America's Afghan dilemma

Any American effort to intervene in Afghanistan that comes with open Russian assistance, as now seems likely, is bound to backfire. Iranian assistance, were it to materialize, would also infuriate the Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims deeply distrustful of the Shiite leadership in Tehran.

American action in Afghanistan also risks igniting an upheaval in Pakistan. Although now aligned with the United States, Pakistan fears that an effort to overthrow the Taliban would provoke a rebellion by Pashtuns in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier province. It would not take much to turn that political tinder into a firestorm that consumes the government of General Pervez Musharraf.

In the presidential campaign last year, and again this week, Mr. Bush warned against the arrogance of outsiders engaging in "nation building" in the developing world. While pondering the next move in the fight against terrorism, he should factor that caution into the military and political strategy for dealing with Afghanistan.

-- The New York Times