An insider's view of the strategic competition between U.S. and China

S.P. Seth, Sydney

It is instructive to hear the views of an insider regarding the United States' global leadership, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region. During a recent visit to Australia to attend the annual Australian-American Leadership Dialog in Sydney, Richard Armitage, until recently deputy secretary of state, expounded at length on this. Even though his primary focus was on Australia- U.S. dialog, it was nevertheless couched in regional terms. For instance, he highlighted how the "whole center of gravity in the world" was shifting to Asia with the rise of China and India.

Against this backdrop, he cautioned Australia against cozying up too much with China, as it was in its interest to maintain its alliance with the United States. Which is interesting because, till recently, Washington had taken its alliance with Australia too much for granted.

According to Armitage: "I would argue that if history is a guide, that when existing great powers try to accommodate another great power (China, in this case) then there is a lot of movement of the tectonic plates."

And he added, " "If I were Australian and I was sitting here and I was beginning to feel the tectonic plates move a bit by the ascension of China, the ascension of India, then I think I would opt on the side of 'maybe I'll just keep this security alliance a while longer', because ultimately that's the guarantor that Australians very much will enjoy their lifestyle."

It must be worrying the United States a fair bit having to remind Australia to hang on with it lest China might overwhelm it. More importantly, it shows how much the level of strategic competition with China is heating up all the time. As Armitage put it bluntly, his country was in a "very active competition" with China for influence in the Pacific, and that "we're not doing very well."

Take the case of recent Sino-Russian military exercises, for instance. Even though Washington has sought to underplay the coming together of China and Russia as strategic partners, it will hardly be a welcome development. It challenges U.S. supremacy.

It is not just the Asia-Pacific region where the United States is being challenged. China and Russia are also actively seeking to eject the United States from Central Asia. The entire region is now a refurbished version of the 19th century Great Game played out between Tsarist Russia and the British Empire. Instead of the British Empire, we now have a reinvigorated and emboldened China (backed by Russia) staking its claims to the region.

And the Game now has even higher stakes because of the potential oil and gas bonanza. The U.S. oil conglomerates would like to pump oil and gas though an intricate network of pipelines through Afghanistan, to Pakistan and India and beyond the Indian Ocean; and from Azerbaijan, through Georgia, to the Turkish Mediterranean coast. It is a high stakes game in a very volatile region. China and Russia are using the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes the four former Soviet republics, to create the region into their own backyard.

China's economy is growing at a frantic speed. It has its dangers but that is another story. What is relevant here is that it is creating a rush for scarce global resources, particularly oil and gas, between China and the United States. And that scramble is going to get more acute in Central Asia (and elsewhere), regarded as potentially a major source of oil and gas reserves after the Middle East.

Returning to the Asia-Pacific region, the exclusion of the United States from the East Asia Summit, scheduled to meet in Kuala Lumpur in December, is worrying Washington. It is difficult for the United States to imagine itself being left out of an important regional Asia-Pacific forum, where it is a significant political, military and economic power.

Richard Armitage has, therefore, suggested that Australia should represent U.S. views at the forthcoming Summit. He said in Sydney, "I think there's a very large role for Australia if Australia chooses to play it, representing her own voice uniquely, but saying 'This is the American point of view', not making a judgment of it but making sure our voice can be heard."

It doesn't look like that Canberra is too keen to play the U.S. proxy, having worked hard to secure an invitation to the Summit.

China is undoubtedly a major political player in the Asia- Pacific region, but it still has a fair way to go before becoming "a formidable military power." But it is steadily heading that way. And the newly formed informal Halibut Group of U.S. allies -- comprising the United States, Japan, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand -- will be monitoring this development.

The author is a freelance writer. He can be reached at SushilPSeth@aol.com.