American internationalism and the Korean peninsula

Kim Sung-han, Institute of Foreign Affairs & National Security, The Korea Herald, Asia News Network, Seoul

After the war in Afghanistan Washington will embark on a long- term anti-terrorism war on a global scale. It will spearhead bilateral and multilateral cooperation to annihilate international terrorist networks. Bilateral cooperation is likely to involve drawing out moderate Arab countries' participation in the international anti-terror coalition.

The Bush administration, which has called for peace through power and taken a unilateral position on international issues under the leitmotif "American internationalism," will focus on multilateral cooperation (through the United Nations or regional organizations) as a way of complementing its unilateralism. However, while cooperation via multilateral organizations is a good way to build the ground for anti-terror activities, it can drag down the efficiency, and in this regard, Washington's multilateral cooperation efforts will face a certain limit.

The Middle East and Central Asia regions, where Islam fundamentalists are scattered throughout, are most likely to present themselves as the main battlefield once the United States embarks on a long-term anti-terror war after successfully concluding its military operation in Afghanistan. Therefore, these regions will be the first on the list of U.S. geopolitical priorities, while some African and Southeast Asian countries can also be included.

However, the U.S. now faces a situation where it must seek various measures for long-term anti-terror warfare and homeland defense with limited resources that an economic recession can offer. This means the U.S. is most likely to show extreme self- restraint on intervention in international conflicts that are "irrelevant to the terror issue." The terrorist acts against the U.S. and its allies thus far have been committed by those who emerged as relative victims from Washington's rather active "intervention" in international conflicts and disputes. In this light, the possibility that the U.S. will proactively intervene in future international conflicts is not very high.

Against this backdrop, Washington will stress solidarity with allies whose cooperation in the anti-terror war is crucial. What is more, it will hold up the logic that the anti-terror campaign is not confined to U.S. interests only and will thus very likely demand "burden-sharing" from the allies. The U.S. will be particularly sensible of potential allies in the anti-terror war, Russia being one, and put the expansion of NATO on the back burner for the time being.

Finally, North Korea, as one of the seven countries on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorism-sponsoring countries is receiving spotlight. There is a high likelihood that the United States, which is alert to a possible round of chemical and biological (CB) terror, will demand that North Korea, considered to be one of the possessors of CB weapons, give up these weapons. "Improving" the Geneva Agreed Framework can also be a challenge to North Korea-U.S. relations.

The Bush administration maintains that if North Korea opens its door to nuclear inspections, which will take two to four years, in 2004, or the year that key parts for light-water reactors (LWR) start being delivered to North Korea, it will push back the date of the completion of the LWR and that preparations for special inspections must thus start now.

North Korea-U.S. relations could make progress, however, if North Korea takes a step forward from its position on missile development and export and shows a cooperative attitude to the nuclear transparency issue, which is a source of concern for the Bush administration.

It took North Korea a "long, hard" 17 months after North Korea Policy Coordinator Perry's visit to Pyongyang in May 1999 to send Vice Marshal Jo Myong-rok to Washington in October 2000, right before the U.S. presidential elections. As a result, North Korea missed an important opportunity to improve ties with Washington. North Korea now faces a historic moment of decision.

It can take the U.S.-led anti-terror war as an opportunity to participate actively and "substantively" in the international anti-terror coalition, thereby creating a turning point for improving its relations with the United States and ultimately embarking on a grand journey to the establishment of peace on the Korean Peninsula.