The government backed PDI's controversial congress so it
could sweep out Megawati. But I think they underestimate
Megawati's massive grassroots backing," he said.
"I think the government will make Megawati a scapegoat for the
political instability that may occur as the result of its wrong
assessment," he said.
Ramlan, however, speculated that there is light at the end of
the dark tunnel called PDI.
"Megawati is fully aware of the government's scheme. She will
let the public judge who is right," he said.
"This will trigger off a new PDI. The public's version. The
institutionalized PDI will decay and a new kind of party will
emerge supported by the public," he said.
Arbi's and Ramlan's argument that the government is behind the
PDI chaos was disputed by Maswadi Rauf.
"Do not blame outsiders. If they keep on blaming outsiders the
party will forget that they have an acute ailment. It began way
before the congress," said Maswadi, the head of the University of
Indonesia's department of political science.
"I think we have to be realistic. If Megawati does not back
off she will lose. Megawati should compromise with the other
camp," said Maswadi. "If there is no sign of any compromise, the
government will announce that Soerjadi is the legitimate leader."
Maswadi sees fault on both sides.
"Megawati's side never wants to accommodate the other side's
interests. They think they alone are right," he said. "On the
other hand, Soerjadi has no power to do anything. I do not agree
with the opinion that Soerjadi can giveaway votes to Golkar. I
also do not agree that Megawati's presence would bolster PDI's
votes. It would be too simple." (06/20)
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