Air strikes will not be enough

We appear to have reached the point where threats are likely to be put into action if Western diplomacy is to have any legitimacy. Air strikes are the weapon of choice. Belgrade and Serbia are buttoning down for the expected attack, which appears unavoidable.

What is a lot less clear is just what the strikes are expected to achieve. No doubt NATO has the capability to wipe out a fairly negligible Yugoslav air force, take out radar installations and other air defenses and make some very loud bangs in the process. Inevitably there will be some "collateral damage" in the process and innocent people, hapless conscripts and soldiers will be killed.

But while they may inflict some military damage, air strikes have in fact no capacity to force Mr. Milosevic to do anything. Only Western troops on the ground in Kosovo could do that, but there is little or no will among NATO governments to take such a politically risky step.

It means the West, as in Bosnia, is taking sides in a Balkan conflict, but taking the side of a group it is (probably quite reasonably) not prepared to back to the hilt.

Nor does the West have any real leverage. The Albanian diaspora is ready to channel funds, and there is a plentiful supply of arms circulating in the region thanks to the recent implosion of the Albanian state which led to the dispersal of the country's entire military arsenal into the general population, and from there across the border.

The general intention of the U.S. and NATO is laudable. With winter menacing thousands of ethnic Albanian refugees hiding from Serb troops in the mountains, something has to be done to address the looming humanitarian disaster. But the situation must be approached sensibly and rationally. Air strikes may be morally defensible, but on their own they are not going to solve, or even have much impact, on the problems in Kosovo.

There are no easy solutions. Acceptance of that fact would be a good place to start for the Western alliance.

-- The Bangkok Post