Akbar: One last chance to play a leading role

On Wednesday Gen. (ret) Wiranto beat out Golkar Party leader Akbar Tandjung in the contest to select the party's presidential candidate.Muhammad Qodari of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), talked with The Jakarta Post's Soeryo Winoto about the emergence of the former military commander in the presidential race. Below is an excerpt of the interview.

Question: What did you think of the Golkar presidential candidate selection on Tuesday?

Answer: It became a tough political competition where Wiranto finally came out in front of Akbar. I thought Akbar was in a good position to win the race -- as Golkar leader and given his constant dedication to the party in all circumstances, including the difficult time for the party in 1999 (following the resignation of former president Soeharto). He had also just succeeded in bringing victory to Golkar in the April 5 legislative election (with over 20 percent of the vote so far).

Would you say the competition at the convention was fair and "healthy"?

The proceedings looked fair with the candidates making an effort to impress the delegates with their differing visions. However, I did hear of money "flying around" during the convention -- but it is difficult to legally prove the allegations and reports (of bribery).

What does Akbar's loss to Wiranto mean?

There are two variables that probably contributed to Akbar's defeat. The first is likely to be the effect of vote buying -- but this is highly speculative. The second is the convention participants' belief that Wiranto is the only figure who can match (popular presidential candidate from the Democratic Party) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. They are both retired Army generals.

How do you see Wiranto's victory?

Wiranto is now in an extremely good position because he is supported by the biggest political party in the country.

However, he won't reap the benefits in the near future because he will have to continue to cooperate with Akbar, who still controls the party. Wiranto must be able to work with Akbar and his supporters to harness Golkar's political machine. These factions must cooperate if Wiranto is to have a good chance of winning the president's job.

Earlier, Akbar was more popular choice for the presidential candidacy than Wiranto. Our research from March 18 to March 24 indicated that 31 percent of the convention participants would have voted for Akbar and 15 percent would have chosen Wiranto at that time.

In other research involving people from a range of political parties 8.4 percent of participants voted for Akbar while only 4.8 percent voted for Wiranto.

These phenomena illustrate the difference between the political logic of the elite and that of the people. The Golkar convention only involves party officials, whose political perceptions are different from that of the common people.

How would Wiranto's winning affect the political allegiances within Golkar?

Things will remain dynamic. It is questionable whether Wiranto will get the full support from the other four presidential candidates he defeated, especially Akbar. Akbar is in the most strategic position as the party leader.

Golkar will soon be holding its leadership meeting, which will discuss the legalization of Wiranto's presidential bid and the who would best be Wiranto's vice presidential running mate.

There are some alternatives: Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) from the National Awakening Party (PKB). The question is whether Gus Dur, a former president, will want to be vice president. Other options are Hidayat Nurwahid from the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Hasyim Muzadi, leader of Nahdlatul Ulama, or Akbar Tandjung.

Akbar has said he's not interested in the vice presidency.

Yes. That was his statement on (Tuesday) night. If Akbar refuses to contest the vice presidential spot, his political career will be finished. He has served as a minister and as Speaker of the House of Representatives and the vice presidency is the next logical step in his political career. One must also look at the people behind Akbar, who would benefit if his career was over.

So who would be Wiranto's best running mate?

People choose their leaders usually based on psychological reasons and the candidates' background, including their religion and ethnicity. A candidate's civilian or military background is not really a defining factor because generally people prefer leaders who come across highly competent, can perform well and are polite and modest.

Wiranto, a Javanese and nationalist with a military background, may prefer a companion who would share his world view. It's highly unlikely he will chose a candidate from the PKB. Gus Dur will be ruled out. Hidayat (of the PKS), a respected Muslim from Java and a civilian, may be suitable but the PKS' support for Wiranto is very limited.

Hidayat and the party's supervisory council have yet to indicate they support Wiranto. It is still doubtful whether the PKS will coalesce with Golkar as it fears the merger will only hurt it -- the PKS has built an image as a clean party.

The strongest candidate for vice president from Golkar is Akbar. This "political incest" (a phrase coined by presidential aspirant Amien Rais) is inevitable given that Wiranto needs Golkar's full political support.

But the most important thing is that Wiranto must find a way to win in the first round of the direct presidential election (on July 5 with a runoff in September if neither contestant wins a majority).

Do you see any problems if Wiranto is elected president?

The figure who is the most threatened by Wiranto's appearance is President Megawati Soekarnoputri. Susilo with his Democratic Party is enjoying the snowball effect of his popularity, while Megawati (who dismissed Susilo from her cabinet) sinks gradually and Wiranto emerges as the dark horse.

I'd prefer not to predict Wiranto's future if he became president. But he is facing many problems -- allegations of human rights violations in East Timor and in the May (1998) riots in Jakarta. He is highly likely to face domestic and international protests.