Analyst puts more pressure on opposition parties to unite
JAKARTA (JP): A foreign political analyst suggested on Thursday that the three top opposition forces -- the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) -- should form a coalition to oppose the ruling Golkar party and to gain the majority in the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).
James van Zorge, editor-in-chief of Van Zorge's Report, a biweekly publication on Indonesian politics and economy, told The Jakarta Post that Golkar, with the Islamic parties' alliance, "would probably need no more than 25 percent of votes to still have a good chance of winning in the MPR".
The Assembly consists of 500 members of the House of Representatives, including 38 non-elected members of the military, plus 200 appointees. Of the total, 135 will be regional representatives -- each of the 27 provinces assigns five representatives from regional legislative councils.
The other 65 are from so-called functional groups, representing specific sectors of society such as ethnic and religious minorities, academics and artists.
Previously, appointees to the MPR were chosen by Soeharto. In November, the MPR will elect a new president.
"If PDI Perjuangan, along with PKB, cannot get more than 50 or 55 percent of the vote, then I think they may have to play smarter politics," said Van Zorge, an American consultant who has lived in Indonesia for more than 11 years.
He said that PDI Perjuangan leader Megawati Soekarnoputri must take the initiative to ask PAN leader Amien Rais to form a "triumvirate" to oppose Golkar.
On Thursday afternoon, results showed PDI Perjuangan retaining its strong lead, leaving Golkar trailing in third place but apparently gaining on second-placed PKB.
But tempers were fraying as results trickled in, with less than 10 percent of an estimated 112 million ballots counted.
The delay has drawn warnings from foreign observers that it could fuel suspicions of vote-tampering in the country's first free elections after three decades of iron rule by former president Soeharto's Golkar.
"If she (Megawati) does not take the leadership position in forging that alliance then she stands a good chance of losing," Van Zorge said.
He also said that Megawati, Amien and PKB leader Abdurrahman Wahid "must settle their ego problems" and come together to form a more solid opposition coalition.
Van Zorge acknowledged that the Indonesian Military (TNI) would be the kingmaker if there is a very tight race between the opposition coalition and the Golkar-Islamic parties coalition.
"TNI historically is a secular-nationalist organization, so I think it is a better fit between the TNI and the secular- nationalist parties such as PDI Perjuangan and PKB. I think they will feel less comfortable with a Golkar-Islamic alliance," he said.
"Some senior military officers have been dismayed with (President) B.J. Habibie's East Timor policy, because he went against the military's thinking on how to solve the East Timor issue, so I think Habibie has problems with the military and the military has a better fit ideologically with the secular- nationalist parties," Van Zorge added.
The government said in January it was prepared to let East Timor go if East Timorese rejected their offer of autonomy in the August vote. (byg)