Akbar: One last chance to play a leading role
Akbar: One last chance to play a leading role
On Wednesday Gen. (ret) Wiranto beat out Golkar Party leader
Akbar Tandjung in the contest to select the party's presidential
candidate.Muhammad Qodari of the Indonesian Survey Institute
(LSI), talked with The Jakarta Post's Soeryo Winoto about the
emergence of the former military commander in the presidential
race. Below is an excerpt of the interview.
Question: What did you think of the Golkar presidential
candidate selection on Tuesday?
Answer: It became a tough political competition where Wiranto
finally came out in front of Akbar. I thought Akbar was in a good
position to win the race -- as Golkar leader and given his
constant dedication to the party in all circumstances, including
the difficult time for the party in 1999 (following the
resignation of former president Soeharto). He had also just
succeeded in bringing victory to Golkar in the April 5
legislative election (with over 20 percent of the vote so far).
Would you say the competition at the convention was fair and
"healthy"?
The proceedings looked fair with the candidates making an
effort to impress the delegates with their differing visions.
However, I did hear of money "flying around" during the
convention -- but it is difficult to legally prove the
allegations and reports (of bribery).
What does Akbar's loss to Wiranto mean?
There are two variables that probably contributed to Akbar's
defeat. The first is likely to be the effect of vote buying --
but this is highly speculative. The second is the convention
participants' belief that Wiranto is the only figure who can
match (popular presidential candidate from the Democratic Party)
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. They are both retired Army generals.
How do you see Wiranto's victory?
Wiranto is now in an extremely good position because he is
supported by the biggest political party in the country.
However, he won't reap the benefits in the near future because
he will have to continue to cooperate with Akbar, who still
controls the party. Wiranto must be able to work with Akbar and
his supporters to harness Golkar's political machine. These
factions must cooperate if Wiranto is to have a good chance of
winning the president's job.
Earlier, Akbar was more popular choice for the presidential
candidacy than Wiranto. Our research from March 18 to March 24
indicated that 31 percent of the convention participants would
have voted for Akbar and 15 percent would have chosen Wiranto at
that time.
In other research involving people from a range of political
parties 8.4 percent of participants voted for Akbar while only
4.8 percent voted for Wiranto.
These phenomena illustrate the difference between the
political logic of the elite and that of the people. The Golkar
convention only involves party officials, whose political
perceptions are different from that of the common people.
How would Wiranto's winning affect the political allegiances
within Golkar?
Things will remain dynamic. It is questionable whether Wiranto
will get the full support from the other four presidential
candidates he defeated, especially Akbar. Akbar is in the most
strategic position as the party leader.
Golkar will soon be holding its leadership meeting, which will
discuss the legalization of Wiranto's presidential bid and the
who would best be Wiranto's vice presidential running mate.
There are some alternatives: Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) from
the National Awakening Party (PKB). The question is whether Gus
Dur, a former president, will want to be vice president. Other
options are Hidayat Nurwahid from the Prosperous Justice Party
(PKS) and Hasyim Muzadi, leader of Nahdlatul Ulama, or Akbar
Tandjung.
Akbar has said he's not interested in the vice presidency.
Yes. That was his statement on (Tuesday) night. If Akbar
refuses to contest the vice presidential spot, his political
career will be finished. He has served as a minister and as
Speaker of the House of Representatives and the vice presidency
is the next logical step in his political career. One must also
look at the people behind Akbar, who would benefit if his career
was over.
So who would be Wiranto's best running mate?
People choose their leaders usually based on psychological
reasons and the candidates' background, including their religion
and ethnicity. A candidate's civilian or military background is
not really a defining factor because generally people prefer
leaders who come across highly competent, can perform well and
are polite and modest.
Wiranto, a Javanese and nationalist with a military
background, may prefer a companion who would share his world
view. It's highly unlikely he will chose a candidate from the
PKB. Gus Dur will be ruled out. Hidayat (of the PKS), a respected
Muslim from Java and a civilian, may be suitable but the PKS'
support for Wiranto is very limited.
Hidayat and the party's supervisory council have yet to
indicate they support Wiranto. It is still doubtful whether the
PKS will coalesce with Golkar as it fears the merger will only
hurt it -- the PKS has built an image as a clean party.
The strongest candidate for vice president from Golkar is
Akbar. This "political incest" (a phrase coined by presidential
aspirant Amien Rais) is inevitable given that Wiranto needs
Golkar's full political support.
But the most important thing is that Wiranto must find a way
to win in the first round of the direct presidential election (on
July 5 with a runoff in September if neither contestant wins a
majority).
Do you see any problems if Wiranto is elected president?
The figure who is the most threatened by Wiranto's appearance
is President Megawati Soekarnoputri. Susilo with his Democratic
Party is enjoying the snowball effect of his popularity, while
Megawati (who dismissed Susilo from her cabinet) sinks gradually
and Wiranto emerges as the dark horse.
I'd prefer not to predict Wiranto's future if he became
president. But he is facing many problems -- allegations of human
rights violations in East Timor and in the May (1998) riots in
Jakarta. He is highly likely to face domestic and international
protests.