An ultimatum for peace?

In their effort to take the shortest way towards a quick solution of the Bosnian crisis, Western countries -- supported by Russia -- are now trying to introduce take-it-or-leave-it diplomacy. The United States, together with major West European powers, frustrated by the prolonged hostility and the Serbian rebuff, have threatened to punish whichever party dares to reject their peace plan, which Russia supports.

The "carrot or stick" approach is perhaps the West's best alternative in a tug-of-war situation with Moscow, which has tried hard to obstruct any punishment of Serbia for its aggression. Although Russia has warned Serb leaders that the peace plan is the best it can obtain, and hinted that Moscow could no longer defend them if they rejected it, the final answer from the Serbs remains to be seen.

Russians shoulder the responsibility of pushing the Serbs into accepting it, a job which they may not find so easy. Confusingly, Serbian leaders have told their patrons in Moscow they have lost control of their generals in the fields.

No matter what response the warring parties give, the ultimatum will continue to seem peculiar. It constitutes a diplomatic farce, in that the United States and major European powers, who proclaim themselves beacons of human rights and democracy, are in essence punishing the victims of aggression by forcing them to accept an unjust deal involving the surrender of an almost equal portion of territory to the aggressors, who are in the minority.

The newly-formed Bosnia-Croatia federation will perhaps accept this humiliating capitulation which has been labeled peace. Bosnian leaders, who have had to overlook Croatian atrocities, have apparently come to realize that there is no way for them to win the war, even if the United Nations lifts the arms embargo.

If Russia fails to bring Serbian leaders to their senses, will the West be able to carry out its ultimatum? During the last 27 months the two Serbian leaders, Slobodan Milosevic and Ridovan Karadzic, have proven themselves to be indifferent to the West's ultimatums and air attacks.

The question now is, if the Serbs reject the peace plan, in what way can the West and Russia punish them? The Western countries have opposed the idea of sending land troops to Bosnia, while many Western military leaders believe it would be impossible to teach the Serbs a lesson without repeating what the Allied forces did in Iraq during the Gulf War. Comparatively the Serbs are more tenacious fighters than the Iraqis.

Another question is whether the West is more united now than before. It is also worth remembering that during the much drummed-up air strikes against the Serbs earlier this year, even firm allies like Britain and the United States were deeply divided over how to use air power. Such a difference of opinion also existed between the West and Russia and between NATO and the United Nations.

However that may be, the West may now have eliminated all the hurdles between them and Russia, enabling a tougher stance today. The current peace design is clearly aimed at legitimatizing their failure to react more swiftly when the crisis first exploded.

Even if the Serbs do accept the plan, that may not mean the problems will evaporate automatically. For example, which territories should the Serbs, who now hold 73 percent of Bosnia, surrender, and how to make them totally withdraw.

Whether the West will be able to make their peace ultimatum a success or not, the diplomatic move itself is an irony.